Desperate For Steals? 9 Names To Watch

Stolen bases is one of the easier categories to quickly ascend. In the past, all you had to do was acquire Juan Pierre, Dee Strange-Gordon, or Michael Bourn, among many similar hitters, and within weeks, likely gained a couple of stolen base points. In general, we have far fewer of these types of hitters nowadays, but there are certainly two that stand out this year, both of whom will be discussed below. Let’s now review nine names to either consider acquiring or watch for an opportunity.

I came up with this list by using the ATC RoS projections, summing the projected SB and CS together (SBA = stolen base attempts) and then calculated PA/SBA. These are the guys with the most stolen base upside because they require fewer PA to attempt a stolen base, and therefore an expanded role would significantly increase their steals forecast.

Tyler Tolbert

Last week, while explaining how I managed to fumble my top FAAB stack after the MLB trade deadline in AL Tout Wars, I argued that I didn’t feel as desperate as perhaps I should have to upgrade at second base. I have been starting Tolbert there since July 6 and he’s been darn good, though he’s back to mostly serving in a strong side platoon role, as opposed to playing most days when Bobby Witt Jr. was on the IL. Then again, he has actually started in two straight games against right-handers, so perhaps his playing time will continue to be more than just a short-side platooner.

He has managed to steal an incredible 18 bases over just 122 PA, but that’s because nine of those swipes have come as a pinch runner (and also resulted in five runs scores). That’s the benefit of being a Speedy Gonzales, as even when not starting, he often gets into the game and still contributes to fantasy teams.

For someone with such limited power, he swings and misses a little too often and he should probably be hitting more grounders as well. So the profile isn’t exactly ideal for the skill set. But now I’m just nitpicking, because what mostly matters is his speed. He might not contribute much else, but he’s a near lock to swipe a couple of bags a week.

José Caballero

Yankees injuries have kept Caballero in the starting lineup and he even survived George Lombard Jr.’s promotion. He has always been a big basestealer, but he has also added power to his skill set this year by more than doubling last year’s HR/FB rate. Oddly, all his Statcast power metrics are actually down compared to last year, while his BatSpd is at a career worst, so his results are quite suspect. However, he’s upped his FB Pull% to a career best, so that has most likely helped.

He’s probably owned in most leagues, but it’s possible he’s sitting in the free agent pool in shallower formats. Batting at the bottom of the order isn’t going to be kind to his counting stats, but there’s no reason to think he won’t keep running.

Esteury Ruiz

Ahhh, it’s my old friend! Amazingly, after his 497 PA season that featured 67 steals back in 2023, he hadn’t even reached 100 PA again heading into this season. He’s gotten more of an opportunity this year with the Marlins and has enjoyed his best offensive campaign yet.

The steals have been there as usual and he’s actually on a pace that would exceed his 67 steals in 497 PA. But like Caballero, he’s also enjoyed a power breakout. Compared to his only other full season in 2023, his HardHit% is up significantly, though still well below league average, and his Barrel% has more than tripled and now is around league average. Somehow, his six homers have resulted in just 11 RBI, but he hasn’t been just a one category guy.

Ruiz isn’t playing every day, but he does start against every lefty and sometimes starts against right-handers. He’s a daily transaction target or activation when you know he’s starting, very similar to Tolbert.

Chandler Simpson

Alright, so he’s almost surely owned in the vast majority of leagues. It’s interesting that during the preseason, many were rightfully worried about his playing time given a sub-.300 projected wOBA, especially considering he earned negative OAA grades in both left and center fields last year. He has only marginally outperformed the projections, coming in at .310 currently (though his .262 xwOBA is awful), and yet he’s on pace to reach 600ish PA.

However, even with a higher OBP and 52 more PA, he has actually stolen nine fewer bases, as his success rate has faltered. He’s now a longshot to reach 50 steals, which would have been a bold prediction if you knew he would receive 600 PA.

That said, he’s obviously still a top stolen base contributor, and now batting in the middle of the lineup, might not be as bad in RBI. It’s too bad he’s still looking for that elusive first career home run!

Jorge Mateo

Oooohhhh, Mateo is totally another one of my types of players. I actually got a bit excited earlier in the season when he was on a mini hot streak with the Braves, leading to increased playing time, and I realized his BatSpd was up. The hot streak proved short-lived and he’s been a bench bat ever since. However, he’s still pacing for 20 home runs and 48 steals over 150 PA which is a monster fantasy season.

Now on the Rays, we know he’ll be allowed to run as often as he wants. But he’s going to be stuck in a short-side platoon, though he did get a start against a right-hander last week. I’m not really sure why Taylor Walls has become entrenched at shortstop when all his fielding metrics are negative and he’s posted a 72 wRC+. Mateo is far more exciting for fantasy purposes, but it doesn’t seem like the Rays have any interest in making a switch.

Nasim Nuñez

Nuñez has been the epitome of a one-category contributor this year. His elite second base defense has kept him in the lineup, despite a microscopic 61 wRC+. Luckily, he has walked 10.3%, so his OBP has been an acceptable .303 and has allowed him to steals 42 bases, which leads baseball by seven.

He hasn’t contributed anywhere else though, so prospective fantasy teams desperate for speed will need to weight whether and additional eight steals is worth the hit in every other category.

Brandon Lockridge

Here’s your first ultra speculative name. Lockridge was just recently in the Majors, but was optioned back to Triple-A last week. Perhaps due to rounding, he comes in as the seventh best projected RoS PA/SBA.

In 271 MLB PA, he has stolen 18 bases while getting caught just twice. That’s a 40+ steal pace over a full season. Back in 2024 at Triple-A, he stole 46 bases over just 402 PA.

For someone with limited power, he strikes out too much, which is likely one of the reasons he has never gotten an extended look as a regular. At this point, he’s just a name to remember in case he’s recalled again once rosters expand. Perhaps a steals a bunch of bases over the final weeks and gains some fantasy teams a point or two in the category.

David Hamilton

Hamilton was not supposed to be a strong side platoon starter for the Brewers, but here he is, starting most games at third base. He has performed exactly as you might expect given his short history, and his BABIP has rebounded so he hasn’t been as much of a batting average drain.

Unlike some other names, he’s not a complete zero in home runs, which means a full season could theoretically yield 10 home runs to go alone with 40 steals. That’s quite valuable.

Unfortunately, he hits far more flyballs than you would expect, so that BABIP rebound looks to be on shaky ground. I therefore wouldn’t expect much from batting average, but he’ll continue to run when he starts, and deliver a homer or two per month.

Jacob Melton

This is speculation number two. Incredibly, he has been on the same AL Tout Wars team since the auction, as his owner patiently awaits a promotion. Currently on the IL with a hamstring injury, it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll return and if it affects his willingness to run, let alone his potential to be recalled.

At Triple-A this year, the Rays sixth bet prospect has shown an exciting blend of speed along with power. He has stolen 23 bases in just 148 PA and incredibly has yet to be caught. He’s even chipped in five homers, thanks to a 21.7% HR/FB rate, supported by strong Statcast power metrics. His home run total would be even higher if he posted a higher FB%, but he’s been too busy lacing line drives to inflate his BABIP to .395.

His 30.4% strikeout rate is definitely concerning, though he’s helped his case with a low teen walk rate. This is a profile that looks to see a big boost in value in OBP formats when he gets his next opportunity.