Seven Notable Barrel Rate Risers Since July

Plenty of hitters increased their barrel rate per plate appearance by 3 points or more since July 1, even if we limit ourselves to hitters with 50+ plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, these hitters with higher barrel rates have improved their 90th-percentile exit velocity (EV90) and expected batting average (xBA).

The top barrel rate risers include Andrés Chaparro, Christian Yelich, Coby Mayo, Drew Gilbert, Heriberto Hernández, Lane Thomas, Luis García Jr., Luis Robert Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Rhys Hoskins, Samuel Basallo, Spencer Jones, Tim Tawa, and Tyrone Taylor.

The chart below the barrel rate difference in the rightmost column. The first three columns are numbers since July 1; the next three are the numbers from before July.

We’ll highlight several hitters that have been barreling the ball more often and whether the outcomes have followed since July. 

Austin Riley, 3B, Braves

Riley was struggling before our arbitrary July 1 cutoff. He had eight home runs, four stolen bases, and a .207 batting average. Riley was hitting the ball hard, but had a .274 BABIP, which ballooned to .372 since July 1. That led to Riley’s increased batting average (.251) with similar plate discipline. 

Furthermore, Riley has a 15.6% HR/FB rate since July 1, up from 8.7%. That coincides with Riley nearly matching his home run total in half the plate appearances. Riley’s EV90 (90th-percentile exit velocity) increased by nearly 3 mph since July. That shows his peak power numbers improved alongside the barrel rate. For context, Riley’s 109 mph EV90 since July aligns close to 2025 (109.4 mph) and 2024 (108.4 mph). 

This is a case where fantasy managers probably should have trusted Riley’s skills to align with the luck factors (BABIP, HR/FB) leading to more production. We might not have the 30+ home run upside this season, but there’s a chance he pushes for 25 home runs with a .240 batting average by the end of the season. 

There’s a good chance Riley continues to finish the season strong, though it’s another down season. Riley might be an early bounce-back candidate, assuming his draft price dips next season. 

Christian Yelich, DH, Brewers

Yelich was coming off a bounce-back season in 2025 with 29 home runs, 16 steals, and a .264 batting average. Unfortunately, Yelich’s 9 home runs, 10 steals, and a .231 batting average weren’t what fantasy managers signed up for. After hitting five home runs and stealing five bases with a .256 batting average (.357 BABIP) before July, Yelich’s production fell. That’s evident in Yelich’s four home runs, five steals, and a .199 batting average (.239 BABIP).

Yelich has been hitting more barrels (16) since July in a smaller sample than earlier this season (9). One might guess that Yelich hitting more barrels would lead to better production. Unfortunately, Yelich’s BABIP regressed since July. In hindsight, maybe we should’ve expected regression in Yelich’s age-34 season after several injuries in 2025. That’s especially true considering Yelich had his highest HR/FB (29.6%) since 2019 and 2020, with a barrel rate (6.5%) that aligned with his career norm. 

Though Yelich is barreling the ball more, his xBA and EV90 have been similar before and after July. The other concerning note for Yelich involves his career-worst 12.6% swinging-strike rate and a 71.8% contact rate that’s over 5 points below his career norm. Yelich was fortunate with his home run rate last season, so expecting him to close out the season on a heater likely won’t happen. 

Heriberto Hernández, OF, Marlins

Hernández has been helpful in deeper leagues with a breakout season, hitting 19 home runs, stealing eight bags, and batting .228. Since Hernández is barreling the ball (10.9%) more than before July (5.8%), he is hitting more home runs (11) than before July (8). Hernández has been flashing better bat speed (74.6 mph), swinging faster more often (49.4% fast swing rate), and barreling the ball at an above-average rate (8.3%). 

Furthermore, Hernández pulls the ball into the air 23.7% of the time, helping his above-average power skills. Thankfully, Hernández hits the ball hard because his 68.4% contact rate is below the concerning 70% threshold. Hernández’s inputs of bat speed, pulled air rate, and barrels have contributed to positive power outcomes. 

That’s all impressive since Hernández hits in a home ballpark that ranks 26th in Home Run Park Factors for right-handed hitters, with an even amount of homers at home (10) and away (9) this season. Hernández will probably be a top outfield target in 2027 if he finishes the season strong. 

Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres

Earlier in the season, Merrill had been worrying us, mainly in batting average. He had eight home runs, 18 steals, and a .213 batting average through June. Merrill was unlucky with a .266 BABIP before July. The 6.4% barrel rate per plate appearance was down below his career average (8.6%). 

Since then, however, Merrill has been hitting the ball harder with a favorable BABIP (.320), which supported his .289 batting average. He has 13 home runs since July 1, with his 21.7% HR/FB up from 9% earlier in the season. After a down 2025 season, partly due to injuries, fantasy managers wondered whether Merrill’s rookie season was the outlier. 

Merrill has been barreling the ball more with the luck factors (BABIP, HR/FB) in his favor, leading to a hitting surge since July. Like Merrill’s teammates Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, he is turning it around after being a buy-low candidate earlier in the season. Merrill will surpass 25/25 with a .250 to .260 batting average, ranking as a top five hitter over the past month. 

It’s a reminder to be patient with high-end young hitters like Merrill, who have flashed the fantasy-friendly tools. 

Luis Garcia Jr., 1B/2B, Yankees

It’s wild to see Garcia’s barrel rate per plate appearance rise since July (12%), since he was already reaching career-bests in several power skill buckets. That includes Garcia’s 74.2 mph bat speed, 9.5% barrel rate per plate appearance, and an 18.4% pulled air rate. For context, Garcia’s barrel rate is over three points higher, and his pulled air rate rose by over six points this season compared to his career average.

Fantasy managers were excited about Garcia joining a better team with a home park that favors left-handed hitters for home runs. However, it’s worth highlighting that Garcia went from the 8th-best home park (109) to the 4th-best (119) in Home Run Park Factor for left-handed hitters, so he was already in a hitter-friendly park. Since Garcia joined the Yankees, they faced two left-handed starting pitchers, the two games he didn’t start, suggesting he might be a strong-side platoon option. 

It will be interesting to see how the market adjusts to Garcia’s breakout season next year since he was already flashing the fantasy-friendly power skills before July.

Tim Tawa, 1B/2B/OF, Diamondbacks

Part of Tawa’s surge since July has been playing time. Tawa has hit 14 out of his 15 barrels since July 1, coinciding with seven home runs, seven steals, and a .284 batting average. He has been showing respectable power skills, given his 74.1 mph bat speed, 6.3% barrel rate per plate appearance, and 17.3% pulled air rate. Five of Tawa’s eight home runs came from pulled batted balls, with a significantly higher bat speed (76.2 mph) and barrel rate (10.3%). 

Though Tawa might not be a week- or league-winner, he has been a deep-league contributor, hitting the ball harder and earning more playing time. Tawa’s power might be more average or slightly above, so don’t expect a massive home run surge. Regardless, Tawa has sneakily been flashing better power than expected. 

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles

Like other Orioles’ hitters, O’Neill has been underperforming expectations this season. O’Neill has a 93 wRC+ and he ranks 135th among outfielders on the Player Rater, with negative 11.1 dollars in earned value. Health has been a concern for O’Neill throughout his career, with only two seasons where he logged 400 plate appearances or more. Before July, O’Neill had been struggling with two home runs, one steal, and a .182 batting average with a .250 BABIP. When we put O’Neill’s name value aside, that’s a droppable hitter in most formats across 156 plate appearances.

Like other hitters on this list, O’Neill wasn’t barreling the ball much before July. However, since July 1, O’Neill has eight home runs, with eight of his 14 season-long barrels and a .255 batting average (.281 BABIP). Besides O’Neill being able to barrel the ball more often, luck shifted in his favor. That’s evident in O’Neill’s 4% HR/FB before July, booming to 24.2% HR/FB.

O’Neill’s overall 5.4% barrel rate per plate appearance has been three points below his career average, making us cautious on whether he will sustain the home run surge. However, O’Neill’s raw power has been dipping, with a 104.6 EV90 since July, similar to 2025 (105.4 mph) and 2024 (107.3 mph)

Power has been O’Neill’s calling card, so it was odd to see his barrel rate significantly dip this season. However, maybe O’Neill’s lingering wrist injury from late 2025 lingered into 2026. Maybe the injuries have caught up to O’Neill, as we’ve seen the bat speed drop to a carer-low (72.3 mph) after being at 74 mph (2025) and 75.2 mph (2024). This looks like a lost season for O’Neill, as a hitter that has been hurting instead of helping based on expectations.