3/16/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Lance McCullers to DL
• Yasiel Puig no suspension
• MIL not naming a closer
• Juan Nicasio turning heads in PIT

Strategy Section: Good Guys Off Bad Years

• Yasiel Puig
• Carlos Gomez
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Ian Desmond
• Hanley Ramirez
• Anthony Rendon
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Yan Gomes
• Victor Martinez

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I am a huge San Francisco Giants fan. However, if you have followed my work prior to joining Rotographs, you know I hate Gregor Blanco. I will explain further. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Let’s rewind to spring training of 2015. It was one in which the hype became deafening for Taijuan Walker. He pitched 27 innings, allowing just two runs, for a microscopic 0.67 ERA. His underlying peripherals (ya know, the spring stats that might actually matter) were strong too, but it was most certainly that tiny ERA that took Walker from sleeper and breakout candidate into that risky territory in which he has to break out just to break even for his fantasy owners. So how were his new owners rewarded? With a luscious 4.56 ERA. Oops. His skills were excellent though and he managed to post a more respectable 3.69 SIERA. So is this the breakout year?

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We are doing our March ranking updates. You can follow each position here:

• Outfielders
• Starting Pitchers
• First Base
• Shortstops
• Catchers

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Paul Kastava
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

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It’s time for another (and perhaps final) comparison between my Pod Projections and Steamer. Today we’ll look at another starting pitcher who I am significantly more bullish on by ERA than Steamer.

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We are doing our March ranking updates. You can follow each position here:

• Outfielders
• Starting Pitchers
• First Base
• Shortstops

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Paul Kastava
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After a breakout 2014 performance, Jeff Samardzija followed up with a stinker of a season. His ERA spiked by nearly two full runs, his SIERA jumped by more than a run, and his strikeout rate plummeted, as did his ground ball rate. It’s no surprise then that the RotoGraphs ranking crew don’t exactly agree on his 2016 value. His individual ranking ranged from a bullish 25 to a bearish 69, but a “split” (difference between high and low ranking) of 44, the highest mark among the top 45 consensus pitchers.

Despite his poor 2015 results, the Giants gave him a five-year contract. Let’s find out if a return to the National League and calling the most pitcher friendly park in baseball home can spark a rebound.

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3/11/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Moves/News/Rumors

• We spend the bulk of the episode discussing Eno’s findings at the camps he’s been to: Chicago, Cincy, San Diego, and Colorado.

Strategy Section: Tout Mixed

• Review of Eno’s team for Tuesday’s Tout Mixed Draft

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It’s time to move on to the starting pitching side of the ledger for our next set of Steamer and I entries. For the pitchers, I’ll be comparing my ERA Pod Projection to that of Steamer to identify who I am significantly more bullish and bearish on.

First, we’ll start with one of the pitchers I am far more optimistic on than Steamer is. But before we dive in, I wanted to note some of the pitchers I skipped over. Chris Young, Royals version, topped the list, for obvious reasons. He breaks all computer models and is a perfect example of why it is often better to rely on human forecasts than computer ones. After Young was the man that came back from the dead last year, Rich Hill. Obviously, a computer system is going to struggle with his projection and is also unaware of the work he did on his mechanics last season that may have been behind his improved control. He’s a total crapshoot though and a complete shot in the dark, so he’s not really worth discussing.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After subjecting three straight hitters to the Pod Projection process, it’s time to move on to starting pitchers. I have decided to begin with everyone’s favorite sleeper, Reds sophomore Raisel Iglesias. After coming over from Cuba, Iglesias has pitched just 36 minor league innings and 95.1 Major League innings. And despite a lackluster 4.15 ERA during his debut, the hype machine has been running all offseason.

Such a limited track record and unimpressive ERA doesn’t typically result in an NFBC ADP that equates to the 40th starting pitcher selected. So what we have here is our classic so-called sleeper, who isn’t going for sleeper prices. As a result, he’s no sleeper, as everyone is on the bandwagon. Are fantasy owners justified in their optimism?

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