2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: April

With just a week to go before the 2015 baseball season is underway and my social life comes to an end as I hole up in my condo in front of my Extra Innings packaged up television, it’s time to shed some tiers. Starting pitcher tiers of course. And specifically, American League starting pitchers.

My tier rankings are based on projected value moving forward with no accounting for what the pitcher has already done (which of course is nothing at the moment, but is important to remember when perusing through my mid-season updates). Essentially, these represent my value projections if you were to draft a team on this very day. Though tier rankings are supposed to consider all pitchers within a tier as essentially interchangeable, this initial set of rankings is a straight copy and paste from my projected dollar values, so it will begin in order.

Before diving into the tiers, you must understand how heavy a role innings pitched plays when valuing pitchers. That would explain a lot of some of the more controversial ranks. Furthermore, do not mistake this list as a precise order in which I would personally draft these pitchers. This is certainly not the case. When it gets toward the later tiers, I tend to prefer a younger, potential breakout performer than an established veteran whose value is primarily driven by his 180-200 innings (propping up both wins and strikeouts), rather than strong ratios.

For your debating pleasure, my tiers have been named after the brilliant FXX show, Man Seeking Woman (of which I hope more than two of you readers actually watch).

Tanaka (The P*nis Monster)

Felix Hernandez

King Felix gets a tier all to himself. There’s little to be said here, but it’s just absolutely incredible that his skills have continued to grow . His K% has risen for three straight seasons, BB% declined for six consecutive years and his SIERA has dropped below 3.00 for two years running. That he has only recorded more than 15 wins once in his entire career is just another of an endless number of examples of just how silly the statistic is.

Chip (The Robot)

David Price
Chris Sale
Corey Kluber

Though you wouldn’t know it by looking solely at ERA, Price took his skills to a whole new level last year, fueled by a strikeout rate jump, while maintaining his elite control, which pushed his SIERA below 3.00. He shouldn’t post a BABIP above .305 again, so he has a reasonable shot at joining Felix in the sub-3.00 ERA club this year.

Sale figures to miss just one start due to a foot injury, but inning for inning, he should be the second best starter in the American League. His delivery and slider usage hasn’t resulted in a major arm injury yet, so he should remain a safe bet for now.

Corey Kluber Society members rejoice! Even if you don’t believe in a full repeat, he posted a 3.25 SIERA in 2013, which was hidden by an inflated BABIP and HR/FB rate. An improved Indians defense could help Kluber finally get that BABIP into league average territory.

Adolf Hitler

Jeff Samardzija
Hisashi Iwakuma
Carlos Carrasco

How much will Samardzija suffer due to the move to a hitter’s haven? The projection systems see his ERA jumping by nearly a full run, while the Fans are much more optimistic about his chances of continuing great success. As usual, my projection falls in the middle.

Iwakuma has improved his skills in each of the two seasons following his 2012 rookie campaign. With sterling control, a ground ball tendency and an above average strikeout rate, he possesses the holy skills trifecta.

Carlos Carrasco! The only thing holding me back from a more aggressive ranking (like pushing him to the top of the tier) is a question of innings. I’m projecting 180, which is a bit light for a top 10 AL pitcher. I’m still a big fan though, and how could I not be given his third ranked arsenal?

Patti (Josh’s Mom)

R.A. Dickey
Phil Hughes
Sonny Gray
Justin Verlander
Scott Kazmir
Jered Weaver
Anibal Sanchez
Collin McHugh
Drew Hutchison
Michael Pineda

Remember what I noted in the intro about innings playing such a large role in pitcher values? Dickey is Exhibit A. I’m projecting nearly identical ratios (which are admittedly quite a bit more optimistic than the projection systems) as last season, but over 210 innings, which boosts both his wins and strikeout totals over and above pitchers you might consider of higher quality that are ranked below him. So, he’s more of a compiler which fantasy owners seemingly undervalue.

I think Gray is vastly overvalued, which surprises me because I quite like his skills package. It’s probably the 3.08 ERA deceiving folks, but his 3.56 SIERA was much less impressive. Verlander’s triceps issue doesn’t appear to be anything to worry about long-term. Most exciting is that in his last start, his fastball was sitting between 94 and 96 mph. A rebound in velocity, even if partially, is huge in his attempts to bounce back. Hutchison is the potential breakout guy on this list and my projection already calls for a partial one, with a sub-4.00 ERA forecast. He should benefit from Russell Martin’s framing and receive excellent run support from the Blue Jays’ power-packed offense.

Pineda is a fantastic shallow league target as he could easily be replaced when/if he returns to the disabled list. His skills were mighty strong last year and he should be wonderful again for as long as he remains healthy.

Gorbachenka (The Troll)

Alex Cobb
Drew Smyly
Dallas Keuchel
Chris Archer
Jose Quintana
Garrett Richards

I didn’t mean for this to happen, but this is apparently the injured tier. Well, half of them at least. The values for Cobb, Smyly and Richards are hampered by their current injury status, holding down their innings. All three would be up at least one tier if they were fully healthy and ready to go from day one. Unfortunately, we cannot be absolutely sure when each will make their season debut or if the injuries they are recovering from will affect their performances.

The healthy trio in this tier should be solid contributors in both AL-Only and mixed leagues with respectable strikeout rates and ratios.

Mike

Matt Shoemaker
Wade Miley
Masahiro Tanaka
Yordano Ventura
Derek Holland
Rick Porcello
Ervin Santana
Jake Odorizzi
Chris Tillman
Taijuan Walker
CC Sabathia

Well this is quite the motley crew. It’s a mix of young and old, boring vets and sexy youngsters. Tanaka is the obvious standout here. He is ranked down in this tier only because I’m projecting just 140 innings from him. Not only do I think he’s at great risk of going under the knife at some point, but we don’t know how the elbow injury will affect his performance. It’s a total crapshoot, so my ranking is rather meaningless as all we could do is guess what’s to come.

Ventura, Odorizzi and Walker are an interesting trio indeed. Ventura broke out last year, but has a chronic elbow issue so he can’t be expected to approach 200 innings. I love the skill set though. Odorizzi just needs some better sequencing fortune as his SIERA sat well below his ERA, despite all of his luck indicators being league average or better. And Walker is the sleeper who isn’t, getting all the spring buzz due to his who-cares 0.00 ERA. It’s in 18.0 innings and it’s in spring training folks. Let’s like Walker because of his minor league record, top prospect pedigree and high octane fastball, not because he hasn’t allowed a run in spring training.

Is Sabathia a surprise here? That his velocity has returned to the low 90s is huge, plus the Yankees are expected to trot out a strong defensive unit behind him. All he needs is some better fortune in the luck metrics and his ERA should be back below 4.00.

Liz

Wei-Yin Chen
Clay Buchholz
Bud Norris
Kevin Gausman
Trevor Bauer
James Paxton
Justin Masterson
C.J. Wilson
Colby Lewis
T.J. House

Although I sadly own no shares, I get the feeling that the good Buchholz will be back this year. My projection already calls for an ERA below 4.00, but in just 175 innings. Is Gausman seriously being considered for a bullpen role?! That’s hilarious. Until we hear such a move is actually being made, my projection will remain unchanged. Is this the year Bauer busts out? If he could maintain that vastly improved control, he’ll have a much better chance. I love Paxton, but his innings projection and perhaps a poor WHIP are keeping him down here. But strong velocity, especially for a southpaw, plus tons of grounders is a skill set I drool over.

I seriously considered deleting Lewis’ name to avoid the name calling in the comments. But have I ever played it safe, feeding you the same group think you can find anywhere else? So here’s the deal — last year was a fluke, as Lewis suffered through a .339 BABIP, and so I figure his ERA is going to drop a full run. That’s much more bullish than the projection systems. I don’t think his WHIP is going to kill you and I expect a small jump in innings to 185, which is higher than the majority of the other pitchers in this neighborhood are projected for. I may very well be proven totally wrong, but he was my last reserve pick in AL Tout, so at least I put my money where my mouth is.

Josh

Jason Vargas
Shane Greene
Nathan Eovaldi
Jesse Hahn
Yovani Gallardo
Edinson Volquez
Danny Duffy
Drew Pomeranz

This is an interesting group, as it’s headed by a boring veteran who I have never owned and never will, but then followed by a bunch of intriguing youngsters. Greene and Hahn’s values are being held down by their innings projections, but I like both of them. Eovaldi could break out, or he could not and hurt your ratios again given the difficulty of pitching in the AL East. Gallardo’s hopes of holding onto any semblance of mixed league value was dashed when he moved to a hitter’s haven in Texas. I used to like Duffy several years ago, but now I just think he’s being overvalued and overhyped as a sleeper pick. I am assuming Pomeranz wins a rotation spot, but am still projecting just 145 innings from him, which, again, reduces his value.

Show Me the Money

Aaron Sanchez
Daniel Norris
Kendall Graveman

This is a special bonus group that includes three hyped up youngsters. They are here to preemptively show you that I have not forgotten them. Instead, their projected values simply fell well below the names in the last real tier. In each case, the issues stem from both innings and skills concerns. Sanchez hasn’t shown the strikeout ability or control to prosper this year, Norris is missing the control as well, and Graveman allows far too much contact. The latter is getting silly hype due to his shiny 0.42 spring ERA, but it comes with just a 14.9% strikeout rate. That pathetic strikeout ability is going to cap his fantasy upside and make it difficult for him to earn much value, even if he does nudge his ERA below 4.00. What’s his best case scenario? Henderson Alvarez?