2022 Sporer Breakouts Vol. 1

First things first, what’s the difference between a breakout and sleeper? Breakouts are about a new level of performance while sleepers are about where a player is drafted. I started my Sleeper series last week (Vol. 1) and identified the 21st round as the beginning of the sleeper pool. That first edition focused on 15-teamers so I started at pick-300 (I’ll have 10- and 12-team iterations coming, too). A breakout can come from the 2nd round if they ascend to a top 5 player next year, but I am looking for breakouts outside of the first 4 rounds so pick-60 in 15-teamers (which will be today’s focus), 48 in 12s, and 40 in 10s.

Max Fried | Atlanta Braves, SP | 71 ADP

If Fried hadn’t gotten hurt last year, he would’ve set a new high in innings and if his ratios had held (3.04 ERA/1.09 WHIP), it would’ve been the breakout. Instead, he matched his 2019 IP total (165.7) so I can still finagle him into a breakout situation with the idea being he pushes 185+ IP of equal or better ratios and perhaps even more strikeouts. We are only going into Fried’s third full season so there is still development happening here.

His three-pitch mix has been able to stifle both righties and lefties and the 11% swinging strike rate is enough to push his career 24% K rate even higher. Despite a consistent groundball lean, he had some hit-suppression issues early in his career. He has seen a significant jump there since the start of 2020 with a .221 BABIP after posting a .333 in his first 225.3 IP. A sub-8 H/9, 25%+ K rate, and a ~7% BB rate over 185 innings with a real shot at reaching 200 in a fully healthy season should yield a career year for the 28-year-old lefty. Our own Alex Sonty wrote the anti-Fried case up earlier this week and I encourage y’all to check it out. I obviously disagree on the volatility of Fried and see a developing arm whose best is yet to come.

Giovanny Gallegos | St. Louis Cardinals, RP | 115 ADP

I have made my love for Gallegos known throughout the offseason, starting back in Arizona when I took him in the third round of the 15-team NFBC draft, worried that he wouldn’t make it back to me. The market has made it clear that I needn’t be quite that high on him as the 11th reliever off the board, but I remain super interested in him as my 6th-ranked reliever. I understand that teams aren’t as set on using their best reliever at closer, realizing their value as flexible firemen who can come in at the game’s hottest point, even if that’s in the 7th or 8th inning.

@sporer @JustinMasonFWFB I have a hot tip for you all regarding Giovanny Gallegos. @stltoday writer Derek Goold was at Sabre Day St. Louis yesterday. He said that Gallegos will be sharing the closer role. He projected 20 saves for him, 15 – 18 for the other guy. Who? Tepera?

— Jeremy Gibbs (@JeremyGibbs2) January 30, 2022

Jeremy Gibbs shared this great note from the St. Louis SABR event that highlights Derrick Goold (you can see Goold confirming and expounded on this within the Twitter thread) saying Gallegos will remain in a fireman-type role and thus won’t necessarily be a great bet to rack up 30+ SVs like a Raisel Iglesias or Aroldis Chapman. While I would love Gallegos to be more of a traditional closer for fantasy purposes, I can still get plenty out of him with a low-20s SVs output. As I mentioned here, he was 13th-ranked reliever last year with 14 SVs, so if I get 21-24 with a 30%+ K rate and great ratios, he will easily be worth it as the 11th closer off the board. Think something similar to Emmanuel Clase or Jordan Romano from last year.

Ke’Bryan Hayes | Pittsburgh Pirates | 136 ADP

Hayes had a brilliant cup of coffee in 2020 (95 PA of 195 wRC+) which had many believing the blue-chip prospect had indeed arrived. But he played just 96 games and labored through hand and wrist issues that led to a measly output of 88 wRC+ with 6 HR and 9 SBs in 396 PA. Interestingly, the market is largely unmoved by his flop of a season. His ADP has dropped just over a round from 115 last year to 140 this year. Usually, an underperforming rookie gets hit much harder than this (see also: Bohm, Alec). The sky-high ceiling for the 25-year-old is why so many are barely moved by the unimpressive season.

The complete profile is what draws me to Hayes. He is generally viewed as a hit-for-average guy with solid pop, but the above average speed can be glossed over at times. Even in the down season, he was 9-for-10 on the bases and he averaged 20 SBs per 600 PA in the minors (2017 PA). A healthy Hayes could deliver a .280/20/20 season in 2022. His R/RBI could be held back by his poor surrounding lineup, but Bryan Reynolds had 93 R/90 RBI on the last place offense (609 runs) a year ago so there is even some upside there for Hayes. Plan for something more like 75/75, though.