In a recent chat, Paul was asked the following question:
Challenge accepted. By using our auction calculator, I wrote a procedure for any league type which creates an ADP to auction value formula. I will step through the process for any league and provide a few standard equations.
Step one: Set up your league settings in our auction calculator.
Go through all the boxes and make sure each option is set correctly especially the number of bench players to bid on. For a projection, use the Depth Charts.
Additionally, we need to force enter the league’s actual pitcher ownership rates. Without doing this step, the top end pitchers get way overvalued.
This procedure can’t be done by just putting a ‘9’ (or your league allowed pitchers ) in the ‘P’ box. The coding will punch out a ton of relief pitchers and teams usually own just the closers. To get around this limitation, put 1400 IP in the ‘min IP’ box (even if the limit is less) and ‘2’ in the ‘RP’ box, and ‘7’ in the ‘P’ box. These settings force the program to get high inning starters but also forces teams to roster two closers.
Step 2: Export and Combine output for Hitters and Pitchers
Once the projections are generated, export the values (upper right side of the projection’s table) for both hitters and pitchers.
Now, open both spreadsheets and combine them into one list. Figure out the number of hitters (e.g. 15 team*14 hitters/team = 210 hitters) and pitchers to be combined. If a person wants to cheat, just take every player at or over $1. Sometimes, an extra player or two will be added because of auction calculator rounding errors.
Step 3: Find the formula
Select all the data points and open them in a scatter plot. With the scatter plot, add a logarithmic trend line along with the trend line equation. For example, the trend line equation for a standard 15-team league is -8.608*ln(ADP)+53.1 (r-squared of .9748) as seen in this image.
This method’s errors are excessive dollar values for the first few and last few picks. There is just no reason to try to improve on the above r-squared. Owners need to understand these limitations exist.
I have decided to go ahead and create some formulas for different sized leagues using a standard 5×5 roto league size of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.
10-Team: -9.233*ln(ADP) + 52.4 (R² = .984)
12-Team: -9.097*ln(ADP) + 53.6 (R² = .981)
15-Team: -8.608*ln(ADP) + 53.1 (R² = .975)
20-Team: -8.150*ln(ADP) + 53.2 (R² = 0.960)
By projecting the first multiplier for a different number of teams and assume the final constant is 53, here’s a master equation.
((.1126 *# of Team) – 10.37)*ln(ADP) + 53
An owner just needs to insert an ADP value and then they should have an approximate auction value for their league. Let me know if you have any questions because that’s it for this edition of “Paul Making Work for Jeff”.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.