Archive for Head to Head

• With everyone focusing on the increase in Tommy John operations, it is nice to see Rob Arthur look at how shoulder surgeries are on the decline (great graph).

• Well, a couple of players we expect to get hurt sometime during the season couldn’t even make it to Opening Day healthy. Carlos Gonzalez’s surgically repaired knee was feeling pain. He is supposed to be back today, but who knows how often his bum knee will keep flaring up.

• Jaime Garcia is another player which can be counted on for a DL stint or four. Right now his arm is feeling sore and fatigued. He is out of the Cardinals rotation until he starts to feel better.

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With just a week to go before the 2015 baseball season is underway and my social life comes to an end as I hole up in my condo in front of my Extra Innings packaged up television, it’s time to shed some tiers. Starting pitcher tiers of course. And specifically, American League starting pitchers.

My tier rankings are based on projected value moving forward with no accounting for what the pitcher has already done (which of course is nothing at the moment, but is important to remember when perusing through my mid-season updates). Essentially, these represent my value projections if you were to draft a team on this very day. Though tier rankings are supposed to consider all pitchers within a tier as essentially interchangeable, this initial set of rankings is a straight copy and paste from my projected dollar values, so it will begin in order.

Before diving into the tiers, you must understand how heavy a role innings pitched plays when valuing pitchers. That would explain a lot of some of the more controversial ranks. Furthermore, do not mistake this list as a precise order in which I would personally draft these pitchers. This is certainly not the case. When it gets toward the later tiers, I tend to prefer a younger, potential breakout performer than an established veteran whose value is primarily driven by his 180-200 innings (propping up both wins and strikeouts), rather than strong ratios.

For your debating pleasure, my tiers have been named after the brilliant FXX show, Man Seeking Woman (of which I hope more than two of you readers actually watch).

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Episode 209

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris dive deep into the mid and late tier of starting pitching in this two-hour extravaganza!!!

I broke the guys up into a series of four- and five-pitcher groupings and then we talked about a couple or all in each group. These are the tiers from which a lot of breakouts and surprises will emerge.

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• Chris Sale expects to start on April 12th.

• Nick Franklin will at least miss a couple of weeks to start the season. It may not be until late May when he returns.

Nick Franklin (left-oblique strain) is “in that gray area,” according to Cash when asked if the infielder could be back by four to six weeks or six to eight

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Every year, we here at RotoGraphs publish tiered rankings for every position and update them throughout the year. What you will read below are, more or less, my end-of-season projections for National League outfielders, since the season hasn’t started yet. However, these rankings will change as the year progresses, and I would be a fool to tell you the tiers below will look the same in September.

No doubt, this is a contentious matter, and you can tell me how much of a moron I am in the comments.

Without further ado, here is the 2015 season’s first installment of tiered rankings for NL outfielders.

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Last night, I participated in a FSWA* sponsored league with Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski and others from the industry. It’s 14-team H2H with standard deep rosters including two catchers, five outfielders, and just four bench spots. With a $260 budget, the depth offers a modest challenge. We also have a transaction limit of 50 for the season or three per week. As the Daily Grind guy, that’s a blow to my standard approach.

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Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

I don’t know how analyze the Cardinals’ outfield in a way that properly acknowledges the significant role the Cardinals’ carved out for Oscar Taveras without marginalizing or trivializing his life and talent nor condoning the cause of his passing. His sudden death shocked the baseball community and left a gaping hole in the St. Louis outfield. Unfortunately, there’s a lot we’ll never know about Taveras, the budding superstar who never was — or, perhaps more accurately, never got to be.

* * *

With the departures of Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, and with Matt Adams employed full-time at first base, the St. Louis outfield looks thin. But the Cards have a pair of prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level (or close to it), both of whom will likely assume full-time roles in the next couple of years. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ regulars, barring injury, will assume the lion’s share of the starting duties and produce enough offensive and defensive value to warrant their lack of depth — if they stay healthy, that is, and that’s a big “if.”

Left Field: Matt Holliday (Age 35)
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My piece yesterday got me thinking a bit. Seeing the high-impact finishes of Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom of 16th and 37th among starters despite not even qualifying for the ERA title (162+ IP) had me marinating on Masahiro Tanaka. Are we being too cautious with him because of the partially torn UCL? On Tuesday’s episode of The Sleeper & The Bust, Eno mentioned hearing “a talent evaluator” (which is the latest version of “they say” or “sources say”) suggest that upwards of 40 percent of pitchers are working with a partially torn UCL.

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Episode 208

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss some Spring Training news:

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I think something the fantasy universe forgets too often at this time of the season is the sheer length of the season. Six months. Twenty-six weeks. And of course, 162 games. In today’s game, very few players are able to play ‘em all. Just four players were able to do so in 2014. The pitching equivalent is 34 starts and just 10 pitchers managed to reach that height last year. So there are countless guys populating the top 50 or 100 who didn’t play anywhere near the full season.

Trust me I understand why we as a fantasy community have such a sharp focus on the here and now, prioritizing players who have roles secured at this moment. After all, you absolutely can’t play 162 games or log 34 starts if you aren’t even slated to start the season with the major league club. We know many starting roles will turnover as the season goes on and we will churn our fantasy rosters week-in and week-out. With that in mind, you need to make sure you aren’t being too dogmatic about avoiding injured guys or those on the outside looking in of a starting role.

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