Well done, Mr. Schwarber
That’s 40 or more home runs in four of his last five seasons. Schwarber and Aaron Judge are tied with the most homers (227) since 2022.
On the Agenda:
Building on my piece a couple of weeks ago on the normalization of Z-O, it felt like there was a lot more left on the bone in terms of finding out if permanent changes to a hitter’s approach are possible, and if so, how long does it take for a new baseline to be established? In the first piece, we followed up on a discussion on X between redsoxstats and Eno Sarris, and introduced Z-O as a metric and the stickiness of it as a metric for plate discipline.
It seems to be, in general, once a hitter establishes his baseline, it is difficult to deviate too much away from that level throughout his career. This is due to how inherent a hitter’s approach is at the plate. Hitters have tendencies baked into their profile, and shifting from that is difficult. But this opened up a slew of further questions relating to how baselines are established: is it possible to establish a new baseline? If a hitter improves or declines from this baseline, how are we able to establish a new Z-O baseline (if at all)?
Below are the latest in significant position player playing time changes for the last two weeks as we head into the homestretch of the season:
| Name | Team | Positions | Old_PT | New_PT | PT Change | Old PA | New PA | PA Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Báez | STL | LF, RF | 7% | 78% | 71% | 9 | 104 | 95 | Came up to the bigs with a bang and starting every day |
| Darell Hernaiz | ATH | 3B, SS | 5% | 66% | 61% | 7 | 88 | 82 | Injury-ravaged A’s need help |
| Zac Veen | COL | RF, LF | 17% | 67% | 50% | 23 | 90 | 67 | Playing against most righties since call-up |
| Turner Hill | SFG | CF, LF, RF | 7% | 54% | 47% | 9 | 72 | 63 | Playing regularly since call-up |
| Alek Thomas | LAD | CF | 1% | 45% | 44% | 1 | 60 | 59 | Filling in for Pages against RHP |
| Cody Bellinger | NYY | RF, LF, CF, 1B | 51% | 91% | 40% | 68 | 122 | 54 | Back from hamstring injury |
| Connor Norby | COL | 3B, DH, 2B, 1B, LF | 22% | 58% | 36% | 29 | 78 | 48 | Kyle Karros‘ concussion opens up PT |
| Cody Freeman | TEX | 2B, 3B, RF, LF | 11% | 45% | 34% | 15 | 60 | 46 | Has been starting regularly lately |
| Max Muncy | ATH | 3B, 2B | 16% | 50% | 34% | 21 | 67 | 46 | Ditto the Hernaiz note |
| Gustavo Campero | LAA | LF, RF, C | 3% | 34% | 31% | 4 | 46 | 42 | Called up with Wade Meckler hurt |
| Alika Williams | ATH | 2B, SS | 31% | 62% | 31% | 42 | 83 | 42 | Ditto Hernaiz, Muncy |
| Pedro Ramírez | CHC | DH, 2B, 3B | 34% | 63% | 29% | 46 | 84 | 39 | Has settled into regular 2B job since Swanson injury |
| Trevor Story | BOS | SS | 50% | 78% | 28% | 67 | 104 | 38 | Nearing return from IL, but how much will he play? |
| Roman Anthony | BOS | LF, DH, RF | 31% | 59% | 28% | 42 | 79 | 38 | Finally on a rehab assignment |
| Andrew Knizner | SFG | C | 2% | 29% | 27% | 3 | 39 | 36 | Susac injury makes him the backup C |
| Christian Moore | LAA | 2B, LF, 3B | 28% | 55% | 27% | 38 | 74 | 36 | Will be starting 2B with Schanuel out, Vaughn Grissom at 1B |
| Jorge Mateo | TBR | 2B, SS | 10% | 36% | 26% | 13 | 48 | 35 | Playing against LHP since signing |
| Tommy White | ATH | 1B, 3B, DH | 51% | 75% | 24% | 68 | 100 | 32 | Another Athletic who needs to step up with all the injuries |
| Christopher Morel | NYM | 1B | 2% | 24% | 22% | 3 | 32 | 29 | Contract selected from minors |
| Matt Shaw | CHC | RF, DH, 2B, 1B, 3B | 13% | 35% | 22% | 17 | 47 | 29 | Nearing IL return |
| Noelvi Marte | CIN | RF, DH | 30% | 10% | -20% | 40 | 13 | -27 | Optioned to minors |
| Tyler Freeman | COL | RF, CF, 2B, SS | 31% | 10% | -21% | 42 | 13 | -28 | Activated from IL, optioned to minors |
| Edgar Quero | CHW | C | 28% | 7% | -21% | 38 | 9 | -28 | Optioned to minors |
| Gavin Lux | TBR | 2B | 34% | 10% | -24% | 46 | 13 | -32 | Running out of time to return this year |
| Jim Jarvis | ATL | SS, 3B, 2B | 39% | 15% | -24% | 52 | 20 | -32 | Optioned to minors |
| Riley Greene | DET | LF, DH | 96% | 71% | -25% | 129 | 95 | -33 | Strained hamstring |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | 2B, DH | 93% | 67% | -26% | 125 | 90 | -35 | Bizarre team abandonement + knee inflammation |
| Maikel Garcia | KCR | 3B | 72% | 44% | -28% | 96 | 59 | -38 | Hamstring strain |
| Endy Rodríguez | PIT | C, DH, 1B | 62% | 31% | -31% | 83 | 42 | -42 | Could undergo season-ending hip surgery |
| Nolan Schanuel | LAA | 1B, DH | 86% | 55% | -31% | 115 | 74 | -42 | Strained oblique |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | C, DH | 89% | 56% | -33% | 119 | 75 | -44 | Strained shoulder |
| Masataka Yoshida | BOS | DH, LF | 53% | 8% | -45% | 71 | 11 | -60 | Strained hamstring |
| Edouard Julien | COL | 2B, DH | 49% | 1% | -48% | 66 | 1 | -64 | Outrighted to minors |
| Willy Adames | SFG | SS | 94% | 43% | -51% | 126 | 58 | -68 | Sprained left elbow |
| Dansby Swanson | CHC | SS | 97% | 25% | -72% | 130 | 33 | -96 | Strained oblique |
| Andy Pages | LAD | CF | 89% | 15% | -74% | 119 | 20 | -99 | Fractured hand |
| Colt Emerson | SEA | SS | 87% | 0% | -87% | 117 | 0 | -117 | Season-ending wrist surgery |
| Tyler Soderstrom | ATH | LF, 1B | 90% | 0% | -90% | 121 | 0 | -121 | Season-ending hip surgery |
Every year it seems a handful of players go on a September heater and change the destiny of their fantasy teams. Some of those players are flashes-in-the-pan, but some have staying power. Last year’s class of league winners did produce some solid breakouts, with Ben Rice leading the charge, and Iván Herrera and Daylen Lile not far behind. For players like Michael Busch and Jo Adell, strong seasons were capped off by big power outputs to end the year, helping us believe in their power carrying over to this season.
| Name | AVG | HR | R+RBI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Herrera | .276 | 8 | 34 |
| Michael Busch | .244 | 8 | 28 |
| Jo Adell | .250 | 7 | 28 |
| Daylen Lile | .391 | 6 | 39 |
| George Springer | .347 | 8 | 38 |
| Ben Rice | .316 | 4 | 28 |
Plenty of hitters increased their barrel rate per plate appearance by 3 points or more since July 1, even if we limit ourselves to hitters with 50+ plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, these hitters with higher barrel rates have improved their 90th-percentile exit velocity (EV90) and expected batting average (xBA).
The top barrel rate risers include Andrés Chaparro, Christian Yelich, Coby Mayo, Drew Gilbert, Heriberto Hernández, Lane Thomas, Luis García Jr., Luis Robert Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Rhys Hoskins, Samuel Basallo, Spencer Jones, Tim Tawa, and Tyrone Taylor.
The chart below the barrel rate difference in the rightmost column. The first three columns are numbers since July 1; the next three are the numbers from before July.
Stolen bases is one of the easier categories to quickly ascend. In the past, all you had to do was acquire Juan Pierre, Dee Strange-Gordon, or Michael Bourn, among many similar hitters, and within weeks, likely gained a couple of stolen base points. In general, we have far fewer of these types of hitters nowadays, but there are certainly two that stand out this year, both of whom will be discussed below. Let’s now review nine names to either consider acquiring or watch for an opportunity.
Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.
The callups keep rolling in and deep leaguers need to constantly pay attention. Since last week, five more have now been handing an everyday role or the potential for one. Let’s dive in.
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
Angels
• No changes
Astros
• No changes
Athletics
• With all the injuries to the team (Kurtz, Langeliers, Rooker, Soderstrom, Kuroda-Grauer, Clarke), this lineup is pathetic. Lawrence Butler couldn’t make the lineup earlier in the year, and now he’s batting cleanup. Read the rest of this entry »
He has arrived!
BREAKING: The Seattle Mariners plan to call up left-hander Kade Anderson, the top pitching prospect in baseball, to start Saturday, sources tell ESPN. Anderson, the third pick in the 2025 draft, has a 1.06 ERA over 93.1 innings with 135 strikeouts, 13 walks and 47 hits allowed.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 20, 2026
On the Agenda: