The FSWA Draft And H2H Wrinkles
Last night, I participated in a FSWA* sponsored league with Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski and others from the industry. It’s 14-team H2H with standard deep rosters including two catchers, five outfielders, and just four bench spots. With a $260 budget, the depth offers a modest challenge. We also have a transaction limit of 50 for the season or three per week. As the Daily Grind guy, that’s a blow to my standard approach.
*Fantasy Sports Writers Association – Rumor has it that I’m trying to win an award from them this year.
In my experience, H2H leagues place a much great onus on pitching. Most of my leagues are roto, and I often ignore pitchers deep into the draft with few ill effects. In H2H leagues, you ignore pitching at your own peril. The ability to produce both volume and consistent quality is the key to winning on a week-to-week basis. The transaction limit only made it more important to draft solid pitching.
On the hitting side of the ledger, the deep rosters place the burden of management on starting as many players as possible. With 14 teams, it’s often tempting to punt a catcher, middle infield, or outfield position. Usually I’d really skimp out on one of those and then use a waiver platoon like Rajai Davis and Anthony Gose. Again, the transaction limit forced me to aim for everyday production, which led to a few interesting roster decisions.
The Team – deGromulent
| Hitters | Cost | Pitchers | Cost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Tulowitzki | 25 | Alex Cobb | 13 | |
| Buster Posey | 26 | Johnny Cueto | 21 | |
| Carlos Santana | 19 | Carlos Carrasco | 16 | |
| Kris Bryant | 16 | Jacob deGrom | 10 | |
| Matt Holliday | 16 | Hector Rondon | 6 | |
| Pablo Sandoval | 12 | Jesse Hahn | 5 | |
| Mike Napoli | 6 | Andrew Miller | 7 | |
| Steve Pearce | 6 | Ken Giles | 9 | |
| Gregory Polanco | 9 | Kyle Hendricks | 5 | |
| Jose Ramirez | 1 | Evan Marshall | 1 | |
| A.J. Pollock | 10 | Jaime Garcia | 1 | |
| Coco Crisp | 3 | |||
| Aramis Ramirez | 7 | |||
| Chase Headley | 8 | |||
| Brandon Phillips | 1 | |||
| Brad Miller | 1 |
My very first selection was Bryant with the fourth overall pic. I’ve been among his greatest skeptics, but this seemed like a good format to test the waters. Since he’s likely to gain outfield eligibility now, he’ll be a nice depth piece. I could have used those $16 in a smarter way, such as a $12 Jay Bruce and a modest upgrade to the back end of the roster.
Early on, my strategy was to sit back and target players who weren’t going for at least $5 above value. I think of this tactic as pseudo-price enforcement. I want to win the players involved, but my first goal is to make sure they’re costly to acquire. I landed the core of my roster in this manner – Tulo, Posey, Santana, Cobb, and Cueto.
The early draft exuberance (including a $21 Mookie Betts and $13 Joc Pederson) evaporated in the mid-rounds. I got caught trying to price enforce Holliday, but I don’t mind a $2 overpay. Sandoval, Napoli, Pearce, deGrom, and Rondon were all nice value buys. I did pony up for my guy Carrasco, mostly because I haven’t had the opportunity to do so in other leagues (he keeps going for over $20).
After spending too much on the top talent, my rivals and I were too patient in the middle rounds. That resulted in an influx of late draft cash. I spent big on Pollock, Ramirez, Headley, Miller, Giles, and Hendricks simply because I had the money to do so. In retrospect, I would have preferred to forgo a couple of those players in exchange for a guy like Bruce.
Execution
This wasn’t my sharpest draft, but I’m relatively happy given the depth of the league. I had no intention of spending so much money on catchers. In particular, I meant to let Posey go, but I thought he’d reach $29. I don’t mind owning him, but I would have preferred a $13 Jake Arrieta and $11 Russell Martin.
The pitching staff is thinner than I’d like with just seven starters, but it should be competitive most weeks. Everybody provides good ratios. I didn’t really want four relievers, but I couldn’t pass on Marshall’s potential handful of saves at the end of the draft. I’m up to about 66 percent certain that Miller will close for the Yankees, and we all know the story with Giles.
I also modestly botched the position player side of things. Crisp and Napoli are banged up and will probably rest frequently even when healthy. Pearce is also a risk for some platoon work. Obviously, Bryant will start the season in the minors. While it seems like the club should only wait 10 games, there’s always the chance they push it out a bit longer. Then there’s Tulo – my only middle infielder who cost more than $1.
I often punt stolen bases in H2H drafts. If you don’t own one of the few burners, it’s hard to count on consistent production. I rostered hardly any speed threats, but there’s still a decent chance I’ll win the category one-third of the time. I much prefer to focus on power, run production, and average over stolen bases.
Parting Shots
Overall, this is a decent example for deep, H2H leagues with a taut transaction limit. Build a strong but cost effective rotation, and load up on starting position players. Don’t be afraid to dip into the well for over-the-hill regulars like Brandon Phillips. Depending on the depth of the league, you may be forced to make some concessions. I certainly did.
As a final programming note, this is probably my final draft review post of the season. I do still have six more drafts, so if you want to chat about my drafts, seek me out on Twitter (@BaseballATeam).
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Very nice
Seriously, wow
Calm yourself. It’s not THAT good. I’m semi-punting two categories and I hardly get any waiver wire help to manage them. And the 4 player bench is throwing me for a loop, I usually roster 9 to 11 SP in H2H, but there isn’t any room for more than 8 (once Marshall loses his possible temp role).
That is one one criticism. I really like the team, but in a H2H I might have completely punted one category than partially punting two categories.
Saves always worry me in H2H leagues. You are relying on a handful of guys to pile them up week in and week out, with little chance to let the ups and downs stabilize over time. The same can be said of collecting a few burners for SB. Other categories are generally contributed to by many more players and I perceive them to be more stable week to week (this could just be my personal bias and not true at all). Wondering how others feel? I have H2H draft on Sunday…
I think you’ll notice these exact biases reflected in my roster. I grabbed one underpriced CL simply because he WAS underpriced. Then I snagged two elite ratios guys who could run into saves at some point. I care less about the saves than the ratios.
I agree that it’s wise to maximize the predictable stats. However, if good closers are going for like $5, then snap up a bunch of them. Sometimes, entire leagues will share this approach, which means it’s time to zig.
I do the exact opposite, SB and SV are easiest to predict week to week therefore easiest to lock in as wins, just pay a little extra for the premium cuts. In 5×5, if you can count on 2 cat wins each week, you only have to win 50% of the other cats to win the week.
3-4 good closers + a Dee Gordon type and I only lost these categories once each the whole season on the way to the title.
….and especially in a 14 team league (like mine is), there are only 30 Closers for 14 teams, if you shark 4 of them, that means there are only 2 closers per opponent on avg (26 closers for 13 teams). You have a 2 to 1 advantage in save opps per week.
There’s an inflection point somewhere. Both strategies have merit depending upon what your rivals do.
great team, i really like your pitching and i tend to value it less than you in h2h. your relievers/closers (especially miller) could provide excellent value
Are the rosters for the FSWA draft’s on-line anywhere?
I believe this page is public. http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/94000/draftresults?drafttab=team
There are something like 6 or 8 FSWA leagues, I don’t have access to information about the others.
Thanks! I’ll try to track down the others.
just curious–given that yahoo isn’t running pro leagues this year, what are other ppl doing?
I never did a Pro league, what’s the benefit?
Brad: how would your strategy change with no transaction limits but with a FAAB instead?
It wouldn’t. Most of my leagues have some form of FAAB, I just input $0 bids when necessary.
“I got caught trying to price enforce Holliday, but I don’t mind a $2 overpay.”
If you were price enforcing, then how could that be an overpay? Or if you overpaid, why bother price enforcing, since he was already at fair value?
Why bother price enforcing at all? If its not a player you want, what possible upside is there for your team? Seems like a no win tactic.
It was one of those situations where 4 people hit +1 at the same moment. I lost.
The purpose of price enforcing is simple – take money from your competition. I advocate doing it early, often, and almost always. Still, I don’t price enforce on players I can’t use. In this case, I was indifferent between Holliday and the other comparable options.
I’ll often price enforce well beyond what I consider a fair price for a player. It’s the game theory aspect auctions. Even if I get caught once a draft, the meta-game is too much fun to put down.