Reverse Engineering the Sharks: Richards, Means, Lopez, & Cueto

It’s time to go over a few more games from this past weekend and today.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

• Vegas is in love with John Means even though he’s struggled in the second half.
• The FanGraphs projection for pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery (e.g. Garrett Richards and Johnny Cueto) seem too optimistic.
• Marlins Pablo López and Elieser Hernandez have struggled in the second half.
• Zac Gallen’s projections seem off and he could be a sneaky upside option going into 2020.

Game 1 (Monday): Padres at Brewers
Favorite: Brewers (Vegas), Padres (FanGraphs)
Vegas Breakeven % (Brewers): 61.7%
FanGraphs Win%: 45.5%

The huge discrepancy comes down to Garrett Richards projection. It’ll be his first major league start with the Depth Charts projection going with a 3.68 ERA. There is no way he should be evaluated as a sub-4.00 coming off Tommy John surgery and showing no minor league control.

Game 2 (Monday): Orioles at Tigers
Favorite: Tigers (FanGraphs), Orioles (Vegas)
Vegas Breakeven % (Orioles): 60.3%
FanGraphs Win%: 45.4%

With the Tigers playing at home, the FanGraphs Win% points to an even game but Vegas disagrees. FanGraphs projects the starters at John Means (Orioles) at 5.24 ERA and Tyler Alexander (Tigers) at 4.82. My guess is that Vegas is believing more in Means’ 3.47 ERA. Also, it’s not any second-half improvement with his xFIP going from 5.21 in the first half to 5.86 in the second.

I like what Tyler Alexander is doing with his starter xFIP and FIP under 4.00 this season and the sinker he’s relying on (60% GB%, 7% SwStr%). I may be missing something but I think the sharks are off on this game.

Game 3 (Monday): Marlins at Diamondbacks
Favorite: Diamondbacks
Vegas Breakeven % (Diamondbacks): 68.1%
FanGraphs Win%: 61.1%

The two starters have almost identical projected ERA’s with Robbie Ray at 4.07 and Pablo López at 4.10. The deal is that since coming off the IL, Lopez has struggled with a 7.91 ERA, 7.25 FIP, and 5.28 xFIP. His strikeout rate dropped from 8.6 K/9 in the first half to 5.6 K/9 in the second. The projections have his strikeout rate near 7.5 K/9. Truthfully, I’m surprised Vegas hasn’t pounded the line even more.

Game 4 (Sunday): Astros at Royals
Favorite: Astros
Vegas Breakeven % (Astros): 71.4%
FanGraphs Win%: 56.6%

Vegas has been siding with the Astros for a while and this game was no exception. The projection hated the two starters, Jakob Junis (4.69 ERA) and Wade Miley (4.64 ERA). Junis’s projection is fine and if anything, it should be better with some second-half improvements. Maybe Miley’s projection higher than his 2019 results even with his previous two blowups.

The bullpens have been polar opposites with the Astros at a 3.85 ERA and the Royals at 5.12. A significant difference but not enough for the 15% point gap. I just think bettors are taking the Astros against any dog.

Game 5 (Sunday): Marlins at Giants
Favorite: Giants
Vegas Breakeven % (Miami):41.7%
FanGraphs Win%: 32.5%

The FanGraphs projections for players returning from the IL, especially Tommy John surgery, seem overly ambitious. Johnny Cueto was projected for a 4.08 ERA.

Miami’s starter, Elieser Hernandez, shouldn’t be getting any love since he’s fallen apart in the second with his K%-BB% dropping from 21% to 14% and his xFIP going from 4.56 to 5.47. Bad projections for both starters seem to offset each other, not give the Giants an advantage.

Game 6 (Sunday): Reds at Diamondbacks
Favorite: Diamondbacks
Vegas Breakeven % (Diamondbacks): 60.9%
FanGraphs Win%: 51.3%

Trevor Bauer has been struggling this season with an ERA and estimators near 4.25 while his projections were closer to 3.75. The results have been worse with the Reds with an ERA over 6.00 and ERA estimators near 5.00. Bettors thought Bauer was done for and gave him no love.

Besides Bauers, FanGraphs has Zac Gallen (D-Backs starter) at a 4.47 ERA. So far this season his ERA estimators are below this value and his ERA is 2.81. One weird item is the projected .322 BABIP (.334 from ZiPS).