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As we head into primetime drafting season, I will be rereleasing my positional ranks. Here are my current ranks for the first base position for 2022, my third of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/
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Check out Michael’s shortstops:
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As we head into primetime drafting season, I will be rereleasing my positional ranks. Here are my current ranks for the catcher position for 2022, my third of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/ Read the rest of this entry »

2/24/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

FIRST BASE PREVIEW

The Studs (2:25)

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman

The Stars (16:45)

• Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, José Abreu

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Here is a tale of two tweets.

The first one tries to see if fantasy managers would consider rostering a great pitcher in every regard except they would have a 5.00 ERA.

Would you consider rostering an elite pitcher in all aspects (e.g. Woodruff) expect they would guarantee to have a 5.00 ERA (think Andrew Heaney HR issues but worse)?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) February 21, 2022

And now the same options (I see the steam vs. stream mistake, my bad!) but for a hitter who is projected to have a .220 AVG.

Would you consider rostering a hitter pitcher in all aspects (e.g. Kyle Tucker) expect they would be guaranteed to have a .220 AVG?

Assume a 5×5 Roto league.

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) February 22, 2022

The results are a stark difference. The deal is that a .220 AVG and a 5.00 ERA will hurt a roto team the same amount. While it may not be obvious, a little math might help. To determine the effects, I took the Standings Gain Points equations from 15-team redraft leagues from The Process (a great resource, you should buy it).

AVG SGP = ((1669+H)/(6525+AB)-0.256)/0.0012

ERA SGP = (((489+ER)*9)/(1122+IP)-3.92)/(-0.0566)

These formulas determine how much a fantasy team would move up and down the standings based on the rate stat. The volume does matter since it’s worse to add 150 innings of a 5.00 ERA to a team than just 20 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

The Starting Pitcher (Part I) Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Alex Chamberlain

Alex’s pitch tool

• Comparing players with similar pitches
• Finding undervalued players

Strategy Section

• Pitchers most likely to throw 200 innings in 2022
• Starting pitcher strategy
  • General – Auction vs. Snake Draft
  • Riskiness in the elite starting pitchers this season
  • Two 1As vs. an ace strategy for 2022
• Effect of the Universal DH
  • Pick the AL pitcher over the NL pitcher?
  • Draft a pitcher in a particular division?
• Undervalued prospects & sleeper pitchers
  • Peyton Battenfield
  • Patrick Sandoval

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Dual role pitcher profiled at RotoWire.

• Alzolay, Quantrill, Suarez (x2), Thompson (x2), C Hernandez ($)
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck ($)

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers
• Weaver, Bumgarner, Bundy, and Mikolas
• Kelly, Minor, Odorizzi, and Eflin
• Contreras, Wacha, Brubaker, and Lynch
• Rodriguez, Cabrera, Yarbrough, and Gil
• Bubic, Manning, Gomber, Lodolo, and Sanmartin
• Irvin, Beede, Keller, and Lorenzen

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Over the last few years the industry has begun to focus on NFBC leagues more and more. It is not because it is the most popular format in spite of its growth. It is because, on average, it has more competitive leagues due to the cost involved. This allows for a better average draft position. While ADP is not the end all be all, it can give us some insight into the market and if you have competing markets, it is good to compare them and see what information can be exploited. In this series of articles, I will look at the places where NFBC ADP is higher than the four other major platforms in an attempt to point out potential deals for those of you not playing on NFBC.  Read the rest of this entry »

FYI: I won’t be chatting on Wednesday, February 23rd. There will be a Top 100 Prospects chat in that timeslot!

First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 3-5 player, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers, 48 in 12s (which will be today’s focus), and 40 in 10s.

• Volume 1: 15-team Breakouts

Daulton Varsho | Arizona Diamondbacks, C/OF | 94 ADP

A catcher who runs and doesn’t always have to play behind the dish to get on the field is what fantasy darlings are made of and Varsho certainly has many proponents. A sharp second half (.879 OPS, 10 HR, 5 SB in 219 PA) has his biggest fans buying in completely while also bringing aboard some new fans. The real beauty with Varsho is the fact that he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield which gives him a potentially huge edge in volume over many other star catchers. That hasn’t been reflected in the projections with a high of 112 games, but if Carson Kelly stays healthy and holds the full-time catcher role, then Varsho could log north of 125 games with 100+ coming in the outfield. He has a great shot to deliver double-digit stolen bases, too, something that has been done just four times by a catcher since 2010 (J.T. Realmuto 2x in ’16 and ’21, Yadier Molina in ’12, and Jason Kendall in ’10).

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Let’s return without delay to the task at hand, which we began last week: our attempt to identify at least one lightly-regarded (cheap or reserve-round) player who might do something this season, assuming with unwarranted optimism that there’s a “this season” that isn’t next season. This week, we’ll look at the AL West and the NL East. The numbers in parentheses are NFBC Average Draft Positions for all drafts.

Angels: As we mentioned in our first article of the year, we like Michael Stefanic (not taken), who could be in the lineup if either something ill befalls David Fletcher or the team doesn’t sign a free-agent shortstop. He’ll hit .270, possibly with a bit of power. And we are struggling to overcome our repeated disappointments in Justin Upton (586) over the years. It’s not clear that he’s got a significant role on this team, but we can imagine him getting the same 250 or so PAs he got last year before he got hurt, and hitting about the same (14 HR, .247) minus some age-related decline, which makes him worth getting at ADP 586.

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