Wednesday’s Streaming Starters (9/18/19)
Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).
Note: The starters are listed in order of value
Hell Yea
Aaron Civale (43%) vs DET: I don’t believe in the 1.93 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA but the home matchup (vs Zimmermann) is great.
Tony Gonsolin (0%) vs TB: Golsolin is a similar talent to Civale but Gonsolin’s matchup versus the Rays is tougher.
Dinelson Lamet (20%) at MIL: He’s a must-start even though he’s on the road in Milwaukee.
Zach Eflin (28%) at ATL: This might be the most boring pickup but he has been consistently OK over the course of this season. I just wish he was facing someone besides Atlanta.
Partial Category Contribution
Homer Bailey (24%) vs KC: I expect a decent start against a sad Royals lineup for a Win. Besides the Win, his walk rate is just 2.1 BB/9 since joining the Athletics.
Adam Wainwright (30%) vs WAS: A balanced contributor but no easy path to a Win and a 3.5 BB/9 is tough to get too excited about.
Adrian Houser (16%) vs SD: I have hope Houser can be better but his 9.4 K/9 as a starter and a matchup against the Padres makes him a tempting option. At some point he has to admit his curve isn’t working (5% Swstr%, 43% GB%) and quit throwing it.
CC Sabathia (9%) vs LAA: It’s tough to go with CC since he’s likely followed by Domingo German. If German is the follower, too bad because he’s likely owned.
Mike Leake (20%) vs MIA: Leake’s start gives an owner a good chance for a Win while maintaining a decent WHIP.
Dylan Bundy (18%) vs TOR: He’s a strikeout play (8.9 K/9) with a puncher’s chance for a Win (vs. Buchholz). The ratios will end up through the roof but it gets worse.
Single Category Contribution
Tyler Mahle (3%) at CHC: His one contribution will be strikeouts (9.3 K/9) but he’s likely to get rocked by the Cubs.
Danny Duffy (8%) at OAK: He’s a tough pitcher to rank. I put him in this category for the strikeouts (7.9 K/9) but they aren’t great. Nothing is great but he’s not completely useless like those in the “Hell No” group.
Jeff Samardzija (45%) at BOS: Normally, he has a decent WHIP (1.12) because he never walks anyone.
Jhoulys Chacín (10%)/Second reliever vs SF: Some pitcher will be inline for a Win here but not Chacin. He’s only thrown 2.2 innings max with Boston so try to find the bulk reliever and start him.
Dario Agrazal (1%) vs SEA: He’s facing a weak Seattle squad for a possible Win.
Clay Buchholz (3%) at BAL: Another Win-only move.
Hell No
Kolby Allard (9%) at HOU: Worst possible matchup.
Brendan McKay (0%) at LAD: He might have the highest K/IP of the pitchers but he’s not going long and teams have been hitting him around.
Sandy Alcantara (27%) at ARI: Another tough player to rank but he’s not going to give his owner much to work with. It’s a huge gap between him and the rest of the pitchers in this group.
Dillon Peters (2%) at NYY: With the right matchup, I could see myself starting him but not at the Yankees.
Jordan Zimmermann (4%) at CLE: He used to be useful in WHIP because he walked almost no one but now he’s just getting hit around (1.44 WHIP).
Justin Dunn (1%)/Tommy Milone (2%) at PIT: No.
Jeff Hoffman (0%) vs NYM: Not even a Win chance since he’s facing Syndergaard.
Dylan Covey (0%) at MIN: A well earned career 6.54 ERA over 250 IP.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
As someone who is neck-and-neck in 3 pitching categories, I’ve found this series to be very useful. But I missed it over the weekend. Given the time of year, a weekend update, or even a Friday article covering pitchers through Monday, would be a huge help!
I know Sandy Alcantara doesn’t inspire very much confidence in anyone, but I think he deserves a little more credit than he got here. He has recently changed his pitch mix pretty significantly (as has been written about here on FG), now throwing his sinker basically instead of his fastball, and the results have been positive for him thus far: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sandy-alcantara-sinks-his-way-to-success/
Since August, he’s pitched 55.2 IP with a 2.59 ERA and 3.33 FIP. His xFIP during this stretch is 4.56, which isn’t great, but I have been seeing fissures this year between xFIP and xwOBA, where many really bad-looking xFIPs are contradicted by very good-looking xwOBAs. I think the main reason for this is that xFIP treats all flyballs equally for HR/FB, whereas statcast distinguishes greatly between them. Alcantara’s cumulative xwOBA for August+September is around .280, which is well above average (his xwOBA for the season on the whole is .318, which is average, but not HORRIBLE as one might think).
The other things I consider here, while definitely less important, are park factors and team batting stats. Chase Field is ranked 20th overall amongst stadiums, meaning it is relatively pitcher-friendly in the scheme of things, and in addition to that, the Dbacks rank 22nd in baseball against RHPs (wRC+ 87) and 21st in baseball at home (wRC+ 91).
None of this is to say that Alcantara is guaranteed to do well tomorrow. Anything can happen for any pitcher in one isolated start, regardless of whether it is a “good decision” to start him or not. I just think that Alcantara doesn’t belong in the “Hell No” group. I think there is a case to be made for streaming him and I personally would start him over many of the guys ranked above him. Regardless of how he does tomorrow, I do think he warrants more credit than he got here. Just my two cents
Also surprised that Alcantara is listed as a Hell No. He has been rock solid in the past month or so and the Diamondbacks line-up is not particularly intimidating. The statement that he “doesn’t give his owner much to work with” is vague . . .
Not to pile on about Alcantara, but in a September where guys are not throwing even 5IP, Alcantara is being allowed to work deep into games. He’s thrown at least 6IP in 7 straight games and 7IP in 6 of those. He’s only thrown fewer than 96 pitches once and never fewer than 92.