Archive for Featured

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I wonder how many teams that drafted Ian Seymour are still benefitting from the fruits of his summer labor. A popular late round breakout pick after 57 solid innings to close out last year, Seymour didn’t make the rotation out of camp and promptly allowed 5 ER without getting an out in his season debut. If that didn’t lead to a rash of cuts, his residence in the bullpen for the first 2+ months almost certainly did in most leagues. In mid-June they started mixing him in for starts and extended follows (4, 5 IP in 2 starts; 3.3, 6.7 IP in 2 follows) and since July, he’s had a traditional starter’s workload with 7 starts and 2 long follows. In that stretch, he’s put up a 3.59 ERA/1.03 WHIP/25% K-BB, leading to 6 Ws in 13 appearances.

While I thought he had the workload established to avoid needing the ramp up management (143 in 2025; 145 in 2024), I did still think that Tampa Bay would take that approach. From my March SP rankings:

I’m a big Ian Seymour fan for 2026, just not necessarily 2026 drafts as he’s very likely to be an in-season reinforcement for the Rays so unless your league is setup to favor holding a guy for 4-6 weeks (Draft Champs, deep reserve AL-only or giant mixed lg), just keep tabs on him for a the call-up and be ready to pounce. He’s got an excellent changeup as his A-pitch and then four supporting pitches to craft the rest of his arsenal from, which makes sense when you throw 92 mph (multiple options instead of raw fastball dominance). After some early struggles as a pro (11%), his control took a leap in 2024 and has now sat around 7% for 288 IP, and he’s never had issues missing bats despite the lack of velocity (double-digit SwStr rates at every stop but one as a pro and that one sub-10% was for 4 IP). Seymour is likely their 4th best SP right now behind Ras, Pep, and Shane Mc, but in typical Rays fashion, they will likely try to get some innings out of Steven Matz and Nick Martinez at the frontend of the season before turning to the young lefty. They shouldn’t because after 143 IP last year, he can go a full season, but they almost certainlyyyyy will so plan accordingly.

Seymour’s excellent changeup helps him profile as the rare lefty who decimates righties (204-point reverse platoon OPS split: .622 vR, .826 vL) and the opposition almost protects him from his weakness, too, by stacking righties against him in hopes of getting a platoon edge that never seems to come their way. The lefty struggles are heavily tied to his 8 HRs allowed in 145 PA, compared to 7 vR in 254 PA. I still see a 25% K-BB (42 Ks, 6 BB) against lefties as a major reason to believe he will get better against them even if he regresses some against righties (a still-healthy 19% K-BB, but a .252 BABIP that won’t necessarily hold firm). If he continues to excel down the stretch, his draft price will skyrocket and he should be positioned to be a full-time starter out of camp for Tampa Bay in 2027. Does the original Seymour drafter still have him in your league?

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Astros

• Hunter Brown continues to have issues controlling his fastball.

In six of them, Brown has had an in-zone fastball rate of lower than 40 percent. Last month, Brown bemoaned a problem with the timing of his delivery — his upper and lower halves were not in perfect sync, Brown said. He has thus far been unable to correct the issue with any consistency.

“It just comes down to the fact that I should be able to throw my four-seam fastball in the strike zone,” Brown said. “Is it timing? Is it this? Is it that? Sure, there’s a lot that goes into it. But at the end of the day, I need to throw more strikes. That’s the bottom line.”

• Mike Burrows is no longer dealing with elbow neuritis and is returning to his old mechanics.

Meanwhile, right-hander Mike Burrows is hoping to be an option to rejoin the rotation down the stretch. On the injured list since early July with elbow neuritis, he threw 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his first rehab start Friday at Triple-A and is scheduled to start again for Sugar Land on Thursday.

“I think we were just identifying what I did well last year and trying to get back to some of those good movements that I had last year that can keep me feeling good throughout the year,” Burrows said. “It was really just harping on a couple of things posturally and [with] the release with some of the pitches.”

Burrows, who posted a 5.99 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) for the Astros this year, said Friday he had been dealing with elbow neuritis for six weeks prior to going on the injured list and was trying to manage it with antibiotics. He spent four weeks in West Palm Beach, Fla., resting and rehabbing, and said the issue is resolved.

Athletics

• Denzel Clarke is on a rehab assignment.

OF Denzel Clarke
Injury: Left hamstring strain
IL date: April 22 (transferred to 60-day IL on May 26)
Expected return: Early September
Status: Will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Las Vegas on Aug. 18 with a Spring Training-like progression.

The outfield is going to get crowded with Clarke (.417 OPS), Henry Bolte (.710 OPS), Carlos Cortes (.745 OPS), and Lawrence Butler (.656). While Clarke has struggled at the plate, he is one of the top few defensive outfielders in the league.

Blue Jays

• Spencer Arrighetti is struggling with his fastball velocity while on rehab.

RHP Spencer Arrighetti
Injury: Morton’s neuroma (right foot)
IL date: July 25 (15-day)
Expected return: Potentially late August
Status: Threw 50 pitches over 3 2/3 innings Aug. 16 in a rehab start with Triple-A Buffalo. Averaged 90.5 mph on his four-seamer, below his average of 92.4 mph this season in the big leagues. Could need at least one more rehab start.

I’m ignoring him for now.

Mariners

• Colt Emerson dealt with a wrist issue for a while.

SS Colt Emerson
Injury: Left wrist tendon inflammation
IL date: Aug. 14
Expected return: TBD
Status: Is in the process of seeing a specialist in Arizona for a more thorough evaluation of the issue, which has been bothering him for some time now.

Hopefully the injury helps explain his .581 OPS.

Rangers

• Jack Leiter (26% rostered) is about done with his rehab assignment.

RHP Jack Leiter
Injury: Right ankle arthroscopic surgery
IL date: June 21 (retroactive to June 19, transferred to 60-day IL on Aug. 9)
Expected return: August
Status: Pitched 2 2/3 innings in a rehab start with Triple-A Round Rock on Aug. 13, striking out three with one hit and one walk. Might not require another rehab start, depending on Jacob deGrom’s status.

Before going on the IL, he had a 5.29 ERA (4.25 xFIP), 1.44 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9.

Red Sox

• Trevor Story’s (31% rostered) rehab assignment is almost over.

SS Trevor Story
Injury: Sports hernia
IL date: May 16 (transferred to 60-day IL on June 4)
Expected return: Late August/early September
Status: Was 1-for-2 while playing four innings in rehab assignment opener on Aug. 16. Story is set to play seven to nine innings at shortstop for Triple-A Worcester on Aug. 18-19 and will be re-evaluated from there.

Twins

• Zebby Matthews has new cleats after dealing with a blister since July.

Though Matthews struggled in the sixth, he held Atlanta scoreless through five innings. Wearing new cleats for the second start in a row, Matthews said a blister/foot laceration issue he’s dealt with since July is subsiding.

Matthews’ record improved to 7-8 as he struck out four and allowed a run in 5 2/3 innings.

“Foot’s been great,” Matthews said. “Switched cleats and got new turf toe. Shout-out Under Armour cleats I guess, I don’t know. It’s been good.”

Yankees

• If Clarke Schmidt returns this season, it will be in the bullpen.

RHP Clarke Schmidt
Injury: Tommy John surgery recovery
IL date: Feb. 12 (60-day IL)
Expected return: Possibly August
Status: Has resumed playing catch after experiencing right forearm cramping during Aug. 4 live batting practice. Yankees are getting him ready to return in a bullpen role, but he has yet to throw from a mound again.

National League

Brewers

• Sal Frelick and Cooper Pratt are on rehab assignments.

OF Sal Frelick
Injury: Right shoulder strain
IL date: July 18 (10-day IL)
Expected return: As soon as the week of Aug. 17
Status: After beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville as the designated hitter, played right field on Aug. 14 and Aug. 16 and was getting close to a comeback. “Sal will know when he’s ready,” Pat Murphy said.
…
SS Cooper Pratt
Injury: Right hamstring strain
IL date: Aug. 9 (10-day IL)
Expected return: Late August
Status: Will begin a rehab assignment on Aug. 18 at High-A Wisconsin, that club announced.

Looking back at mid-June to mid-July, when both were healthy, the lineup was a constant mess, and it was tough to find regulars. I suspect something similar this time.

Update: The team sent Pratt to the minors.

Milwaukee Brewers sent SS Cooper Pratt on a rehab assignment to Wisconsin Timber Rattlers.

— MLB Transaction Bot (@transactionbot.bsky.social) 2026-08-19T19:34:19.997711+00:00

Cubs

• Justin Steele and Ben Brown will not be joining the rotation, but will be in the bullpen once healthy.

Two pitchers who are on the IL with starting in their backgrounds are righty Ben Brown and lefty Justin Steele. They have both advanced to throwing off a mound, but they are not expected to be rotation reinforcements down the stretch.

Brown thrived as a high-leverage, multi-inning reliever earlier in the season, and that could be an option once again for him in September and possibly in the playoffs. As for Steele, given that he has missed the bulk of two seasons after left elbow surgery, Chicago’s focus is to get him into game action before the end of the year. That means a Minor League rehab assignment, with any appearances for the Cubs viewed at this point as a potential bonus.

Diamondbacks

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is about done with his rehab assignment and headed to a crowded outfield.

Where Gurriel plays in a crowded outfield when he gets back is another can of worms considering the Diamondbacks have seven outfielder already on the roster, including utility man Tim Tawa.

Corbin Carroll is in right field every day. Right-handed hitters Ryan Waldschmidt and Lawlar can play center or left. Left-handed hitters Max Kepler and Lars Nootbaar have been swapping between left field and designated hitter against righties. Switch-hitter Jorge Barrosa is a late-game substitution most of the time.

With that much depth, Gurriel may have to adapt to a different role when he returns compared to what it was when he went down.

Maybe someone can learn to play second base.

Giants

• Blade Tidwell pitched with a sore back.

But Tidwell was dealing with back soreness, and Vitello said the coaching staff had monitored his drop in velocity. The Giants didn’t go any further with Tidwell after he issued a pair of one-out walks in the fifth.

Next time, don’t pitch hurt. In 4 IP, he allowed 6 ER on 1 K and 5 BB.

• Marcelo Mayer (5% rostered) is nearing the end of his rehab assignment.

SS Marcelo Mayer
Injury: Bone stress reaction, left ulna
IL date: June 26 (10-day IL)
Expected return: August
Status: Began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Aug. 13. Could return during the Giants’ upcoming trip to Cleveland and Boston.

In his rehab, he’s struggling to make contact with a 47% K% and 64% Contact% (19 PA).

Marlins

• During the All-Star break, Pete Fairbanks reworked his delivery.

During the All-Star break, Fairbanks and pitching coach Daniel Moskos huddled up to discuss how the 32-year-old closer could regain his dominant form, and they landed on raising the arm angle on his delivery.

The right-hander has consistently had one of the highest releases in the sport, as high as a 63 degree angle in 2021 and sitting at 59 degrees last season. However, Fairbanks had dropped his arm down to 53.4 degrees in the first half.

“We wanted to get back, lean into more of his north-south approach, something he’s done pretty much his entire career,” Moskos said. “That was a little bit of a delivery tweak, and you’ve seen him really take off and run with it. … It’s been pretty clean, pretty good. You’re starting to see the at-bats look a lot less comfortable against left-handers specifically. He’s been pretty good against righties all year, but the left-handed-batter approach is something that we certainly had our eye on.”

He’s improved with a 20% K-BB% before the break and a 33% K-BB% after it.

Nationals

• CJ Abrams wants to improve his shortstop defense so he can continue to play there instead of moving to second base.

Sanders doubled down on Abrams’ assertion that he views himself as a shortstop long-term, and indicated that his client intends to spend the winter focused on improving his defense at his preferred position. Sanders believes Abrams has earned an offseason to prove that he can stick at short.

“He’s always viewed himself as a shortstop short-term and long-term, and would love to have the offseason under this front office to be able to work on that,” Sanders said. “I believe CJ can be a very good shortstop, and without having an offseason to specifically train at the position using the information and feedback this staff has given him, I don’t think we have a full evaluation yet of how good he can truly be there.”

Phillies

• Andrew Painter wants his four-seam fastball to have 18″ of vertical break.

Painter has made clear that he wants to get the pitch back to where it was before Tommy John surgery in 2023. He wants the inverted break, otherwise known as vertical ride, around 18 inches — a foot and a half — because that is where the pitch can start missing bats again when he locates it in the zone.

That is where it was on March 1, 2023, in a spring training outing against the Twins, the day that later led to the torn UCL diagnosis.

On Sunday, he said his four-seam fastball was the “best it’s been since TJ.”

It averaged more than 18 inches of vertical break, after mostly sitting around 16 inches this season and closer to 14 inches in recent starts.

As seen in this graph, he’s reached that break in two to three starts, but it has eluded him most of the season.

Pirates

• The team hopes Konnor Griffin will come off the IL on September 4th.

SS Konnor Griffin
Injury: Torn left ring finger sagittal band
IL date: July 7 (transferred to 60-day IL on July 11)
Expected return: Early September
Status: Injured the finger on a diving play on July 5. No longer needs a splint after wearing one for six weeks. Will advance to baseball activities and head to Bradenton, Fla., on Aug. 19. Pirates are optimistic Griffin will be ready when eligible, on Sept. 4.

• According to the manager, Luke Weaver and Mason Montgomery will get the team’s Save opportunities.

“Maybe we get there. I don’t know,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said of definitively placing roles on his relievers. “Right now, I’d still say we’re Weaver and Montgomery in the eighth and ninth, just depending on what the matchups are looking like.”

• With Oneil Cruz off the IL, Jake Mangum will play some center and left field.

Mangum relished the ability to play consistently in the big leagues, entering Monday batting .300 while performing largely out of the leadoff spot and becoming the Pirates’ nominee for the Heart & Hustle Award. While Mangum won’t be in center field as much with Cruz easing back in, Pirates manager Don Kelly expects Mangum to still play plenty in center and left.

“It’s nice to be in rhythm. You’re in rhythm with a game,” Mangum said. “When you’re in that fourth outfield role, it’s challenging to stay locked in every day. You feel like you need to work pregame to stay ready for the game, but then you’re sore when you go into the game later that night. Playing every day allows you to get into a rhythm for sure. It’s a challenging thing to come in off the bench in this league and get one at-bat.”

In three games since Cruz returned, Mangum started in two of three games with Cruz sitting against the one lefty starter.

Rockies

• Kyle Karros (47% rostered) is close to rejoining the team.

3B Kyle Karros
Injury: Concussion
IL date: Aug. 12 (7-day IL)
Expected return: TBD
Status: Injured in an on-field collision with shortstop Ezequiel Tovar on Aug. 11. Is running, hitting and fielding in Arizona and could rejoin the club soon, according to head athletic trainer Keith Dugger.

Willi Castro has been playing third base with Karros gone.

Thanks for coming out!!

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I haven’t fallen asleep before posting in a while, but I crashed after the Tigers game. I’m adding comments right now (as this goes up at 8 AM CT), but wanted to get the base post up right away since I’m late.

Pfaadt has returned to the majors with a vengeance and some of the best success of his career. A rough start in the rotation led to a role change but the bullpen didn’t go any better and eventually saw him demoted to a Triple-A in early-June. After three “opens” (they were starts, but all under 4 IP), he returned with 5.3 strong IP v. SFG, netting his first W of the year followed by an even sharper 5 IP outing at SDP that included 6 Ks/0 BB. Given the offenses in question, I remained skeptical. A solid start at LAD (5.3 IP/2 ER, but just 2 Ks) resulted in a 3rd straight W and he’d eventually run the streak up to 5 straight Ws. I still wasn’t sold that it was a transformation, citing his 200-pt. platoon split in the August 3rd SP Chart.

Now nine starts into his return, Pfaadt has certainly shown it’s more than a hot run. He’s even made it into the 7th inning in each of his last four, completing it three times, running his record up to 7-0 in the process. There’s at least a souvenir cup-sized of cold water to throw on this with a meager 14% K rate that gives him an out of place 11% K-BB to go with the incredible 1.16 ERA/0.89 WHIP. Premium control (3% BB), a .237 BABIP, and just 1 HR allowed (0.2 HR9) have overrun the need for strikeouts, at least for now. Let’s be honest, only the walk rate is truly skill-based, meaning the other two are ripe for regression. More 4-seamers (+10 pts to 30% usage compared to pre-demotion) are leading his 3-headed fastball approach (4-seamer, sinker, cutter) along with a huge surge in changeup usage (+13 pts to 22%) making him formidable against lefties for the first time… ever? Southpaws have just a .218 wOBA against Pfaadt since returning, down from .405, while he’s also gotten better versus righties, dropping from .284 to .227 wOBA.

Pitchers can succeed for long periods without a ton of strikeouts. It’s not the best day to cite him after a 6 ER Dud last night, but Nick Martinez has a 3.05 ERA/1.14 WHIP this year despite just an 11% K-BB in 142 IP. He’s one of nine guys with a sub-3.50 ERA and K-BB no higher than 12% in at least 100 IP. Only three of them have a 20% or better K rate, none eclipsing the 22% league average (Walbert Ureña 22%, Michael King 21%, and Robbie Ray 20%). They all have a SIERA in the mid-4.00s, ranging from 4.33 to 4.90 and it’s hard not to think there are some Duds in the offing for Pfaadt if the skills remain down here. He’s doing positive things that are driving enough bankable success to get him into rotations in any league size, but he still isn’t close to a set it and forget it type and won’t be able to achieve that level without cultivating a swing-and-miss pitch he can believe in start-to-start.

• Cavalli hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 12 starts, netting a 2.82 ERA/1.04 WHIP with a sharp 22% K-BB, fueled by a pair of double-digit strikeout games and four more with at least 7 Ks. He was lifted before a total implosion in the worst two of these 12 starts with early walks (5 BB in the 5 IP of these two outings) perhaps being a key indicator that it’s not his day. Unsurprisingly, he has 3+ BB in 5 of his 8 worst starts by Game Score (far from a perfect measure of a game, but a useful starting point in bucketing good/bat outings) this year. TEX is bottom 10 in BB% vR on the year and 27th in the L30 days (7%) along with the 3rd highest K% (26%) in that same time.
• Offff course May has two gems since joining MIL! He closed his STL tenure with a pair as well, so it’s been four straight good ones since his last Dud, posting a 1.50 ERA/0.96 WHIP/15% K-BB in 24 IP. I was definitely carrying some residual sourness from buying in after his 17 scoreless IP in mid-June only to see him allow 11 ER in 2.7 IP over his next two starts at KCR and at ATL. He’s earned enough trust that his next Dud won’t instantly have me running for the hills.
• Holmes was sharp in his 2nd start off the IL with 6.7 IP of 1-hit shutout ball. Only 3 Ks, but that’s never been the focus of his game with an elite groundball rate that should play very nicely with this defense behind him. Now they did lose Dansby Swanson which moves Nico Hoerner over to SS and Pedro Ramírez into the everyday 2B role which no doubt weakens the overall unit, but not enough to become a liability for Holmes.

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy baseball is hard. Veteran fantasy managers and analysts are usually quite spunky and confident before the season starts. We spend hours upon hours over several months researching players, keeping up with depth charts, player news, and draft boards, focusing on a variety of different elements from projections, roster construction and game theory. We have good fantasy seasons and bad ones, but no matter how well or poor we do, we are always humbled and reminded that this environment is pure chaos, which we immediately feel every Opening Day. Just ask the person in your league who spent their first-round pick on Paul Skenes.

After all, these are human beings playing the game, not robots. Sure, they are professional athletes who receive incomes many of us will never a sniff a sliver of, and their physical abilities are superhuman, but they are people, nevertheless. They go through constant patterns of performance fluctuation, suffer injuries, tolerate physical pain, rehab, sometimes have setbacks, and continue to encounter further performance fluctuations. Some, or perhaps most, endure personal issues and trauma that impact their on-field output that we never hear about. They are publicly questioned, and constantly judged, scrutinized, and lambasted. Some receive death threats via DM because they were one hit short of someone hitting their parlay. These players are people with feelings and emotions, just like you and I. We often have difficulty figuring out what’s going on in our own head. What makes us think we can do so in someone else’s?

There once was a probably quiet boy named Kyle who really loved to play baseball. He grew up around the turn of the century, playing it probably every day, in his hometown of Tampa, Florida. He continued to excel at the game and was professionally scouted and nationally renowned. In 2015, the year that the boy legally become an adult and was a high school senior, he batted .484, was named Baseball America High School Player of the Year and was drafted fifth overall by the Houston Astros. As you may already know, this Kyle is Tucker and he is a four-time MLB All-Star and a World Series champion. Over the last two seasons, he has dealt with serious injuries. Now the baseball world is watching Kyle struggle in real time, and we all have something to say about it. I mean, he’s taking home $55M this year and he “doesn’t even care!” This season, he is batting .189 with just two home runs in 60 games at Dodger Stadium. He was hitless over a seven-game stretch until Tuesday. During a telecast on Monday, Dodgers broadcaster Eric Karros suggested that Tucker should have a “reset” and be demoted to Triple-A. It all came to a head on social media when he dropped a routine fly ball on Monday night. Dodger fans booed him for it.

Kyle Tucker was seen crying in the Dodgers dugout as his struggles continue 😢 pic.twitter.com/Wce6xIkebv

— Punchoutpitch (@Punchoutpitch) August 18, 2026

Droves of folks on social media have been mocking him and laughing at him — baseball fans, Dodger haters, which seems to be most baseball fans these days, and fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or second, alike — grown adults who suggest he can just wipe his tears away with his money. Not that it really matters, but it obviously doesn’t look like Tucker is crying here. And if he was, would that then nullify the unfounded preseason hubbub about him not caring about baseball because if you’re showing emotion that means you actually care? It makes no difference because social media is an unfiltered and unaccountable cesspool of opinions and arguments that can be framed in any which way. There is no winning there, only time wasted scrolling afternoons away, reading drivel.

None of us know Kyle personally. We don’t know why he is struggling at the plate, but whatever it is, it goes beyond the baseball field. We make it our business because he’s in the public eye and we have forums to do so — because he’s not the same productive hitter he once was; because he makes a wild amount of money, most of it deferred through a loophole; because he’s on a team now known as the new Evil Empire. I’m not defending him simply because he’s a Dodger, but because he’s a human being. I doubt you’ve read about an eyewitness account of him being a bad or nasty person. He catches flak because of his reserved personality, which comes across as apathetic. Coupled that with his disaster season, and he becomes an easy target for criticism. Kyle has gone through lows, but this sure feels like his career rock-bottom. Three years ago, he was Pete Crow-Armstrong without the panache and the sprint speed. I may not be a fan of PCA’s persona, but I can’t not like him personally because I don’t know him. He’s quite obviously a gamer, and Cubs fans should be proud. As a fantasy analyst and high-stakes player, it’s imperative that personal feelings aren’t part of my analytical equations. I don’t have the energy to debate folks on social media who I’ve never met about whether Pete or Shohei Ohtani are more deserving of the NL MVP, five weeks before the regular season ends. If PCA wins the award in November, it’s because of how the BBWAA writers voted and he probably will deserve it. If I was a voter, I’d like to think that I would be fair and impartial, voting based on my interpretation of what MVP meant and the actual results; not using the privilege to tip the scales toward Ohtani’s legacy and him being one step closer to Barry Bonds’ seven MVP awards.

Back to Kyle Tucker, I was confident that he would have a strong first season with the Dodgers, so much so, that I put my money where my mouth was by heavily targeting and drafting him. Looking back, I did not do so objectively. You may say my Dodger blinders were on, but I obviously wasn’t the only one, and there was a lot to like. As a generally optimistic person, I chose to focus on the positive aspects of his new scenario: that he always produced at a first-round fantasy level when healthy, that he was healthy now, and that he would adjust well and thrive in a winning and committed organization, uplifted by a seasoned manager like Dave Roberts and a cast of veterans like Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and others he could drive in to score with a double in his sleep. My positive bias brushed aside the downside of his recent health history and the possibility that he could crumble under the pressure of his massive contract in a new environment. If you recall, there was the offseason narrative that Tucker could just blend in and stay out of the spotlight under the shelter of the team’s countless other stars. On the surface, this logic is palatable, but it’s a good reminder why very few skills are more important in life than critical thinking. I could have spent less than a minute deconstructing that logic by reminding myself of his Pressure+ rating of 245 based on being a detested Dodger, with the heftiest AAV in history, and that staying out of the spotlight and away from criticism in this day and age was downright improbable. Oh, and hadn’t he played several seasons along bigger stars like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa?

I do strongly believe that the comparisons to Anthony Rendon are unfair and is low-hanging fruit for engagement farmers on social media. Tucker and Rendon both signed massive deals and haven’t produced on the field since signing, but that is where the comparison should end. Anthony has been vocal about the fact that baseball “has never been a top priority” and that there are too many games in a season. I can respect his “faith and family first” stance, but he avalanched our collective uproar over several years by becoming the poster boy of unproductive mega-contracts in sports. His April 2023 altercation with an Oakland A’s fan didn’t help his reputation, nor did a 2014 interview with The Washington Post where he said that he preferred watching The History Channel to baseball because the game is “too long and boring”. He is on the final year of his $245M contract, is on the 60-day (660-day?) injured list following hip surgery, won’t play again this season and will very likely retire soon. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker may not be the most vivacious or charming player, but those things aren’t part of the job description. He may appear dispassionate to fans, but those who have played with him compliment his low-key temperament. Here’s what Pete Alonso had to say about his old high school teammate’s mellow vibe in a March 2025 article on ESPN:

[Alonso] likens his personality to his game. Steady and consistent, from his prep days into his major league career.

“Honestly, he’s the same guy,” Alonso said after a recent spring training game. “He hasn’t changed a bit. I mean, he keeps the game simple. He’s just got this even-keel emotion about him both on and off the field.”

[Kyle] Tucker is aware of his reputation but says he does speak up when he needs to — even if he prefers to let his game do the talking.

“I feel like people think I’m pretty quiet and reserved, which I guess I am, but people probably think I’m more [reserved] than I actually am,” Tucker said recently. “I’m decently outgoing.”

Kyle Tucker turns 30 in January and his baseball story is far from over. Redraft managers who started drafts with with Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the 1-2 turn probably aren’t competing for league titles. Some of those folks will be gun-shy when ranking Kyle (and Vladdy) next March, even at their new, lower ADPs. Dynasty and keeper league managers feel like they’ve taken a massive “L” and may have already sold him for pennies on the dollar. For those holding on, it would be wise to review comparable deals if any arise. Those would likely be buy-low offers that should be politely declined. The best move for Tucker holders in dynasty or keeper leagues is just that…hold on.

If he is optioned and spends two weeks in Triple-A to get him back on the success track he is used to, then, so be it. This management team knows what they are doing. Kyle still has the rest of this month, all of September, and the playoffs, to figure it out and get back to confidently hitting like Kyle. If he’s Kyle Tucker, Playoff Hero this fall, he still won’t be a redraft second-rounder next season, but at least we’ll know that he found what he was looking for. I root for Kyle to break out of this season-long funk as I have been for Austin Riley during his monthslong rough patch, and for Austin Meadows many years ago, albeit different circumstances, for which I still wish him the best. Kyle and Austin are Major League ballplayers, but before that they were, and still are, people. Regardless of how much money they make, if they’re on our fantasy teams, or if they prefer to not exuberantly bat-flip in for longball celebrations, we should still be rooting for them. Fantasy baseball is hard, but playing 150+ grueling contests over a six-to-seven month stretch against the best of the best and producing at a consistent and high level against your talented and sometimes superhuman peers, is much, much harder.

So go ahead, Kyle. Have a good cry if you need to, take the reset with humility if it’s mandated, utilize their top sports psychologist if you haven’t already, or maybe try a custom “darkness retreat” to help refocus your mind and quell your soul. Try it all. Whatever it takes. I look forward to seeing you back at the top of your game soon, sans the 20+ SBs seasons, whether or not you’re on my fantasy team or the real-life baseball team I grew up watching since 1988.

A criminal action:

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, I watched Foolish Bailey’s most recent video on pitcher command. He used Red Sox rookie starter Jake Bennett to run through the different ways to quantify command.

It’s pretty fun. 

In it, Bailey points out that Bennett intentionally throws his fastball up in the zone, using Bennett’s heat map to demonstrate frequency, his 115 Location+ to demonstrate efficacy, and Bailey’s own “Upstairs” metric, describing pitches thrown just above the strike zone, to reiterate the heatmap and emphasize Bennett’s intent relative to other pitchers, as Bennett leads all pitchers on percentage of Upstairs four-seamers this season.

Bailey went on to highlight Bennett’s lackluster four seam fastball in a vacuum, that is elevated by tunnelling with and playing off of his other pitches, particularly his sinker and changeup. All three of these pitches, Bailey points out, have positive run values for the rookie. 

But what was most interesting to me was how Bailey concluded the video. He’d already proven Bennett throws with intent, locating his fastball well in relation to his offerings with better stuff to maximize his outcomes. But then he shifted to batted ball outcomes. Bennet’s sinker has elicited a 69% groundball rate and his fourseam a 26.7% IFFB%.

Bailey described himself as having “taken the pop up pill”, comparing infield pop ups to strikeouts in terms of utility to a pitcher. He showed us a list of pitchers with 70+ innings this season and both high GB% and IFFB%. Here’s that list. 

Obviously, there’s some aces here and some low ERAs. 

Bailey then shows Bennett’s league-leading Launch Angle Sweet Spot rate, which places him atop a list that includes Shohei Ohtani, Trevor McDonald, Janson Junk, and Framber Valdez. Not as impressive as the other list. 

The premise seemed logical to me. As Bailey puts it, pitchers with good command throw pitches in locations that get a lot of strikes and a lot of suboptimal contact. 

I was left wanting more. I wanted to know if Jake Bennett possesses a skill that historically is repeatable for pitchers. I think we assume we know “ground ball guys.” But is inducing infield pop ups a repeatable skill? And does it impact ERA in the same way a high ground ball rate does? I wanted to know if Bailey had shown why Bennett’s ERA was great this season, and if that “why” was worth turning into a strategy to predict future season ERA for other pitchers. 

Here’s what I found. 

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• Harrison got trounced at SDP, including a Luis Rengifo grand slam, but just 3 of the 8 runs were earned. Unfortunately, there were no “unearned baserunners” so the 10 H and 3 BB resulted in a disgusting 2.77 WHIP. The fastball velo was down to 93.2, compared to a season mark of 94.9 and 94.6 in his first start off the IL which does give some pause that this is more than just regular ol’ bad start (hat tip to trashpanda in the comments for posting the velo info right as I was about to go search it up and saved me the trouble!), but I’m still riding with him today and this will be a pivotal start in determining there’s more to worry about. If it was a really tough matchup, I might suggest more caution in shallower leagues, but catching the lowly M’s gives him a great chance to get right and shake this one. Regardless of the results, keep an eye on the velo. Sub-94 mph again and we start to get some real concerns.
• Ray has 8 BB in 2 starts w/SDP after just 5 in his final 3 w/SFG which is just the standard inconsistency that comes with his game. NYM is surging of late vL (8th in L30 days) but it’s not enough to take me off this start. Ray is someone you generally just set and forget outside of injury. When he’s on, no one can touch him.
• Maybe Martinez should be above the trio of lefties with how electric his season has been for Tampa Bay. His already modest K% is even lower this year at just 14% and yet he’s got some of the best ratios going at 2.74 ERA/1.09 WHIP. MLB-bests of 4% BB and 85% LOB are working in concert to keep his WHIP tiny and make sure that his 1.0 HR9 stings a lot less than normal. There’s still some real “run-hot” to the season, but dammit, the Rays did it again!!
• Y’all already know I’m terrified about Baz being this high, but he’s earned it and of course, NYY is ripe for the picking right now (here comes 6 ER now that I said that, of course). Even with a Dud last time out, Baz has a solid 3.39 ERA/1.33 WHIP/15% K-BB in his L8. There’s still plenty of risk here even with the hapless Yankees.
• SDP’s offensive surge has come more vR than vL, but they are up to 11th in wOBA over the last month against southpaws so don’t take that 26th season rank totally to heart. I mentioned this briefly yesterday that we’ll need to be careful starting any ol’ pitcher against SDP as we were throughout most of the summer, but Thornton still clears the bar to get a full reco from me. He is susceptible here if the Ks remain light, though. He has just 7 total in his L3 starts for a mere 10% K%.
• Ashcraft battled through a brutal July, posting a 7.78 ERA in four starts, but he’s hit the road in August to get right. In three straight roadies, he’s allowed just 5 ER in 19 IP (2.37 ERA) and had his best start of the year last time out, allowing just a solo shot in a complete game at MIA with 10 Ks.
• Well, we mega-whiffed on Mahle! Justin, Jason and I thought his move from SFG to ATL would be a total bust given how much of a stark home/road split he had with the Giants. Instead, he’s had two of his best starts of the year, one at NYY and the other hosting NYM. Sure, neither of those offenses are anywhere close to scary, but I was concerned that Mahle would actively hurt fantasy teams regardless of who he was facing. This is a nice challenge for Mahle as MIN can hit it outta the park and they’ve been 11th in runs against righties.
• After an unstoppable 7-start run to open the year, Soriano labored through May and June, posting a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, boosting his ERA from 0.84 to 3.42 in the process. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts since then, but it’s worth noting that the 2.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP combo since then comes with just an 8% K-BB (he was at 20% during his opening 7-start surge). With that in mind, he’s not a must-start in the shallowest of formats, especially against a tough TBR team.

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’ll add some comments in the AM!

• This doesn’t really apply to McLean today as he’s an auto start everywhere, but it’s worth noting that SDP is on fire of late, sitting 1st in wOBA vR over the L30 days. They’re also up to 10th vL after spending the vast majority of the year in the bottom 5 both ways. This will definitely be a bigger deal for their MIN series later in the week and might cost Zac Thornton an “x” for Tuesday’s board.
• Wacha gets a remarkably hobbled ATH team with Tyler Soderstrom joining the rest of their best players on the IL. They’re on the road all week so it’s easy to play against them in that situation even without all the injuries, but now we might start considering more arms against them at home next week and beyond.
• I really don’t mind running Snell in any format, even in Coors. I gave him the extra “x” this morning after just 2-x on the initial board. Yes, Coors can clip anyone at any time, but we’re talking probabilities and it’s hard for me to drum up any major concern about the Rockies, even at home. The strength of their lineup comes from the left side, too, which obviously plays into Snell even more.
• McClanahan comes off the IL for a bizarre 2-step where he’s facing BAL both times thanks to a wraparound series that has him finishing the weekend set today and then getting ’em again this weekend at BAL.
• Board might feel a bit thin when Perez, Pallante, and Bello (who isn’t even traditionally starting) hit the Top 10, but they’re all deserving. Perez has been flat out amazing all year with a 2.96 ERA/1.15 WHIP in 106.3 IP and is currently in the midst of an 18-IP scoreless streak. Even with a pair of Duds (5+ ER outing) mixed in, Pallante has a sparkling 2.88 ERA over his L12 starts, totaling 72 IP. He’s still skills-light with just a 9% K-BB but a groundball stud with a great defense behind him can outrun modest strikeout numbers more easily. There’s still high risk with any given start, but hard to get him outta the rotation these days. And Bello has been dialed in since going to an extended RP role, posting an 0.81 ERA and WHIP across 6 appearances (22.7 IP) with a 20% K-BB. He hasn’t been a traditional Follower in each, notching a 3-IP SV in one of them, but he is lined up to follow today.
• Castillo is coming off a beautiful outing v. CIN last time out (7 IP of 1-hit ball w/10 Ks), but let’s keep things in perspective and not immediately throw him back into every lineup. The two starts before this were both Duds and the recently outing only just got him back below 5.00 ERA for the year (4.96).
• I took Mlodzinski’s “x” from the initial post upon further review. He has a pair of bad 3 IP outings since returning to the rotation and it’s not like the DET offense is a rollover. I’d probably start Bratt over him (not that I’m interested in either).

—

Read the rest of this entry »