2022 Sporer Breakouts Vol. 2

FYI: I won’t be chatting on Wednesday, February 23rd. There will be a Top 100 Prospects chat in that timeslot!

First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 3-5 player, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers, 48 in 12s (which will be today’s focus), and 40 in 10s.

• Volume 1: 15-team Breakouts

Daulton Varsho | Arizona Diamondbacks, C/OF | 94 ADP

A catcher who runs and doesn’t always have to play behind the dish to get on the field is what fantasy darlings are made of and Varsho certainly has many proponents. A sharp second half (.879 OPS, 10 HR, 5 SB in 219 PA) has his biggest fans buying in completely while also bringing aboard some new fans. The real beauty with Varsho is the fact that he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield which gives him a potentially huge edge in volume over many other star catchers. That hasn’t been reflected in the projections with a high of 112 games, but if Carson Kelly stays healthy and holds the full-time catcher role, then Varsho could log north of 125 games with 100+ coming in the outfield. He has a great shot to deliver double-digit stolen bases, too, something that has been done just four times by a catcher since 2010 (J.T. Realmuto 2x in ’16 and ’21, Yadier Molina in ’12, and Jason Kendall in ’10).

Tyler Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds, C/1B | 142 ADP

It’s a catcher-heavy installation of Breakouts with a pair of ’em among today’s trio, though Stephenson is definitely offering something much different than Varsho. There is no speed component and the trade of Tucker Barnhart clears the path for Stephenson to become the primary guy in Cincinnati. The extra catching work and some off days out of the tools of ignorance spent at 1B or DH could push his volume closer to 450 PA. His strong plate skills (career 20% K, 10% BB, 7% SwStr) paired with budding power have me excited about his upside. His size (6’4, 225) and scouted raw power (65) set the foundation for power growth as I understand a .146 ISO doesn’t exactly scream improvement. There isn’t always an obvious metric to point to for a breakout, though. Plus, even a repeat (.286 AVG, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 56 R in 402 PA) wouldn’t be a miss for those who draft him somewhere in the 7-10 range among catchers, but I can see a 20-HR season with continued strong AVG and improved counting categories.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays, OF | 147 ADP

I’m back on the Gurriel Jr. train! I was big on him last year and feel like he was essentially a bad month from delivering what I was thinking he could do. Alas, those first 33 games did happen, so he wound up with a 107 wRC+, 21 HR, and 84 RBI in 541 PA. I still think there’s a 30-100 season in this bat with batting average upside that could push into the .300s and he will be just 28 years old this year.  With the departure of Marcus Semien, he is due for a lineup move, too. He is currently slotted in the 5-spot on Roster Resource after spending the bulk of 2021 in the 6- and 7-spots. A firm floor with some real upside in the heart of a premium lineup is the stuff breakouts are made of and I’m not sold we have seen the best of Gurriel Jr. yet.