Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Angels
• Vaughn Grissom (vs LHP) and Adam Frazier form a second base platoon.
• Yoán Moncada (.679 OPS) and Oswald Peraza (.889 OPS) are splitting time at third base. Read the rest of this entry »
I woke up on April 25th of 2005 like I did any other day. I only had vague recollections of the night before and I was shaky and a bit nauseous, but that was normal because I was an alcoholic. I grabbed the bottle that was reserved for the mornings and I walked over to the sink in my bathroom. I looked in the mirror and didn’t like who looked back at me. Instead of pouring the contents of that bottle into a glass, I poured it down the sink. I was sick and tired of being sick and tired.
Patience. Read the rest of this entry »
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Earlier this week on the CBS Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Chris Towers noted that Shane McClanahan was struggling more than he would have expected, even with his STUPH model grades down. Chris wondered if a pitcher’s STUPH drops to a new level, does the pitcher perform worse than those who were already at that level? Pitchers need time to adjust to their new talent level. Well, I decided to give the question a quick look.
When McClanahan last threw back in 2023, he had a Pitching+ of 115, and now has a Pitching+ of 90. While he has the same number of strikeouts (9 K/9), the rest of his results have been horrible (5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) as his walks have ballooned (5.5 BB/9). The biggest issue with analyzing this change is that it is extreme, with a two-year gap between throwing. I needed to simplify the search.
Finding a large enough sample set was a pain. The set needs to include starting pitchers (I stayed away from combining starters and relievers) with a STUPH decline into a range with a large enough sample of other pitchers already pitching in that range. And all this occurs in the few seasons that STUPH models have existed. In the end, I went with Pitching+ as my metric because I wanted the pitcher’s overall talent. Also, I wanted a quick snapshot, not a full-blown study. Future studies could use several factors.
For the sample, I took all starters with at least 40 IP in back-to-back seasons. I subdivided that group into pitchers who saw their Pitching+ drop between five and 10 points into the 95 to 105 Pitching+ range (n=26). Then I created another group of pitchers with a 97.5 to 102.5 Pitching+ range in subsequent seasons (n=37).
Here are the average values from the two samples.
| STUPH Model | Previous Pitching + | Pitching+ | Stuff+ | Location+ | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | K/9 | BB/9 | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitching+ Decline to Range | 106.8 | 100.2 | 96.7 | 102.8 | 108 | 4.50 | 4.51 | 4.26 | 4.34 | 8.70 | 3.39 | 1.35 |
| Pitching + Stable in Range | 100.0 | 100.1 | 97.5 | 102.1 | 125 | 3.86 | 3.97 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 8.45 | 2.84 | 1.24 |
Even though Pitching+ was the factor controlled for, both sets’ Stuff+ and Location+ values ended up similar. And that’s about it for any similarities. The declining pitchers threw fewer innings (possible injury?) with an ERA that’s 0.64 higher and a WHIP that’s 0.11 higher. These pitchers seemed to struggle at the new talent level compared to pitchers who had time to adjust to it.
The effects seen by this one small subset mean someone should dive in to verify the results. The different ways to cut up the data could be endless. Different change sizes? Include TheBot Values? Do changes in Stuff values lead to changes in Location values? After a season with worse STUPH, do the pitchers’ results improve? As long as the sample sizes remain reasonable, the combinations are endless. I’m afraid Chris opened a can of worms.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are seven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Angels
• Yusei Kikuchi went back to his old mechanics with some improved results.
After struggling in his first four starts of the season, the left-hander turned it around by striking out eight over six scoreless innings in a 4-1 loss to the Padres on Saturday night at Angel Stadium. And Kikuchi said it happened after he reverted to a similar arm angle to last year after experimenting with a higher release point through his first four starts.
“I went over my mechanics this week and I think that brought me good results,” Kikuchi said through interpreter Koki Goto. “Going into this season, I raised my arm angle to become a better pitcher, but for the first four games, it didn’t work out well, so I brought back last year’s form. I tried to recall the drills I did, and I think that brought me good results.”
…
He also did it with better velocity, as his four-seamer reached as high as 98.6 mph and averaged 96.4 mph, which was 1.3 mph higher than his season average. He also threw it 45 percent of the time, which was way up from his season average of 25 percent.
As long as Kikuchi throws strikes (1 BB with his new arm slot), he can be an effective pitcher. His problem is that he’s had two, four-walk games so far this season with 9 ER in 8 IP. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.
Note: 2026 data is now featured in the chart as of April 13th! We’re still dealing with small samples, but I’ve taken out the 2025 data and you will now see the pitcher’s current numbers and the wOBA rank for their opponent this year so far!
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations, you don’t really need a shiny stat to be convinced on starting guys like that. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you an answer when I can. I try to do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Riley – 1, Wall – 0
Read the rest of this entry »