Doc Holliday and the J-Hey Kid: The 2015 St. Louis Outfield

Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.

I don’t know how analyze the Cardinals’ outfield in a way that properly acknowledges the significant role the Cardinals’ carved out for Oscar Taveras without marginalizing or trivializing his life and talent nor condoning the cause of his passing. His sudden death shocked the baseball community and left a gaping hole in the St. Louis outfield. Unfortunately, there’s a lot we’ll never know about Taveras, the budding superstar who never was — or, perhaps more accurately, never got to be.

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With the departures of Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig, and with Matt Adams employed full-time at first base, the St. Louis outfield looks thin. But the Cards have a pair of prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level (or close to it), both of whom will likely assume full-time roles in the next couple of years. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ regulars, barring injury, will assume the lion’s share of the starting duties and produce enough offensive and defensive value to warrant their lack of depth — if they stay healthy, that is, and that’s a big “if.”

Left Field: Matt Holliday (Age 35)

Season	Year	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Cardinals	2014	156	667	20	83	90	4	11.1 %	15.0 %	.169	.298	.272	.370	.441
Depth Charts	2015	138	581	19	75	75	4	10.6 %	16.6 %	.178	.305	.276	.363	.453
Fans (33)	2015	140	611	19	78	81	4	10.1 %	15.5 %	.168	.311	.282	.367	.450

Here is a helpful summary of Holliday’s accomplishments, both recent and otherwise, from my analysis of him two weeks ago:

He has hit at least 20 home runs in nine straight years;
His walk rate has hovered between 10 and 12 percent for the better part of a decade, and his strikeout rate has always resided in the mid-teens;
He has averaged 647 plate appearances per season dating back to 2006.

And here is a helpful summary of what you can expect from him going forward:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I understand the bearish projections for a 35-year-old outfielder who endured a major slump to open last season. But Holliday turned it around gloriously in the second half and ultimately finished 2014 with vintage Matt Holliday numbers, minus a homer or two and a small chunk of batting average.

Steamer, ZiPS and the fans project Holliday as unliable to play a full season’s worth of games nor recover his lost batting average points. But, fundamentally, Holliday’s peripherals barely changed between 2013 and 2014. At this point, it’s a matter of your personal risk preference: are you someone who is risk averse and avoids an aging slugger before he drops off, or do you look at Holliday’s peripherals and, in light of his draft day discount, see not risk but reward?

There are few scenarios where Holliday won’t be a productive fantasy asset. It’s largely a matter of whether he’s a 20-homer, .290 guy or a 15-homer, .270 guy. If he ends up being the former, you better believe we’ll have this same discussion next offseason.

Center Field: Jon Jay (30)

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2014	Cardinals	140	468	3	52	46	6	6.0 %	16.7 %	.075	.363	.303	.372	.378
2015	Depth Charts	100	420	4	46	38	7	6.8 %	16.1 %	.094	.330	.280	.347	.375
2015	Fans (20)	134	544	5	49	54	10	7.4 %	16.0 %	.084	.347	.294	.362	.379

and Peter Bourjos (28)

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2014	Cardinals	119	294	4	32	24	9	6.8 %	26.5 %	.117	.311	.231	.294	.348
2015	Depth Charts	95	399	8	45	37	11	6.3 %	24.6 %	.134	.312	.244	.303	.378
2015	Fans (9)	101	404	6	36	39	11	6.9 %	22.8 %	.115	.326	.257	.322	.372

The Cardinals have two somewhat-speedy, light-hitting center fielders in Bourjos and Jay. However, the former is a defensive beast and the latter is arguably a liability. There really isn’t much need for a platoon, as each hitter has fairly even splits, so it might be wise to let one of them try to win the job outright rather than leave them in limbo. While Bourjos is not a fantasy stalwart by any means, he is a career 10-homer, 20-steal player on a 600-plate appearance basis, albeit with a suboptimal batting average. Meanwhile, Jay is more of a 5/10/.300 guy, which kind of makes him a one-trick pony and a relative non-factor in shallow leagues.

As an Angels fan, I’ve always liked Bourjos (and he’s still only 28!), and he’s a blast to watch patrol center field. But it’s Matheny’s opinion on if Bourjos’ defensive prowess is more valuable than Jay’s on-base percentage that counts here, not mine. Bourjos was hampered by a hip issue for most of last year but appears to be unimpaired. Considering Jay underwent offseason surgery and has seen the batter’s box a mere seven times this month, Bourjos may be on his way to not only claiming the starting gig but also rediscovering his past value. However, his spring has been atrocious, so it’s anyone’s guess who earns the larger portion of the timeshare. Bourjos and Jay are strictly deep-league and NL-only considerations for now.

Right Field: Jason Heyward (25)

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2014	Braves	149	649	11	74	58	20	10.3 %	15.1 %	.113	.308	.271	.351	.384
2015	Depth Charts	142	595	17	79	65	13	10.3 %	16.3 %	.163	.299	.269	.350	.432
2015	Fans (44)	145	645	20	92	80	17	10.4 %	16.1 %	.172	.301	.272	.353	.445

I want to temper my expectations, but it’s hard not to be a little excited when you read this:

RotoWire News: Heyward, who stole 20 bases last season and swiped third base in a spring training game last week, should be one of the main benefactors of the Cardinals more aggressive approach to baserunning this year, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (3/9/2015)

Heyward, only 25, is on the better side of the stolen base aging curve, so if what the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported above is true, one could reasonably expect Heyward to top last year’s stolen base total. Couple that with what ought to be a sizable power bounceback — he homered on half as many fly balls compared to his career rate (6.5% HR/FB in 2014 versus 13.0% career) — and Heyward could be one of a handful of 20/20 players in 2015. Mike Petriello discussed Heyward’s power outage here, which fails to paint a particularly rosy picture. But Heyward is theoretically entering his prime, and if batting lead-off affected his hitting approach as much as he claims it did, then maybe a change of batting order scenery could do him some good.

Even if Heyward fails to recoup his power losses, you’re still left with an outfielder who is plenty valuable atop a highly productive Cardinals lineup and a better bet to beat his Steamer and ZiPS projections than to fall short of them.

Reserves: Mark Reynolds (31), Randal Grichuk (23), Stephen Piscotty (24)

Not gonna lie: I thought Reynolds was barely on the right side of 40 rather than the wrong side of 30. He is well-traveled, occasionally hits balls far, and more occasionally makes no contact. He’s cheap power in deep leagues if you can stomach the absolutely brutal batting average. Did you know he has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last seven seasons?

Grichuk’s calling card is power, albeit modest power. He posted a pedestrian everything at Triple-A, from his triple-slash to his plate discipline. Entering his age-23 season, he has time to grow. But I don’t know if starting him on the 25-man roster is the correct move developmentally, as his approach could use some shoring up.

Piscotty posted a top-10 strikeout rate for Pacific Coast League hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. He also posted a bottom-20 isolated power (ISO). Both contribute to a lackluster offensive profile that offers a solid hit tool but little in the ways of power or speed. FanGraphs’ Prospect Pontiff Kiley McDaniel grades out Piscotty’s game power at 35 but his raw power at 55, so there is still some blossoming to be had for the young Cardinal flower. Still, if he never successfully taps into his power, he could peak as a low-risk, low-ceiling outfield option with a nice batting average and a shot at double-digit homers and steals à la Melky Cabrera last year.