Today, I move along to reviewing the six hitters whose 2018 xBABIP marks fell significantly short of their actual BABIP marks, suggesting serious downside in 2019. Let’s see how they ended up performing.
Today, I move onto reviewing my preseason BABIP calls, starting with the surgers. In late February, I used my xBABIP equation to identify eight hitters whose actual BABIP marks were significantly below their xBABIP marks, suggesting a potentially dramatic BABIP jump in 2019. Let’s find out if that did indeed occur for these hitters.
In mid-February, I compared the xHR/FB rate my equation spit out to the batter’s actual mark in 2018 to share a list of six batters the formula would suggest possessed significant HR/FB rate downside in 2019. The record home run rate this year is going to probably make the picks look bad, but let’s take a gander at the names and the results anyway to find out if that was indeed the case.
In mid-February, I compared the xHR/FB rate my equation spit out to the batter’s actual mark in 2018 to share a list of nine batters the formula would suggest possessed significant HR/FB rate upside in 2019. The record home run rate this year is going to probably make the picks look good, but let’s take a gander at the names and the results anyway to find out if that was indeed the case.
Note: For my next few articles, I’m going to examine the hitters and pitchers who underperformed and overperformed in 2019. Each article may spawn off others since some areas may need to be explored in more detail. After performing horribly in 2019, I need to take take a hard look at why I missed last season and what I can do to improve.
I’m going to start with the one player class every owner hopes to hit on, breakout hitters. A couple of these cheaply acquired star hitters can help carry a team. It could be a prospect turned uber-prospect (e.g. Pete Alonso) or just a hitter displaying new skills (e.g. Ketel Marte). I’m going to dig into the reason these breakouts were not draft-day targets and look for any common themes.
To get the test subjects, I ran our auction calculator for end-of-season production and then compared the auction dollars to the values created from their ADP. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. Using this method, I found 62 hitters who outperformed their value by $10 or more.
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Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 First Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball. Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed). You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.
Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (offense based on linear weights), you’ll notice speed is less of a factor here than Paul’s rotisserie ranking lists. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for OBP, OPS, or sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review. If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.
In 2019, the 29 qualified first basemen averaged the following production:
After doing an overview of the juiced ball and a focus on pitchers, I started down a path to find out which hitters would be most affected by the juiced ball. I didn’t know it was going to be overrun with thorn bushes and misleading signs. The process was nearly impossible for the simple fact that the league’s hitting profile changed. Besides even considering the ball, batters were hitting more flyball, hitting the ball harder, and pulling it over short corner fences. I tried to find one answer but ended finding another.
One key to this analysis is that I wanted to keep it simple. I didn’t want to pump the data into some neural network for a more “correct” answer where I’d not sure of the factors in play and how each one was weighted. I wanted some clarity.
One set of factors I initially used was the StatCast information but I didn’t use it for the final analysis because it didn’t add any accuracy. Groundball rate is almost a perfect proxy for Launch Angle. Home run per batted ball is basically a Barrel. Also, StatCast data has only been available since 2015 when the juiced ball started. There is no baseline data for the deadened ball period.
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With the 2019 regular season in the books, now is a good time to look back and see which MLB teams provided fantasy owners with the most valuable hitters this year.
This chart looks at players currently ranked in the top twelve at each offensive position (and top fifty for outfield) based on Rotowire’s earned auction values (roto scoring), broken down by team. If you’re curious about which players where ranked where, a more detailed breakdown of the ranks are found here. If a player was traded, the team which they played the majority of their games with was given credit. I also did not include DH ranks. While there are many players that can provide value outside of the top-12 (or 50 in the case of outfield), this exercise is meant to look at which players are providing high-end value, what teams they are coming from, and a bit about the what the implications for 2020 might be.
… but not by much for teams I just owned …
My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.
I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent
I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
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The day after the regular season ended, MLB.com’s (and FanGraphs alum) Mike Petriello posted the following tidbit on Twitter.
Have to admit, "Paul Goldschmidt & Christian Walker having almost the exact same season" is not exactly what I expected after the ARI/STL trade:
Goldschmidt
.260/.346/.476
.346 wOBA
11% BB
24% K
.216 ISOWalker
.259/.348/.476
.346 wOBA
11% BB
26% K
.217 ISO— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) September 30, 2019
Like Mike, I was surprised by the similarities between the Diamondbacks’ former and current first basemen. I was well aware that Paul Goldschmidt had taken a step back this season, and I also knew that Christian Walker had acquitted himself well as Goldschmidt’s replacement in Arizona. Even so, it didn’t occur to me that this pairing could create a dilemma on draft day in 2020.
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