9/17/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

SECOND HALF STANDOUTS

• Elvis Andrus (2:00)
• Khris Davis (9:55)
• Christian Vazquez/James McCann (13:30)
• Nick Senzel (18:00)
• Eddie Rosario (22:05)
• Justin Smoak (26:16)
• Corey Seager (28:50)
• Rhys Hoskins (32:22)
• Josh Bell (35:47)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

It’s time to gleen into tonight’s games to see what information can be pulled out.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

• Our projections hate some pitchers but they really hate Tim Melville.
• The Books have no faith in Chandler Shepard first major league start tonight.
• FanGraphs has put too much faith into Blake Snell’s return from the IL.
• The Books seems to expect more out of Brett Anderson than an ERA over 4.50.

Game 1 (Tuesday): Phillies at Braves
Favorite: Braves
Book’s Breakeven % (Braves): 64.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 52.1%

FanGraphs doesn’t buy into Dallas Keuchel’s 3.35 ERA (3.91 ERA projection) but Vince Velasquez is pegged at a 4.86 ERA. The Braves aren’t even getting all the home-field advantage on a break-even game. I’d have to side with the Books on this one.
Read the rest of this entry »

As Justin’s six Too Early Mock drafts wind down, we have some excellent ADP data to look digest and it’s been brilliantly put together by the wonderful Smada. It will obviously morph over the next 6+ months with risers and fallers at every level.

Today I’m identifying 20 players going pick-200 or later that I like for next year and while some may ascend into the top 200, it’s unlikely that any will become cost prohibitive by draft season. The league setup was 15-team with the standard NFBC lineup except for just one catcher instead of two: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UT, Px9.

Julio Urías, SP ARI | ADP 208 – High 171 – Low 272

The Dodgers will be using Urias as a starter next year and while his workload will no doubt be managed, I like him in this pick range. He will likely get somewhere around 120-140 innings which is enough to be a high impact arm. Look at what Chris Paddack was able to do with 135.7 innings. The Padres got him to the finish line and he’s been a Top 30 SP according to the Razzball Player Rater. Urias could definitely match or best the 3.38 ERA/1.00 WHIP with 144 Ks we’ve seen from Paddack this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Aaron Civale (43%) vs DET: I don’t believe in the 1.93 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA but the home matchup (vs Zimmermann) is great.

Tony Gonsolin (0%) vs TB: Golsolin is a similar talent to Civale but Gonsolin’s matchup versus the Rays is tougher.

Dinelson Lamet (20%) at MIL: He’s a must-start even though he’s on the road in Milwaukee.

Zach Eflin (28%) at ATL: This might be the most boring pickup but he has been consistently OK over the course of this season. I just wish he was facing someone besides Atlanta.
Read the rest of this entry »

September Baseball got me like:

There are 60 players in MLB with at least 28 home runs this season. Zero of them are on the SF Giants. In fact, the Giants have not had a player with 28 home runs in a season this decade. A decade in which they won three World Series. pic.twitter.com/jxMXLjJWns

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) September 17, 2019

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to go over a few more games from this past weekend and today.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

• Vegas is in love with John Means even though he’s struggled in the second half.
• The FanGraphs projection for pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery (e.g. Garrett Richards and Johnny Cueto) seem too optimistic.
• Marlins Pablo López and Elieser Hernandez have struggled in the second half.
• Zac Gallen’s projections seem off and he could be a sneaky upside option going into 2020.

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is beautiful:

Zack Britton, Butterfly Pitch. 🦋 pic.twitter.com/yRbKPuKfnz

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 14, 2019

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Compared to last week when nothing happened, a few interesting names popped up this week for those still with FAAB left to spend.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

• Kyle Lewis: For any owner needing outfield help, he’s a must-add. The highly-touted prospect is hitting .400/.375/1.067 with three homers in his first four games. If anyone has money left, it’s going towards Lewis.
• Nico Hoerner and Mauricio Dubon: Both are regulars with Hoerner starting five straight and Dubon nine straight. They both are the same skill-set of a great eye for contact with some speed and power.
• Nick Solak: A 26% ownership rate is criminally low for someone hitting .342/.453/.570. He’s started 10 straight games while batting cleanup in all but one of those games.
• Adam Frazier, Tommy Edman, Starlin Castro, and Robinson Cano: While not the sexy options like Hoerner and Dubon, they’re comparable hitters.
• Wil Myers: A huge jump in ownership, but he should have been owned in deeper leagues since the Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians.
• Sean Murphy: Since being called up, Muphy is hitting .409/.458/1.091 in eight games with four homers.

• Johnny Cueto: He’s back and threw five shutout innings. His fastball sat at 91.3 mph which is at his preinjury level. I am a little worried he posted just a 6% SwStr% on the game.
• Alex Young: Young finally pushed his ownership over the 50% mark. He’s been one of the few decent starting options on the waiver wire.
• Michael Wacha: I noticed while going over the Vegas lines, Michael Wacha had stepped up his game in the second half with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP.
• Nathan Eovaldi: Why? Let me look. A two-step against the Giants and at the Rays. It’s tough to trust a 5.00 to 5.50 ERA talent pitcher.

Closer Rankings (Saves focused)

1. Seth Lugo
2. Nick Wittgren
3. James Karinchak
4. Trevor May
5. Will Harris
6. Chad Green
7. Jairo Díaz
8. Seung-Hwan Oh
9. Yusmeiro Petit
10. Arodys Vizcaíno

9/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

TOO EARLY MOCK SP ANALYSIS

• First 10 Rounds
• Favorites 150-200
• Favorites 200+
• Smada’s Excellent ADP Board

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 94 minutes of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS