Yesterday, I listed and discussed a selection of hitters who have gained the most flyball/line drive exit velocity this year versus last. Today, I’ll list and discuss the hitters on the flip side — those that have lost the most EV. What follows is a list of hitters who have lost at least six miles per hour of FB/LD EV. Small sample caveats apply.
It’s still super early, with only some teams playing as many as 10 games. And yet, those 10 games already represent 16.7% of the season! CRAZY. So yes, it’s still super early to evaluate most performances, but by the time we have enough of a sample to make better judgments, the season will have ended. So like I discussed last week with pitcher fastball velocity, let’s look at another underlying skill metric that stabilizes more quickly than a results-based metric — exit velocity. I like barrels more, but with the tiny samples so far, one more or less barrel will make a significant difference in barrel rate, so it’s simply too soon. So we’ll stick with average fly ball/line drive exit velocity, as it’s pretty straightforward — all else being equal, the faster the bat meets the ball, the further the ball will travel.
I went through the few National League lineups to see if there was a change in a player’s value different from preseason expectations. Here are my thoughts on each team.
Braves
Brewers
One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well. Some of these are difficult cuts, but consider that we’re the equivalent of about 3 weeks in at this point so I think your bar for cutting someone needs to be lower than past seasons.
This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.
Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+
Pickings are a little slim behind the dish, but Jansen is off to a decent start after being highly touted in 2019 and failing to deliver on the hype. He’s hitting .235/.381/.412 with 1 HR and matching strikeout and walk rates at 19%.
Meanwhile, Molina has sputtered out of the gate at .222/.222/.222 in 18 PA. It’s obviously super early and veteran catcher will likely find his level, but he’s not so good that you must hang onto him in a 1-catcher league.
I started digging into pitch velocities and documented everyone who has changed. Two trends immediately appeared. The overall velocities were down and a few pitchers experienced major drops.
Normally in Spring Training, teams build a pitcher up to their maximum velocity and then start increasing the innings. At this point, all starters should have been ramped up to a full workload with their next start being in the regular season. Many don’t seem ready.
First off, I’m a little suspect of the velocity reading. Back in 2017, MLB installed new pitch-tracking systems and the velocities were high. A new system has been installed (Hawkeye) so something will likely be off. It is the MLB who can’t find a home for a team and decides to expand the playoffs with the season starting … that day. MLB going to MLB.
A second possible cause could the unique ramp up to the 2020 season. Teams have implemented different approaches to keeping their pitchers ready. Some of the velocities are down 5 mph from two separate parks. Maybe the pitchers are still worn down from the long postseason and four-month quarantine. Of the cameras are off. Or both.
Fastball velocities are down for a reason, but the cause(s) remains unknown. Fantasy owners need to remain calm and hopefully, in a few days, the truth will be known.
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Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions (which I’ll publish on Thursday), I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders are even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe would be considered bold or is already projected to finish top five in the category. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000. This is more for fun and dreaming of what could be than any serious attempt at being right. That said, if there’s any season to get a bold league leader choice correct, this is it. We might see some very surprising names atop the categorical leaderboards.
We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.
Note: If you read this on Saturday evening, I’m likely to add a few names as I do some more research and more news rolls in.
Projecting this season’s FAAB is going to be a nightmare. In past seasons, the process seemed fruitless at times but it’s going to be even more of a mess this season. Most leagues are giving teams the same amount of FAAB to cover a third of the season that will lead to some high dollar desperate bidding. Additionally, when a league was drafted matters. For instance, I have two leagues running FAAB tomorrow. The one from early March I need to clean up (e.g. one had Trey Mancini) and the other I drafted last so I may gamble on some different bullpen arms.
In this article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS used a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed.
Additionally, I’m going to add anyone else I fill is appropriate.
On recent episodes of The Sleeper & The Bust, Justin and I picked pitching and hitting league leaders for the upcoming season, highlighting a main pick and then someone to keep an eye on. I wanted to take it a step further and pick some guys who could lead the league in the 5×5 categories going pick-200 or later. Here are the pitchers and today we’ll cover hitters.
BATTING AVERAGE
Jesse Winker, CIN | Pick 345
A career .285 hitter, Winker dipped down to .269 last year when his BABIP was at a career-low .286, but he was at .332 from 2017-18 and hit a cool .299 in 471 PA. He has the talent to push a mid-.300s AVG in a short sample, especially if he’s protected a bit against lefties (.176 career AVG), though not too much or else he won’t qualify for the batting title. I don’t really understand Winker’s ADP. Even acknowledging his poor defense and inability to hit lefties, he’s better than pick 345 with a career 122 wRC+ as part of a fantastic lineup.
Also consider: Howie Kendrick (254) – Not a terribly daring secondary pick as he ripped a cool .344 last year which would’ve led the league and now the NL DH ensures a full-time role for the excellent hitter.
Yesterday, I discussed five starting pitchers to buy cheap, with the idea that over a smaller sample of games this season, ratio categories are going to be much more volatile than counting stats, and therefore should be discounted on draft/auction day. Instead, perhaps we should just buy strikeouts and cross our fingers the ratios settle into a good range after 10-12 games started. Today, let’s apply the “discount ratios, buy counting stats” concept to hitters. This time, I’m going to ignore batting average and buy power.
07/07/20
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