I’ve recently completed two deep Ottoneu minor league drafts and am reminded just how difficult successful “prospecting” can be.  Regardless of how informed you may feel heading into an MiLB draft, you’re often left selecting players based upon small sample sizes, second hand reports, maybe a few brief videos and, as much as we want to deny it, a bias towards “scouting the stat lines”.  At the end of the day you’re making a decision using limited information that could have serious long term consequences for your dynasty team.

Prospecting is actually a lot like another critical business skill: hiring good employees.  The inputs might be a little different (scouting reports might be job references, batting practice videos might be one hour interviews, and stats, however limited, might be the resume sitting on your desk), but the challenge is the same: make an important, timely decision based on limited information, first impressions, and gut feel.

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It’s back to another Steamer and I, as I compare my Pod Projections to the Steamer forecasts and identify players we disagree on most. Last time, I switched gears, discussing Mike Trout, who surprisingly I was far more bearish on than Steamer.

I am continuing the bearish theme with our next man, the ManBearPuig himself, Yasiel Puig. Puig made a splash in his 2013 debut, posting a .398 wOBA with strong power, some speed, and excellent defense in right field. But since, his offensive production has been in decline and last year he battled injuries en route to just a .328 wOBA. I think we all assume a rebound is in order, but the question is how much?

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For the upcoming season, I will be predominantly covering first baseman here on Rotographs. First base is traditionally thought of as a super deep position. After looking more closely, beyond the top 10 there are some solid first basemen, but nothing to build your team around. What I aim to explore today are those 1B who you may need to look at later on in the draft, but can help you in one of the traditional 5 roto categories (make that four, stolen base totals were too low to have a significant impact). I will be using Steamer as a guide, and then identifying a few deeper picks who may help you in potential deficiencies.

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In my previous article, I found that left-handed platoon hitters who start games with the handedness advantage can expect to have that handedness advantage in 84.9 percent of their plate appearances in those games. Right-handed platoon hitters maintain their handedness advantage in 52.6 percent of their plate appearances in those games. Those percentages imply that relying on vs. left-handed pitcher and vs. right-handed pitcher split statistics to project the performance of platoon hitters in their starts with the platoon advantage overestimates their production in those starts. I wanted to see if I could do better based on my research, and so I created a (Marcel-) simple projection system.

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Today, I continue this year’s Steamer and I series, but switch it up to the other side. That is, the first two players I compared my Pod Projection to Steamer were those I was significantly more bullish on. Now I’ll take a look at a player I am far more bearish on than Steamer.

It should not surprise you that the fantasy relevant player I’m most pessimistic on versus Steamer is actually Xander Bogaerts, who I discussed last week. Obviously, I’m not going to talk about him a second time. So instead, I move down the list and find a big surprise – 2014 MVP Mike Trout. I debated whether it was even worth writing a potentially negative article on him because my opinion isn’t going to matter much. But I’m actually quite curious about what is driving my pessimism versus Steamer since this is a complete surprise to me. So let’s find out, shall we?

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

It was fairly easy to decide who should get the third Pod Projection treatment of the 2016 preseason. The second overall pick in the 2013 June Amateur Draft, Kris Bryant shot through the minor leagues after destroying minor league pitching and finally made his highly anticipated debut in 2015. He didn’t disappoint, as he posted a .371 wOBA and performed exactly as we expected – lots of swings and misses resulting in strikeouts, a strong walk rate, and excellent power.

Naturally, fantasy owners are expecting the sun, the moon, and the stars from him in 2016, as his NFBC ADP currently sits at 11th overall. He has been selected as early as fourth (!!!!!) and as late as 22nd. Are they crazy for their super optimism, or justified to believe an offensive explosion is on its way?

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Yesterday marked the triumphant return of the Steamer and I series, as I started things off with a comparison of Michael Conforto’s Pod Projection and Steamer forecast. Today I will continue with a player I am much more optimistic about than Steamer, Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes had a dreamy two months with the Mets, driving an overall offensive performance rebound back to the level he enjoyed during his 2012 debut. Though no one expects him to repeat that level of production over a full year, lost in what Cespedes did was that he had already rebounded in his first four months with the Tigers. The Mets performance simply made his rebound more dramatic. So let’s dig into the numbers and find out why I’m so much more bullish than Steamer.

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Welcome to the return of the Steamer and I series. I debuted Steamer and I last year and have decided to bring it back for an encore performance. In the series, I pit my Pod Projection against Steamer, comparing wOBA forecasts for hitters and ERA for pitchers. I’ll choose several fantasy relevant players to discuss on each end of the spectrum – those I am far more optimistic on and those I am more bearish on.

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2/28/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @jasoncollette

Moves

• Dexter Fowler to the Cubs, actually (2:10)
• Ian Desmond to Texas (9:26)

Emails

• Post-Break Players (20:02)
• NFBC First-Timer (33:20)
• Keeper Depth (40:04)
• OBP/SLG Leagues (46:26)

We have a new email address for questions: sleeperpod@gmail.com. Send your fantasy-relevant questions. You can send keeper questions, but those are much better for Twitter. Questions most likely to get selected are those that apply more broadly, as opposed to specific trade or keeper queries. However, if you do ask a league-specific question, please include the league size and categories.

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A couple of months ago, I wrote an article about platoon options, and astute reader Tacocat pointed out that platoon hitters never actually realize their versus left-handed pitcher or versus right-handed pitcher splits that we frequently cite. Instead, platoon hitters start games with a platoon advantage, and then sometimes managers have to leave them in to face same-handed pitchers out of the bullpen.

Daily players use the same decision-making as actual managers. You can choose to start a platoon player because he is facing an opposite-handed starter, but that creates a chance that he could see a plate appearance versus a same-handed reliever later in the game. If you are relying on a split stat versus left-handed or right-handed pitchers to make that start/sit decision, then your platoon hitters will underperform your expectations on average.

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