Steamer and I: Michael Conforto

Welcome to the return of the Steamer and I series. I debuted Steamer and I last year and have decided to bring it back for an encore performance. In the series, I pit my Pod Projection against Steamer, comparing wOBA forecasts for hitters and ERA for pitchers. I’ll choose several fantasy relevant players to discuss on each end of the spectrum – those I am far more optimistic on and those I am more bearish on.

Today, I’ll begin the series with Michael Conforto, who enjoyed an impressive debut with the Mets last year, despite skipping Triple-A. Compared to Steamer, I am quite bullish, though unsurprisingly, still not as optimistic as the Fans!

Conforto was actually not the player I was most bullish on compared with Steamer. That honor goes to Corey Seager, but since I already shared my detailed Pod Projection with you last week, I’m not going to repeat myself.

For our projection comparison, all 2015 and Steamer counting stats have been extrapolated to the same number of plate appearances I forecasted.

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Steamer vs Pod: Michael Conforto

System	PA	2B	3B	HR	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	BABIP
2015	544	39	0	25	8.8%	20.1%	0.270	0.335	0.506	0.236	0.359	0.297
Pod	544	32	1	20	9.4%	19.5%	0.273	0.343	0.465	0.192	0.349	0.310
Steamer	544	27	2	19	7.7%	18.8%	0.260	0.321	0.435	0.176	0.326	0.290

So I’m projecting Conforto to post a wOBA 0.023 points higher than Steamer is, which is pretty significant from a projection standpoint. First, it’s worth noting that both Steamer and I are forecasting regression from last year. That’s primarily driven by a sharp decline in power, as Conforto’s ISO during his short time with the Mets was far above anything he has posted in the minors. It’s not often you see a hitter skip Triple-A and then go on to display even more power immediately after he reaches the Majors.

Beginning from the left, we find that although Steamer and I are both expecting a dip in doubles rate, Steamer is projecting a much larger drop than I am. Here are Conforto’s historical and projected AB/2B rates:

Steamer vs Pod: Michael Conforto Doubles Rates

Season	Team/System	AB	2B	AB/2B
2014	Mets (A-)	163	10	16.3
2015	Mets (A+)	184	12	15.3
2015	Mets (AA)	173	12	14.4
2015	Mets	174	14	12.4
2016	Pod Projection	485	32	15.2
2016	Steamer Projection	491	27	18.3

Doubles rates don’t seem to decline significantly when transitioning from the minors to the Majors. At least not as much as home run power sometimes does for young players. So I’m surprised by Steamer’s serious bearish doubles projection here. It’s the main reason why the system’s ISO projection is lower than mine.

The difference in our triples projection is negligible, as is our home runs. Conforto somehow managed to vastly outperform his xHR/FB rate of 11.3% by posting an actual mark of 17%. What kept his xHR/FB rate so mediocre was a ridiculously low standard deviation of distance (SDD). While I do expect that to jump, I still forecasted a decline in HR/FB rate to just 13.5%. Though I don’t know what kind of fly ball rate Steamer projects, a similar home run total suggests a similar HR/FB rate forecast.

Moving along to walk and strikeout rate projections, we find our next big clue. Check out the gap in walk rate! That’s pretty large. The calculus for my bullish forecast was thus — Conforto posted a well below league average O-Swing%, as well as Swing%. So, he didn’t swing at pitches outside the zone and also swung less frequently at all pitches. Swinging less = more walks. I think it suggests a bit better than the 8.8% walk rate he posted with the Mets. He also posted an 11.7% mark in Double-A, so he’s clearly capable of displaying strong plate patience.

Steamer is slightly more optimistic than I am in Conforto’s ability to cut down on his strikeout rate. It’s actually projecting a mark just above his Double-A mark, which surprises me, since it’s even more bullish than the Fans! Conforto did swing and miss less often than the league average, but since he also swings less often, he’s going to still strike out at a league average clip or close to it.

We already touched on the ISO discrepancy, so the last piece is BABIP. It’s toughest with young players with a limited track record and Steamer typically plays it safe. In two of Conforto’s three minor league stints, he posted BABIP marks of at least .368. As I’ve said many times in the past, in my experience forecasting players, guys with high minor league BABIPs tend to post higher Major League BABIPs than guys with lower minor league BABIPs.

Conforto’s 174 at-bats represent a small sample, but it’s still worth checking in on his batted ball data and how they should effect BABIP. He posted an above average LD% and identical ground ball and fly ball rates. The line drive rate is good, but he also posted an inflated IFFB%, which is going to cancel out some of the positives from the liners. He also pulled the ball frequently, rarely going to the opposite field. But, he hit the ball hard about 41% of the time, which is fantastic.

All in all, I see the potential for a respectable BABIP, though certainly not a massively inflated one like he posted in the minors. But it’s still too small a sample to draw many conclusions from. Yet, I can’t see forecasting a below league average BABIP like Steamer and believe that my projection is far more fair, given his healthy minor league track record for the metric.

Although I’m more bullish than Steamer, I still don’t see great fantasy potential here this season. He figures to open the season hitting seventh in the Mets lineup, which is a bad spot, and will probably platoon with Juan Lagares, as he sits against lefties. He’s going 52nd among outfielders in NFBC and I prefer several names going after him.