As Justin’s six Too Early Mock drafts wind down, we have some excellent ADP data to look digest and it’s been brilliantly put together by the wonderful Smada. It will obviously morph over the next 6+ months with risers and fallers at every level.
Today I’m identifying 20 players going pick-200 or later that I like for next year and while some may ascend into the top 200, it’s unlikely that any will become cost prohibitive by draft season. The league setup was 15-team with the standard NFBC lineup except for just one catcher instead of two: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UT, Px9.
Julio Urías, SP ARI | ADP 208 – High 171 – Low 272
The Dodgers will be using Urias as a starter next year and while his workload will no doubt be managed, I like him in this pick range. He will likely get somewhere around 120-140 innings which is enough to be a high impact arm. Look at what Chris Paddack was able to do with 135.7 innings. The Padres got him to the finish line and he’s been a Top 30 SP according to the Razzball Player Rater. Urias could definitely match or best the 3.38 ERA/1.00 WHIP with 144 Ks we’ve seen from Paddack this year.
Cavan Biggio, 2B TOR | ADP 229 – High 203 – Low 285
His 29% strikeout rate sticks out and definitely hampers his batting average upside (.221), but the power-speed production is really useful at this pick level. His full season pace from 375 PA yields 24 HR and 20 SB. Only eight players have reached 20-20 this year so it’s worth taking the AVG hit for that kind of production. I’m in.
Aaron Civale, SP CLE | ADP 234 – High 151 – Low 293
The Cleveland Pitching Factory has its latest gem in Civale. The 24-year old right-hander ranked 22nd on Cleveland’s list coming into the season and then ripped through Double- and Triple-A before reaching the majors. He put up a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 72.7 innings across those two levels with a 19% K-BB rate. He debuted with a late-June spot start and threw six shutout innings against the Tigers before finally returning on August 5th.
Since then he’s reeled off seven strong starts, allowing two or fewer earned in each on his way to a 2.21 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 40.7 innings with a 15% K-BB rate. He doesn’t overpower, but his 93-mph fastball (a sinker, really) is perfectly capable and his deep arsenal gives him plenty of options. I don’t think he’s necessarily the next Shane Bieber, but I’m stocking up on him at this cost expecting something like a mid-3.00s ERA and 1.20s WHIP and this price offers leeway on that projection.
Griffin Canning, SP LAA | ADP 261 – High 195 – Low 322
Canning showed some impressive skills with a 25% K rate and 14% SwStr rate in 90.3 innings, but a 1.4 HR/9 saddled him with a 4.58 ERA. Some elbow inflammation ended his season in mid-August, but it shouldn’t be anything that lingers into 2020.
Josh VanMeter, OF CIN | ADP 300*
*He’d only gone in one draft when I wrote this
I love these power-speed guys, especially late. In 446 PA between Triple-A and the majors, he has 22 HR and 16 SB. He sits against lefties, but as a regular in the Cincinnati lineup over the second half, he put up 8 HR and 7 SB (a 20/20 full season pace) with a .247/.324/.463 line. I think the batting average could actually improve a bit over a full season, but I’d take that slash with a 20/20 season.
Who are some of your favorites going after pick-200? (ADP Sheet)