Starting Pitcher 2026 Fantasy Rankings

Either of the “Sk Boys” are viable in the 1-spot and I’m leaning toward Tarik Skubal because of the Tigers though still unrelated to my fandom of them. In fantasy baseball, team context matters it’s still clear that the Tigers give Skubal more win potential than the Pirates offer Skenes. Wins are still unpredictable, though, so Skubal could have 12 and Skenes 15 by season’s end… again, it’s a coinflip at the 1-spot.

It is worth noting that Paul Skenes easily has the best ERA in baseball the last two seasons (min. 100 IP) with a tiny 1.96 mark in 321 IP. Only Jacob deGrom (120!) tops his 116 Pitching+ (Skubal, Zack Wheeler, and Corbin Burnes are tied at 116) in that same time. In short, he’s amazing and if he’s your #1 SP, it’s perfectly justifiable.

All the talk of the “Sk Boys” as the unquestioned top 2 guys might be overlooking Garrett Crochet as a viable #1 in his own right. His 2024-25 combined numbers aren’t as strong because his ERA was relatively high for an ace in ’24 (3.58) but his 2.72 SIERA is the best of the trio as are his 33% K and 27% K-BB rates. He’s also the only one of them to deliver a 200+ IP season. Addtionally, the Red Sox were the best of these three teams last year and likely will be again in 2026. I didn’t expect this write-up to go this way but it’s a firm 3-way battle for the top spot. Taking Crochet is every bit as viable as the “Sk Boys”… maybe it’s time to start calling him “Skcrochet” so he’s firmly in the group!

I had Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the lock #4 after the regular season and after his amazing playoff run, that is now consensus. I wasn’t out on some super risky limb so I’ll chill on the back-patting, I was just surprised that it was being seen as a lock 3 and then wide open despite what we had just seen in 30-start season from Yamamoto. He did still only amass 174 IP (28th) and I’m left wondering if that’s about his cap or a step toward 200+.

It’s easy to see the Dodgers having no real incentive to push any starter so they have juice for October to do exactly what Yamamoto just did. Conversely, he was their first 30-start pitcher since Julio Urías in 2022 and both Urías and Walker Buehler in 2021 so maybe he is going to be the one steady workhorse while they massage the rest throughout the year. His pitches per gm went up from 90 to 99 in the second half followed by the exquisite playoff run that saw three counts at 105+ including the back-to-back CGs. Let’s plan for more of the same and be pleasantly surprised if the Dodgers let him in the upper reaches of pitches per game.

It was a huge breakthrough season for Cristopher Sánchez where both his excellent walk and homer rates held firm while adding 6 pts to his K%. We now have 483 IP of great work from Sánchez (3.00 ERA/1.13 WHIP/18% K-BB) and I think we could see a full season of his 2023 numbers: 3.44 ERA/1.05 WHIP/20% K-BB.

While Max Fried lacks the premium strikeout capability of his peers here in this tier, he makes up for it with good walk rates and a consistent penchant for limiting homers thanks to his groundball lean. His 0.65 HR9 is 4th in MLB since 2022 (min. 300 IP) thanks to a groundball heavy approach (54% GB is 9th). He did also have a career-best 95.8 mph fastball last year (93.9 career), too, and it’ll be interesting to see if he holds those gains in 2026.

Can Logan Gilbert’s 131-IP season be the final nail in the “safe innings” coffin? It’s fugazi, it’s a whazy. It’s a woozie. It’s fairy dust… no, that doesn’t mean I think some rookie has the same IP cap as a Gilbert or Logan Webb, etc… but rather that you’re deluding yourself in thinking that pitchers are inherently bankable. They all carry *extreme* injury risk. That’s no shade on Gilbert, either, as I fully believe in his talent. It was just the repeated refrain that he was a lock 30+ starts.

Draft Gilbert because he had a 5 pt. jump in K% to a career-best 32% thanks to his 3rd-ranked 16% SwStr rate. The 144 Stf+ on his splitter was far and away the best in baseball and he leaned on it more with a 20% usage rate. I’d also like to be clear that I’m not suggesting there is no value to Gilbert pitching 32-33 starts in all three seasons from 2022-24. It shows Seattle’s confidence in him and makes clear that they’ll let him go when healthy and upright, a right not afforded to all starters. My disconnect came with using Gilbert’s workload as the reason to take him over guys like deGrom and Crochet despite acknowledging that they’d almost certainly be better on a per-inning basis. In today’s lower inning landscape, I just want the most talented arms and I’ll let the innings play out.

Bryan Woo made it through the rotation 30 times, but he was injured late and unavailable for most of the playoffs. Health has been the only real hangup, well that and a bit of a homer issue. Pitchers who never walk anyone (5% career BB%) usually allow a few more longballs and given how hard he’s been to consistently hit (.246 BABIP, .208 AVG), some extra solo shots just haven’t hurt him. Betting on hit suppression can be dangerous so heed his 3.47 SIERA against that 2.92 ERA the last two years. The real key will be holding the strikeout gains (+6 pts to 27%).

It was an injury washout for Cole Ragans as he managed just 62 IP, but his skills were fantastic (30% K-BB) and neither the 64% LOB nor the .354 BABIP feel like his true skill level so I absolutely expect a performance closer to his 2.52 SIERA than 4.67 ERA.

Hunter Brown leveraged some small skill improvements and a tiny .262 BABIP into an ace season. His SIERA dropped from 3.74 to 3.39 thanks to a 3 pt. K% boost and a couple fewer walks (-0.6%). He will likely push closer to his career .299 BABIP but if it comes with a 18-20% K-BB rate, he can front a fantasy rotation.

I was steering clear of Hunter Greene last year and even shared concerns of a real downside season. I was of course dead wrong and despite his HR rate jumping back up to 1.3, his ERA moved all of 0.01 while his WHIP tumbled to a career-best 0.94, albeit in just 108 IP. He’s only reached 150 IP once, averaging just 124 IP over his four seasons, but he made the most of his short 2025 sample thanks to a sharp 3 pt. drop in BB% to 6%. Maintaining that will be key to surviving the homers, assuming he doesn’t improve that issue this year. There is legitimate #1 overall SP upside here as hopefully the 26-year old can stay fully healthy and deliver his first 30-start campaign.

Dangit, I fell for the timeline on George Kirby. The reports were positive and because I like him, I neglected to add the customary extra weeks to the timeline. Instead of being back 3-4 wks into the season, he debuted on May 22nd. From there, he had some sharp ups and downs thanks to 4 Duds (5+ ER) in 23 starts. He opened with two before ripping off 2.84 ERA and 22% K-BB in 76 IP. Then two 7 ER bombs in his next four ensured a 4.00+ ERA for the year despite his best efforts with a 2.95 ERA and 36% K-BB in his last four. I still think all the elements are there for a massive ace season from Kirby, combining his 2025 K% (26%) with 2023-24 WHIP (1.05) to deliver a career-best ERA… perhaps even sub-3.00!

We now have three straight seasons of at least 30 starts for Freddy Peralta with an average of 172 IP that peaked this year at just under 177. He has shown he can hold up over a full season multiple times now, but it does seem the Brewers are content to take the 5-and-dive and turn it over to their usually strong pen. It didn’t keep him from logging an NL-best 17 Wins and he’s reached 200 strikeouts in each of the three seasons, so the primary reasons you’d want to ding him for the lower volume are covered. Well, the strikeouts are covered… just because he won 17 this past season doesn’t mean he will do it again, but the point is that he isn’t destined to 10-12 Ws every year as a 5-and-dive. Jan. 22nd Update: Peralta was traded to the Mets in a huge deal, but it doesn’t really impact his ranking for me in a tangible way. Milwaukee was a great spot for him and so his Queens. He remains a stud!

It’s just so hard to know where to rank Shohei Ohtani as a starting pitcher-only without some insights on how much they plan to use him on the mound in 2026. Plus he’s a true 2-way asset at most outlets so you’re buying the bat with the pitching sprinkled on top. He was excellent when pitching and was allowed to throw 6 IP in 3 of his 4 postseason starts. As long as he’s a consistent 5-6 IP guy, he’s awesome and it becomes a really interesting choice each week of how to deploy him, especially if you land some extra hitting to where you’re less reliant on Ohtani’s dominance at the dish.

Joe Ryan has been walking the HR tightrope for his whole career, usually with flying colors as his 4.51 ERA in 2023 is the only real blemish on his record. This is why missing bats and limiting walks is so important. Despite the 9th worst HR9 (1.5), his 6th best K-BB (23%) guides him to a palatable 3.83 ERA and excellent 1.07 WHIP. There is ERA blowup potential, but bankable WHIP and Ks keep him ranked high.

I was so in on Jacob deGrom last year hoping that his late-season flourish in 2024 was a harbinger. Emphasis on hoping because I certainly didn’t know the 37-year old righty would take 30 turns and throw 173 IP. It’s awesome that it went so well, but I’m left with an agonizing feeling of essentially “cashing out” or staying bought in. I don’t think he collapses regardless of what happens as we generally expect the innings to be good, we just don’t know how many he’ll throw. A year older now and a rather disconcerting 1.4 HR9 which was masked over by the .194 AVG and 6% BB leave me a bit cautious about the rebuy.

Maybe Chris Sale is just an ace even at 37 years old. Sure, he only pitched 126 innings after his Cy Young win in 2024, but he was every bit as good. I don’t have any real concerns about his skills… draft him based on your tolerance for an older pitcher with some recent health issues.

I know it was only six starts, but I’m back in on Kyle Bradish! In fact, he only has 14 starts the last two years and yet he’s given us no reason to think he can’t get back to his 2023 output (2.83 ERA/1.04 WHIP) and possibly with much better skills, though I know we can’t expect his 26% K-BB to necessarily hold up for a full season, but even cracking 20% would be an improvement on 2023’s 19% mark.

A pair of ~90-IP seasons with an injury rehab season mixed in between is all we’ve seen from Eury Pérez and yet he’s regularly going as a Top 25 starter. Miami took time ramping him back up from TJ with a month of sub-5 IP starts in June before letting him go at least 5 IP in 9 of his next 10. Back-to-back Duds down the stretch (12 ER in 4.7 IP) all but locked a >4.00 ERA (4.25 in 95 IP) while his WHIP (1.05) and K-BB (19%) were both excellent. He even racked up 7 Ws in those final 16 starts.

He leans on the fastball-slider combo 83% of the time but he does run a legitimate 4-pitch arsenal against lefties with a 13% curve and 11% changeup added to the mix. As such, he’s been better against lefties in his short career with 84-point platoon split. He’s not a completely finished product yet as both his 8% BB and 1.3 HR9 rates could use work but even just 140-150 IP of the Pérez we’ve seen is still very valuable.

Drew Rasmussen was essentially a 5-and-dive pitcher this year with 150 IP in 31 starts, going more than 5 IP just 11x and never topping 6 IP. His pitches/start jumped 4 to 77 in the second half but that only moves him from last to 2nd-to-last so we just have to be comfortable with a 150-inning cap. If the Rays surprise us and give him 80-85 pitches/start, great… but don’t hold your breath. The downside with that volume is the potential impact on wins. He can’t even get one if he doesn’t go 5 IP, of course, and then has to hope his bullpen holds for 3-4 IP when he does leave with a lead. You’re paying for impact ratios here and his are consistently good enough to make a major impact even without qualifying for the ERA title.

We all know the deal with Tyler Glasnow. He’s entering his age-32 season with just 3 seasons over 100 innings and a max of 134. You’re buying 90 elite innings and taking anything else as a bonus. Since 2021, he has a 3.24 ERA/1.01 WHIP/24% K-BB in ~88 IP/season and that includes a 7-inning flameout in 2022. Only Strider & Sale top him in K-BB rate during that run (min. 400 IP), tied at 25%.

After missing all of 2024 to shoulder surgery, Brandon Woodruff picked up right where he left off with a sharp 12-start run. His 27% K-BB was the best we’ve seen from him, but it was still just 65 IP so I’ll lean on his 23% career mark for a 2026 outlook. We have seen homers bubble up in his last 2 samples (~65 IP in both 2023 and 2025) at 1.2 and he also lost 3 mph off his fastball to 93.1 mph. To compensate, he used it a career-low 31% while incorporating a new cutter that he used 16% of the time, including a surge to 24% in his final 4 starts. If his K% hadn’t gone up (SwStr% held firm), I’d be more concerned about the velo drop but the severe arsenal shift also shows that he’s isn’t just trying to push through with a limping heater. I shifted him to the PIM tier as I wonder if Milwaukee will aim to limit him and save some juice for October given his lengthy injury history.

Is there value in pushing for another 150+ IP season or aim for 125ish and take the reins off in October? A third of the Top 30 SPs had fewer than 150 IP last year so while an IP mgmt program would make him tougher to manage in-season, it simply does not preclude from being a premium starter in today’s game. I will likely reiterate this point multiple times throughout these profiles because I know people jump around and don’t always read every single entry (which I totally understand, especially with this post-and-update structure that we run throughout the winter).

It’s always prudent to bake in some missed time for Nathan Eovaldi, especially as he enters his age-36 season. Thankfully, the market always accounts for his lower IP counts in his draft price making him a worthy draft pick if you’re OK with the in-season management that is sure to follow. Any pitcher can get hurt, of course, but Eovaldi’s 135 IP avg. per season in 12 years (discounting his 2011 brief debut and obviously 2020) makes clear that penciling him in for even 150 is wishcasting a bit. I am confident that the innings we do get will be good as we’ve seen a 3.42 ERA/1.11 WHIP from him in 785 IP since 2020.

Pitchers like Blake Snell are usually quite divisive in the fantasy world. You’re either all in or all out… rarely do I see fence straddlers with him. He has just 104 and 61 IP the last two years but then of course two Cy Youngs the two times he managed 180+ so the upside is amazingly rich. And it’s not like the partial seasons are all downside. He had a 2.83 ERA/1.13 WHIP/22% K-BB in those 165 IP and you get to replace him, so his numbers plus the fill-in(s) is what you’re getting out of the draft slot. Feb. 24th Update:His shoulder issues are lingering to the point of possibly not being ready for Opening Day. I don’t mind getting him in a league with IL slots as the recent news has nearly doubled his ADP from the early-70s to the 130s and I still think he will be great when he pitches. I can revisit again if/when we get a clearer timeline, but despite being a huge fan of his game, he’s off my board in NFBC waiver formats as they have no designated IL spots.

I jumped back on the Shane Bieber train much quicker than expected as I originally thought he might just use 2025 as a tune-up for a real push in 2026. Instead, he was excellent immediately upon returning with 7 strong starts followed by nearly 20 more quality postseason innings. The budding HR issue brings some ERA risk if it’s here to stay, but he shouldn’t carry a 1.7 all year (career 1.0 in 883 IP).

Logan Webb is the quintessential workhorse of this era, topping the NL each of the last three seasons and all of baseball in two of them. Drop back to 2021 and his 968 IP far eclipse Kevin Gausman’s 926 for most in baseball. Over the last few years I’ve used Webb’s or Framber Valdez’s profile to compare them as the righty-lefty versions of each other and tops among an ever-dwindling list of high workload arms. Webb’s WHIP has run high at 1.23 the last two seasons after a 1.11 from 2021-23 and this despite adding Willy Adames to Matt Chapman for the left side of infield. It’s not like all groundballs go over there and the range-challenged duo of Tyler Fitzgerald and Casey Schmidt manning 2B didn’t help much on the right side. He’s never been a BABIP stud so even if Chap/Adames go off and they improve the left side, I doubt we see even a sub-.290 BABIP barring a change in approach or just some flat out good luck. At least last year’s WHIP jump was soothed by a 5-pt jump in K% up to 26% – his best mark since 2021 (I’ve been using em dashes well before stupid AI but definitely notice any time I use one!).

He did raise his SwStr% 2 points to 10.7% and he made the absolute most of it. There is a shorthand for expected K% to be around ~2x their SwStr% with an upper limit around 2.5x and the only reason I included the decimal on that 10.7% mark for Webb is to show how close he was to that 2.5 upper end with his 26.2% K%. Pitchers can obviously overachieve their SwStr% beyond 2.5x in small samples, but that 2-2.5x range holds up really well in larger samples. Among the 127 pitchers with at least 100 IP last year, only Dustin May reached 2.6 and you can put Seth Lugo in there, too, after rounding but for the Technical Tommies out there, he was at 2.55. All that to say, I doubt Webb clocks another 26% without adding to his SwStr% and nothing in his profile points me toward further growth there. If he brings the WHIP below 1.20, it should be able to cancel out the impact of any lost of strikeouts in terms of his overall value. The prudent move is to plan for the same WHIP and fewer Ks.

Nick Pivetta wasn’t the best fit for the Per Inning Monsters category so I moved him here. While he is just 54th in IP since 2023, he vaults to 16th when we expand back to 2021 with 805 IP and he’s also coming off a career-high 182. The back-to-back 140-something seasons in 2023-24 also weren’t health-related so 170+ is always on the table if he’s good enough to take 30+ turns (which he’s done 4x in his career).

His career-long HR issue was managed for the first time ever, dropping to a career-best 1.1 HR9 thanks to a 5-point dip in HR/FB rate, down to 10%. He will likely push back toward his 1.5/15% career marks so plan for some ERA regression while enjoying his K%/WHIP foundation (8th in both since 2023, min. 400 IP). I’d be remiss to gloss over the sparkling .235 BABIP (v. his .292 career mark) which brings some WHIP regression concern though I think we can live with a backslide to his 2023-24 level of 1.12. I was a hater until late in the 2025 draft season and now I’m in even at his new premium price tag.

Framber Valdez is the best arm remaining on the market and arguably the best overall, depending on how you feel about Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai, or maybe even Michael King. He happened to have his worst ERA since 2019 and WHIP since 2021 which is less than ideal heading into free agency and then there was the potential intentional cross-up with his rookie catcher, though it’d be impossible to say how much negative impact that would have on his free agency without teams coming out and saying so. It’s more likely that teams will be wondering if he can hold up into his 30s. He’s known as a workhorse as only Logan Webb (820) has more innings since 2022 than Framber’s 768 and the surface results are there with the 7th-best ERA in that time (min. 500 IP yielding 59 SPs) but his 16% K-BB is just 29th and 1.16 WHIP is 23rd. I’ll dive back in when he signs, but hopefully he goes somewhere with a strong infield defense as his 60% GB rate is tops among that sample 59 SP sample since 2022.

Feb. 5th Update: WOW, I did not expect the update to be Framber signing with the Tigers! What a stunner!! Nothing really changes from a value perspective as the Tigers are a quality team in a solid park for pitchers so if you liked him before the signing, you still should after this, but the infield is no doubt worse as no one raises to the level of Jeremy Pena. A few extra hits because of the defense, but maybe a couple fewer HRs because of the park still results in a good year. His ADP could rise as there’s always a measure of uncertainty when someone is a free agent, but I can’t see it surging.

I usually like to buy the dip on Dylan Cease, betting that his consistently strong core skills (20% K-BB in ’25; 19% career) will bring more good than bad as he battles the volatility of things both in (pitch command) and out (BABIP) of his control. With three straight years of a not-so-nice 69% LOB rate, it might start looking like a problem specific to Cease and his effectiveness with runners on but his K-BB rate drops just a point to 18% in the L3 years once facing traffic while his BABIP surges 40 points to .331, including an insane .376 in 2025. He may in fact be doing something out of the stretch that causes this problem but why doesn’t it show up at all in his other skills?

As for the dip, the market isn’t budging. After rebounding from an equally rough season in 2023, the market believes the newest Blue Jay starter will rebound toward something in line with the 3.58 SIERA we saw amidst his 4.55 ERA. The tough part with Cease is that when it goes south, he’s usually slamming both ratios so the Ks have to be worth it. He has also made 32-33 starts for five straight seasons which gets spun both ways these days. One side sees the previous volume as an encouraging sign for more, but now I’ve started to see the heavy workloads get pushed back on a starter, suggesting that every pitcher is an injury timebomb that will eventually go off regardless of their health history. The truth is that neither is the definitive way to look at it because every pitcher is different (I know, groundbreaking…). While I have been adamant on not using previous workloads as too strong an indicator of future volume, I haven’t gone so far that I now see Ceases’s health stability as a negative. I’m likely passing this year if he’s going to carry a Top 20 SP price.

Sandy Alcantara’s early season glimmers of hope were routinely cut down by a Dud as he suffered through 10 of ’em, eight of which came in the first half. He found his form in the second half, putting together a 3.35 ERA/1.05 WHIP in 84 IP. His 15% K-BB was nearly double the 8% he had in the first half and not too far off the 17% mark we saw in 2021-23 before his TJ. His K% will be used against him but his volume bridges the gap as we saw in 2021-23 when he finished 63rd in K% (23%) but 12th in Ks (559). He will once again be among the top trade candidates if the Marlins don’t succeed this year so plan accordingly if you worry about traded guys.

Sonny Gray is headed to Boston after a winter trade, looking to rebound from a modest 4.28 ERA/1.23 WHIP in 2025. His 22% K-BB couldn’t stop the bleeding induced by a .329 BABIP and 1.3 HR9. Fenway and Busch are similarly pitcher-friendly on homers so the new park shouldn’t inflate that issue. I’ll be curious to see what Boston has in store for Gray because it’s not like he’s broken, he’s bringing plenty to work with and now has three straight years of at least 166 IP including 2 over 180. Pay for a high-3.00s ERA with a good WHIP if he does in fact improve that BABIP which is a fair bet (1.12 WHIP, .293 BABIP in 2022-24).

The vagaries of BABIP become clear when examining Kevin Gausman’s profile. He’s never been Mr. Hit Suppression save his 2021 dream season, but things went completely sideways the very next year – his first with Toronto – as his BABIP soared 89 pts to a league-worst for qualified pitchers of .363 (teammate José Berríos was 2nd worst at .328). A 42-pt improvement in 2023 only moved him from worst to 2nd worst (new teammate Dylan Cease was worst at .330). Gausman was good in both seasons, posting a palatable 3.35 ERA/1.24 WHIP combo in ’22 and then improving both to 3.16/1.18 in ’23. The key was his 24% K-BB that finished behind only Spencer Strider and tied with Shohei Ohtani among 101 SPs (min. 220 IP). That figure has subsequently cratered to 16% the last two seasons (42nd among 100 SP, same 220 IP min.) which is part of why his sharply improved BABIP (.271) hasn’t shown up in his 3.71 ERA. Now 35, he’s a fair bet for a 4.00+ ERA with his upside tied to improving his K% or dropping another elite WHIP like we saw in 2025 (1.06). The wide range of outcomes plus the elevated age have me bumping him down the list a bit.

While Zack Wheeler did get the lesser of the two thoracic outlet syndrome procedures (6-8 mo. recovery from mid-Aug.), TOS is never good so he is a major wildcard for winter drafters. A Top 35 ranking is an admittedly rosy outlook and though it is in line with the current ADP, I know that I personally won’t be drafting him until the spring – if at all. Obviously the price will rise if he’s healthy in Spring Training, but I’d rather pay a confident SP20 than a nervous SP30 especially when dealing with TOS. I’ll revisit in Spring as we get more information about his recovery. Feb. 11th Update: We got some early news and it’s probably not unexpected to hear he likely won’t be ready for Opening Day, though he’s hoping it’s not too far beyond that. I am moving him down a bit but only because 30 was just a little too high in the first place, but this news isn’t the driver. I’m going to put him around 45 and we’ll revisit again either after 4-5 starts or if we get a major update prompting something before that.

Luis Castillo has transitioned into the “unc” portion of his career — which, by the way, is a shortened version of “uncle” and a term of endearment for someone getting an older but has recently been bastardized into the next “ok, boomer” by dipshits… it is not nor has it ever been short for “uncool” — sorry, where were we… Castillo, unc, got it. So at age-33, he’s rounding into his veteran form as a good-not-elite innings eater. After his career year in 2022 (2.99 ERA/1.08 WHIP), he’s lived in a tight ERA/WHIP band for three years, posting a composite 3.50/1.15 in 553 IP (4th most since 2023), but the declining velo and K-BB are likely behind some of the concerns for him coming into 2026. He’s lost 2 mph and 4 pts of K-BB since 2022 thuogh it’s worth mentioned that he remains above average in both. The home/road splits have grown more prominent in the last two seasons and while I would stop short of a universal road benching, perhaps skipping some of the tougher roadies in shallower formats makes some sense.

Moving Carlos Rodón in light of news that he is likely to appear in the Grapefruit League with an expected start of late-April/early-May. Plan for Memorial Day and draft accordingly. Four months of a healthy Rodón is still plenty valauble in a lot of formats. I’ll revisit him in March when we see how things look in spring.

Well look who’s back in Arizona! Zac Gallen returns on a 1-year, $22-million dollar deal, the exact amount he’d have gotten had he accepted the qualifying offer back in November. As a charter member of the Gallen Gals (and Boyd Boyz), I have a hard time quitting him (or Boyd for that matter) and not just because of these very awesome and very real clubs, but because both are remarkably talented arms. Let’s put Boyd to the side as he’s coming off a great year, so the only real parallel with Gallen is the alliterative fanclub name, but Gallen is coming off his worst season ever thanks in large part to nearly 2x’ing his HR9 to 1.5 (49th of 52 qualified SPs). He suffered through 10 (!) Duds last year, allowing at least one homer in nine of ’em and multiple homers in six.

It wasn’t all bad, though. Let’s start with the fact that he threw 192 innings, giving him three full seasons in the last four and still 148 IP in the other. This fact paired with legitimate second half improvement caused me to move Gallen into the Workhorses tier and get a little ranking boost as I found myself comfortable with his price in my drafts over the weekend despite getting sniped before I could snag him. Getting in and battle testing rankings can be so valuable to finding out how really feel about a pitcher when those 60 seconds are rapidly ticking down in the draft room. I realized I still have some trust left for Gallen thanks to his 3.88 ERA/1.11 WHIP/18% K-BB over the final three months of the season. Nothing new to figure out heading back to Arizona and a now tidy little discount if you want to reinvest. He might not fully return to form, but for a post-200 pick, I don’t mind placing a modest bet on the 2H rebound & career-long track record.

Jesús Luzardo is another mover out of the Per Inning Monster tier as he’s been at or near 180 IP in 2 of the last 3 seasons. He might have had a career season if not for back-to-back horrendous starts two months into the season. The 20 ER v. MIL & TOR stained his ERA, running it from 2.15 to 4.46 in the span of a week, before he shaved it back down thanks to a sharp stretch run. He went fewer than 6 IP just once in his L11 starts, collecting 58 Ks in the last six.

All the elements are there for a Top 10 season, but Luzardo will likely have to find a way to avoid these Super Duds to get there. Everyone has a few bad starts each year, it’s these 7+ ER meltdowns that keep him from that upper crust of SPs. He has 5 Super Duds since 2023, tied for 4th most (21 total guys w/at least 5) despite only pitching 66 IP in 2024. There isn’t really a skill to address for this so I think we just bet on a strong armed 28-year old with a 20% K-BB since 2022 (10th, min. 500 IP) and hope he finally just prevents his bad starts from going completely haywire.

The shift back to the Tropicana Stadium has me even more interested in Ryan Pepiot and his rotation mates this year. Stienbrenner Field in Tampa Bay was definitely better (102 Park Factor) for hitters than the Trop (97 in 2023-24) and Pepiot dodged the full brunt of it by posting a 3.41 ERA despite a 1.7 HR9 in 16 home starts. The move back to The Trop will likely leave that bill unpaid as he has a 1.1 HR9 in 14 starts there. He only needs some work around the edges to be strong #2 starter – cut down the multi-homer games and/or shave the walks a bit. I’d also take a rinse-and-repeat of his 2025 season.

A realigned pitch mix helped spur Nick Lodolo’s best season yet, though he still fell shy of a full season clocking a career-high 157 IP. He cut his 4-seamer usage (-14 to 29%) for increased changeup (+6 to 22%) and sinker (+7 to 20%) usage while the curveball continued to lead the charge (29%). The biggest improvement from these changes was a career best 5% BB (8% career coming into ’25). His homers spiked to 1.3, but an 81% LOB rate helped offset the damage.

He has shown a penchant for stranding runners with an 80%+ in his three of his four seasons, but the fourth was a 68% mark which helps show why it’s hard to have a LOB% skill. A blister ate up most of August and while that’s not the biggest deal – especially in his litany of IL stints – it was also his second IL-inducing blister (2024). Lodolo’s talent is evident and rich enough to deliver a Top 10-15 SP season while also carrying enough risk to deliver a maddening mid-4.00s ERA (injuries, HRs, park, LOB% variance), but having a clear downside doesn’t make you undraftable and his hard skills outweigh the soft factors threatening his upside.

Michael King was backing up his breakout 2024 before shoulder inflammation ate up the heart of his season, sidelining him from mid-May to mid-August, only to be felled by a knee injury after one start which ate up another month. He did come back for 4 Sept. starts – a couple gems, a Dud, and what seemed like a purposely shortened final start of the year (2.7 IP, 49 pitches). He reupped with SD on a 3-year flex contract so I think we’ll see something in line with his last two seasons. He has outrun his ERA indicators, posting a 3.10 against a 3.73 SIERA so it would be prudent to plan for more of a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA with a low-1.20s WHIP, plenty of Ks, and consistent W opportunities as part of a good team.

There’s a bit of Reynaldo López vibe to Trevor Rogers in that his shocking rebirth has merit but no one is predicting a full repeat. Obviously, ReyLo’s encore never launched as he got injured and missed the season, let’s hope Rogers diverges from the comparison with another 100+ inning season and perhaps even a new career high (133 in 2021). His .226 BABIP and 84% LOB% were both insane, but that’s how you get a 1.81 ERA so saying they will regress is simply stating a fact. The question is where does he go and as long as he’s the 17-20% K-BB guy we’ve seen in his good season, look for a mid-3.00s/low-1.20s WHIP.

Outside of 2023 when he could only string 4-5 good starts together a couple times, Ranger Suárez is usually good for three elements in a season: an elite 10-12 start run, a few Duds, and an IL stint. I’ll dive in deeper when he signs somewhere.

Jan. 20th Update: Suárez moves from one hitter’s haven to another, though this one plays a bit worse to his strengths. As a groundball guy, he navigated Philly well by suppressing homers despite the 114 HR factor. It played at a flat 100 for hits overall, but now he shifts to the 2B mecca in Fenway that plays 2nd to only Coors in hits at 107. Perhaps he will allow even fewer homers at home, moving from the 4th-best HR park to 23rd. I’m not sure it will have a major impact on his bottom line, it might just change his path to getting there and I’d still project a high-3.00s to low-4.00s ERA with ~1.25 WHIP.

Investing in Dodgers starters can be frought with uncertainty given how they manage arms throughout the year. Even at the top end, we have to be concerned that LAD will aggressively manage their arms with October in mind. But in today’s world of lower IP totals, give me the premium talent and we’ll see where the innings land. That’s why I’m willing to take the plunge on Emmet Sheehan after a beautiful 73-inning debut last year (23% K-BB, 3.20 SIERA). I’m under no delusions that they’ll just run him unencumbered for 30+ starts, but I’m reminded of Gavin Stone leading the team with 140 IP in 2024. While I’m not saying Sheehan will also lead the team, I think 125-140 IP season is possible after 100 total IP last year.

Cade Horton’s excellent rookie season stands out because he was able to deliver a 2.67 ERA/1.08 WHIP despite a below-average 13% K-BB (14% is avg). Predictably, it was success in the three key elements we often shorthand as “luck” that drove his season: .258 BABIP, 78% LOB, and 7% HR/FB all of which far eclipses league averages of .288, 73%, and 12%. There will likely be regression across the board, but too much focus there ignores what he did well and what he has to build upon for 2026. He nearly halved his BB% from 12% at AAA to 7% in 118 MLB innings. The tradeoff was less dominance for more control as he had just a 20% K rate, but it was a skill tradeoff, not just degradation of the strikeouts. With a 96-mph heater and nasty sweeper against righties that he shifts to a changeup/curveball combo against lefties, this is an arsenal that delivered a 31% K rate in 152 MiLB innings. Tuning up the K% to something in the 23-25% range would be a great way to offset his “luck” profile pushing closer to league average. I’m also not sure the BABIP regresses a ton as he’s always been tough to square up, with a 6.0 H/9 in 90 IP at Double- and Triple-A since 2024. The market isn’t overrating him as SP55 in early-March Rotowire OCs (12-team, 5x5s w/waivers), a spot where he doesn’t even have to improve to deliver on that draft price.

In one of the shocks of the offseason, the Astros inked Tatsuya Imai to a 3-year flex contract (hat-tip Joe Sheehan who came up with this good name for these opt-out laden contracts) that will likely just be a 1-year deal barring a complete flameout. Both the landing spot and shorter term drove the surprise with this move as Houston appeared to be starting more of a rebuild phase while many contract guesses for Imai were in the 4-5 year range for the 28-year old. A mid-90s heater and nasty slider highlight his deep arsenal that delivered a 27% K (3rd in NPB) the last two seasons and a sparkling 1.92 ERA in 2025. He has also improved his BB% every year since 2020, down to a solid 7% this year. It’s his only pro season under 10% (technicallyyyy 2024 as well at 9.8%, but c’mon…) so if the 2025 gains aren’t real, that could be a impediment to his early success in MLB.

Imai’s size is also of some concern. He’s listed 5’11 meaning he’s closer to 5’8 because if you were truly 5’11, you’d just list 6′. Anyway, that doesn’t preclude Imai from success, but he also weighs about 155. Sonny Gray is really the only model for sub-6′ righty success right now and he’s got 40 lbs. on Imai. Framber is 5’11, but he’s a lefty even thicker than Gray so his durability isn’t questioned (and also well-proven the last several years). Imai did reach 173 and 163 IP the last two seasons, but that’s on the once-a-week schedule of the NPB. Even if he is going to be a lower IP guy, this is the right era to still thrive despite that. I will mention it across many profiles in this piece, but you simply don’t need a massive IP count to put up a big season. You still need to collect enough innings from your entire team to compete in Ws and Ks so you can’t have all sub-130 IP guys, but a few is fine, especially if have IL spots and can better hold them through injuries while getting replacement production.

As for Imai in Houston, I don’t have any inherent issues with it. They clearly want to keep the competition window open with this move so his Win potential should be fine as long as he’s clocking 5+ IP. He showed strong HR suppression in Japan, slotting 13th in HR9 since 2019 (0.65) and up to 7th the last two seasons (0.48), but if he loses some effectiveness on that slider will it show in the form of Crawford Boxes homers? This shouldn’t be anything like the Shota Imanaga situation, though, as he had the 4th worst HR9 in NPB the three seasons before coming so even some regression of Imai’s NPB homers shouldn’t surge that high. His draft price will determine a lot of my interest, he’s currently around SP45 as of early-January, a price I’d be willing to pay, but that is established before his signing. Most free agents see their ADP rise once signed and then there’s further helium risk as more fantasy managers dive into Imai and learn of his substantial upside.

Gavin Williams battled last year… mostly his own command, but he evolved as the season wore on and reeled off a fantastic 20-start to outrun some early season woes: 2.50 ERA/1.13 WHIP/13% K-BB. The first part of that run felt suspect as the walks remained prominent, notching at least 2 per game in the first 8 starts. The final 12-start is how Williams added a boatload of fantasy managers to his bandwagon for 2026: 2.18/1.06/18% with the key change being his 9% BB. While still above the league average (8%), he can make it work when he’s running up-20%s K rates. If he recapture hs 103 LOC+ from 2023-24 and combine it with the 103 STF+, there’s another level here.

The market is blazing hot (SP27, pick 98 overall) on Nolan McLean and frankly, I get it. Part of his rise underscores how quickly we move from proven studs in the SP pool as it’s not like he is leapfrogging a bunch of guys with similar talent and years of experience. The 24-year old righty leveraged a deep arsenal to put up a 22% K-BB in 48 IP. If you look at the composite usage rates, he has 4 “real” pitches and a pair of show-me pitches (<10% usage) but that’s why it’s worth looking at the usage by splits. In McLean’s case it shows that lefties are getting a legitimate 6-pitch arsenal, all ranging from 12%-21% usage, and then the changeup and cutter go by the wayside versus righties. Simply put, more pitches increase his margin for error. That doesn’t mean someone with fewer than 50 career IP can’t flop but he has a tighter range in comparison to someone like Chase Burns. Either can be Top 10 guys at their best, but with only two pitches (in addition to the standard issues of being inexperienced), Burns has more non-injury bottom out potential than McLean.

Powered by nasty stuff (112 STF+), Cam Schlittler’s debut impressed on the surface with a 2.96 ERA and when you look at deeper at his core skills: 98 mph fastball, 17% K-BB, 3 distinct pitches for both righties and lefties. He stamped his season with a strong postseason that included a gem against Boston (8 IP/0 ER/12 Ks) and another solid start against the AL Champion Blue Jays (6.3 IP/2 ER/2 K). His 0 BB across the pair might’ve been the most impressive part given his 10% BB during the regular season (73 IP) and 9% at Triple-A (24 IP). Control development will be the key driver behind his season, if he can work at 8% or lower then we could see a huge season; 9% or more and then his 4.00 ERA/1.25 WHIP projections are much more in play. The upside is worth going after.

We saw each end of the spectrum with Jacob Misiorowski during his debut: 2.72 ERA/0.97 WHIP/26% K-BB in first 33 IP in MLB but then a 6.15/1.55/16% in his final 33. I just don’t know if Miz will develop enough control to fully breakout this year and I’d bet against it all coming together this year, but his upside is so rich that I understand taking the shot. When you throw 99 mph and you’re fanning 30% of the batters you’re facing, you greatly increase your margin for error even if your control is wonky. He has plenty of useful outcomes between his high and low end but I would draft some WHIP cushion around him since many of the non-elite outcomes include >1.25 WHIP.

Well, here we go again. The parallels between Chase Burns and Hunter Greene are obvious: live-armed righties who are heavy on stuff, light on control and arsenal depth. Burns might be able to develop a bit quicker than Greene if he can keep the homers down. Greene opened with a 1.6 HR9 in his first two seasons (238 IP). Burns had a sparkling 0.68 HR9 in the minors while running a reasonable 1.0 during his MLB debut. Burns is a heavy flyball guy like Greene, though, so we need more work from him to see how well he’ll hold up.

On the arsenal side, Greene has honed a splitter into a legit third offering these days, but he was fastball-slider early on with a show-me changeup (<10% usage) which is exactly where Burns is at now with a 6% changeup. The fastball-slider combo is fantastic and helped him to four 10-K games in his eight starts. His margin for error is lessened with just two pitches and we saw that with a pair of Duds. It’s a classic risk-reward bet here. Your risk assessment might not want to use pick-115 on someone with such a wide range of outcomes because of the severe downside. Others who do like him see the risk as worth it because the upside is a Top 10 SP and it’s not like the band of pitchers around him is laced with stability: Nolan McLean, Spencer Strider, Brandon Woodruff, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Glasnow. You’re building a portfolio with your pitching staff and you don’t want all of your guys to be low-ceiling/high-floor “bankable” guys (especially because all pitchers break) any more than you’d want all Burns/Glasnow types.

Rough 2025 for Bryce Miller, no two ways around it. Injuries ravaged him throughout and the performance was wobbly when he was pitching, but he finished the season healthy pitching pretty well in the playoffs (1.01 WHIP though just 9 Ks & 5 BB in 14 IP). That gives me encouragement to buy the dip on Miller for 2026. He still has work to do against lefties but after starting his career as a 2-pitch guy, he has expanded arsenal to give him several looks against both sides. Lefties get both of his distinct fastballs (4-seam/sinker) along with the splitter (14%) and slider (11%). That didn’t stop them from a 6% HR rate against him, though (league avg. 3%). He showed he could tame them in 2024 and I don’t think that talent is gone for the 27-year old righty. Mar. 3rd Update: Miller is dealing with left side inflammation that required a PRP injection and a week shutdown. I’m only dropping him a little bit right now as we wait for an update and I’m open to buying the discount. He’s dropped from 231 before the injury to 270 since it was announced with the max up to 294. That puts him in league with guys like Cody Ponce, Merrill Kelly, Sean Manaea, and Bailey Ober among others who have intrigue but their own wart(s). There’s risk, but he’s priced well enough for me to take it on as of early-March.

In fairness to Spencer Strider, he has shown enough to be a bankable frontliner, it was just back in 2022-23. Do we give him a pass for the bumpy 2025 as standard TJ returner issues or is he riding more of a tightrope than we might want to believe? The primary issues are in line with the struggles guys face in their first year back (elevated BB%, HR9), but the sharp dip in strikeouts to just 24% (career 33%) is concerning especially with the corresponding velo and SwStr% drops. It feels like that fastball has to be in the upper-90s if he is going to survive as a essentially 2-pitch guy (9% curve, 5% change). If he’s 97+ mph in Spring Training, I might be open to jumping in, but otherwise it’s a comfortable pass for me.

Andrew Abbott did add 5 pts to his K-BB, up to 16% but I still think there was plenty of “run-hot” in his 2.87 ERA. All ERA indicators point to something more in the upper-3.00s to low-4.00s range and that feels like the right range. The market is much sharper on this player class in the last several years with Seth Lugo being the posterboy last year. Great American Ballpark also shrinks a pitcher’s margin for error, though Abbott has bedeviled the HR haven with a 3.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP there in 214 IP. The question is – do you believe in it? With the range we’ve seen in his three MLB seasons, he makes sense for a simple average to get your ERA/WHIP expectations as something around his 3.42 ERA/1.24 WHIP career marks feel reasonable.

In my heart, Shane Smith was my lone successful Bold Prediction last year, but since it was that he would lead the White Sox in SVs, it wasn’t an actual win. The Rule 5 standout caught my eye in Spring Training and went on to have a fantastic rookie season. I actually played him wrong in one of my leagues and quit too early. To his credit, he rebounded from his rookie wall and closed strong, check out these three slices of his season: 2.38 ERA/1.17 WHIP in first 13 then a 4-start meltdown heading into the break with an 11.44/1.82 during which I cashed out only to see him finish with a 3.17/1.04 that included his best skills of the season (18% K-BB). A sprained ankled gave him a 3-week respite out of the All-Star break and it might’ve been exactly the recharge time he needed to finish so strongly. Fastball dominance drove the stretch run success which is excellent but I do wonder where his strikeouts go if none of his secondaries emerge as a whiff offering. In the clear light of day, well after the shine of 2025 has worn off, Smith had to come down the list a good bit.

Last year showed why it was so hard for Edward Cabrera’s supporters to quit him despite all the injuries and four straight seasons of sub-100 IP totals. He had the big strikeout upside and if he could just stay healthy… and he finally did, well at least for his standards. He opened the season with a blister that delayed him a couple weeks and then a September elbow sprain cost him another three weeks, but he put up a career best 138 IP with a 3.53 ERA/1.23 WHIP/18% K-BB. He also finished the season on the mound, returning for two starts after the elbow. Now part of the Cubs, he’s looking to build upon his breakout season and it still comes down to health above all. From there, holding those BB% gains will also be key. His 8% mark last year was easily a career best and he had a correspoinding LOC+ improvement (+6 pts to 101) to back up the gains, but a career 12% BB and 97 LOC+ can’t be ignored. That said, he’s priced in a range where taking on his risk makes sense if he’s your guy as he goes around other high-upside injury risks like Shane McClanahan, Joe Musgrove, and Kris Bubic.

Tanner Bibeee is a good lesson in the range of outcomes for a player. He no doubt disappointed against expectations with a 4.24 ERA/1.23 WHIP combo after entering the season at 3.25/1.14 for his career, but when you enter the year with a 3.85 SIERA, a low-4.00s ERA is not only on the table but has a decently high chance of coming to fruition. The margins that led to a full run of ERA being added to his ledger were pretty small. Best I can tell, he was only a bit worse, particularly in a handful of bad starts. It just felt more like a collapse.

Five Duds last year after four total coming into 2025 goes a long toward explaining the difference for Bibee and while four did come on the road, I’m reluctant to see that as any sort of driving force because he maintained a 14% K-BB home and away. Now that 14% was a far cry from his 20% in 2024 but just a couple clicks from his 16% rookie performance which yielded his best ERA yet so while that drop didn’t help, it’s probably a more reasonable expectation than the 20%. The toughest part is that we paid for a more bankable low-to-mid 3.00s ERA and got the 4.24, but now his price point has lowered to a point where another 4.00+ won’t come as such a surprise while still holding a really good chance to be in the mid-to-high 3.00s.

Can the Texas Rangers fix MacKenzie Gore’s BABIP issue? That is his primary issue and I don’t think it’s all bad luck. Yes, pitchers lack total control over the ball once it leaves their hand and the defense behind them adds more volatility to what happens with balls in play, but it appears to be more than that with Gore. His career .324 BABIP is second to only Patrick Corbin since 2022 (min. 500 IP) and the key reason I lay a decent bit of it as his feet is that his line drive rate (LD%) is also second highest at 23%, this time trailing only Jack Flaherty. I have a hard time believing it’s just bad luck that he’s getting pieced up that much all the time. The Nats awful middle infield defense definitely made it worse with his shortstops being 29th in DRS and 2B not much better at 27th.

The move to Texas alone should help that as Corey Seager/Josh Smith is easily the best combo he’s ever had behind him (imagine if Semien was still there!). I was a semi-fade on Gore before the trade, but I’m willing to go for him one more season here to see if Texas can mold Gore into the quality lefty I truly believe he can be… something like a mid-3.00s ERA, mid-1.20s WHIP (let’s be realistic, he’s a 1.40 career), and 200+ Ks if things really come together.

I haven’t been the biggest Shane Baz fan the last few years, concerned that he’s been more hype than production, but I’m not entirely blind to what draws other fantasy managers to him. Electric stuff with plenty of swing-and-miss have kept the hype flowing as he regularly appears close to a legit breakout. It might’ve fully come to fruition last year had they not been stuck in Steinbrenner Field, where he allowed a 5.90 ERA/1.46 WHIP in 82 IP thanks in large part to 18 HRs! He was much sharper on the road with a 3.86/1.21 combo and just eight homers (0.86 v. 2.0 at home). New home ballpark in Baltimore should help him against righties (127 v. 108 Park Factor) who ripped 17 of the 26 he allowed last year, but is he just going to give it back against lefties as Camden is a lefty homer haven (135 last yr, 127 L3 yrs)?

I had it my head that Brayan Bello had a standout second half. I think I was remembering his 2024 which was really good after a tough first half. To be fair to him, his July-August run: 2.57 ERA/0.97 WHIP was nice, but a tough September spoiled things a bit as 12 BB played a big role in his 5.40 ERA over 25 IP. Of course, margin for error really shrinks when you’re running a 9% K-BB (48th of 52 qualified SPs). We can’t be terribly surprised by such a low mark, either, when he was running a 13% career mark coming into 2025. The Red Sox did pay him which likely gives him the first shot in the rotation, but I’m not sure how much they’ll let their prominent prospects marinate if Bello’s running a mid-4.00s ERA in line his SIERA from last year. He was greatly overranked initially so the big drop is simply me waking up on him.

A strong fastball combo (sinker/cutter) fueled a breakout for former Top 100 prospect Quinn Priester after the rare early-season trade (Apr. 7th) landed him in Milwaukee. Milwaukee shelved his four-seamer for that cutter which paired with his heavy groundball profile (56% was 5th, min. 150 IP) to deliver a strong season despite the modest 13% K-BB. His 20% K rate was well above the 15% we saw in first 100 MLB IP, but still short of the 22% league average. I’d like to see more, but improved K% isn’t his only path to success. A premium walk rate (sub-6%) can get him to a sustainable mid-3.00s ERA level even if he sits in a 20-23% K range. Think 2024-25 level Ranger Suarez from a stats perspective: 23% K/17% K-BB/3.33 ERA/1.21 WHIP. Mar. 3rd Update: The Brewers are slow-rolling Priester’s spring after a wrist issue ended his season last year and as such, I’m moving him down the board. I’m not out, especially in leagues where IL stashes are viable if they take that approach with him, but with their depth it’s understandable why they will take time with Priester.

David Peterson is a WHIP killer who has leveraged HR suppression (0.6) to garner a 3.67 ERA despite a 1.34 WHIP and 11% K-BB. He is a groundball guy, but he’s also run a 9% HR/FB (12% lg avg) and if that regresses without improvement elsewhere, he could be in real trouble. I can see occasional pockets of streamability when the matchups lineup and I’m chasing Wins, but I can’t recommend consistent use of Peterson without a sharp dip in WHIP.

Veterans are wrongly overlooked when it comes to upside and someone like Robbie Ray is a great example of the upside found in players with plenty of experience. His Cy Young season back in 2021 came after 5+ seasons of “fine” work. And then last year’s re-emergence came after esssentially two missed seasons (34 IP in 2023-24). Writing this on Christmas, I’d be remiss not to point out that he can be a lump of coal you end up discarding a month into the season but that risk is properly baked into his price. My rank is right in line with his winter ADP of SP41, but he is definitely a helium risk in March. It only takes a few sharp spring starts for the bandwagon to load up so plan accordingly.

Can we trust Aaron Nola anymore? Sure, we can point to a pretty good 3.81 SIERA as a way to handwave his injury-riddled 6.01 ERA in 94 IP, but honestly that’s just a different way of saying he had a 17% K-BB. That is an undeniably solid rate, but it can’t be your only thing when you’re running a 1.7 HR9 and .315 BABIP. Plus, this isn’t the first time he’s been less than reliable. He has two full seasons of mid-4.00s ERA, salvaged by quality 1.1x WHIPs that did their best to mask his burgeoning HR problem. When he dropped from 1.3 to 0.8 in 2022, there was a collective sigh of relief before he surged back up to 1.5 in 2023 and has lived there since which likely caps his ERA upside at the high-3.00s with a mid-to-high 4.00s projection. As his velo drops and age rises, it becomes increasingly unlikely that his HR rate will head back downward… be careful.

Jack Flaherty is a bargain bin version of Luzardo as Super Duds (7+ ER) ruined both his 2023 and 2025 seasons. In fact, Flaherty’s 2024 showed what Luzardo can do if he can avoid those collapses. Flaherty only allowed 5+ twice and over 5 IP in both, mitigating their damage. I regret not preaching more caution about Flaherty’s 1.3 HR9 from 2024, even as he returned to Detroit where he had so much success.

It was clear even before hindsight that he was going to pay severely for any WHIP regression as the solo shots turn to multi-run homers. I thought/hoped he’d hold more of his BB% gains, but it jumped 3 pts to 9% (his career mark, so again – should’ve expected it or at least been more open to it) which paired with a 20 pt. BABIP surge to tank his WHIP. He still maintained a 19% K-BB, though, so I’m not out on a buyback entirely, especially at a far lower cost than last season. Now a mid-rotation fit you need a lot less from him to pay off, Flaherty can even be curated to avoid difficult HR venues on the road in several formats.

I’m really torn on where to rank Shota Imanaga. I value a WHIP stud even if he comes with some ERA risk… but I think I’m just the worried the ERA risk is low-5.00s. He had a 1.9 HR9 last year! We knew homers would be part of his game coming over so it’s not a shock. As a super flyball pitcher, he’s generally going to allow fewer hits, but if BABIP runs cold on him then he’s Bailey Ober. Be careful.

After being a swingman through the first two months of the season, Ryne Nelson rejoined the rotation permanently on June 7th with a hideous 3 IP/7 ER Dud. Even leaving that in the 20-start sample from that point forward, he posted a 3.38 ERA/1.10 WHIP in 112 IP, allowing more than 3 ER just 4x. Nelson really ran against the grain by adding fastball usage, something almost no one is doing these days, jumping 6 pts to an MLB-high 62% usage (min. 100 IP). From there, both sides see about 12% cutters and righties get a 20% slider while lefties get a 15% curveball. This approach does limit his strikeout upside, as we’ve seen throughout his career (19% K%) and 2025 was no different with only a slight increase to 21%. His best avenue for improvement is more sliders v. righties, but barring a fundamental pitch mix shift, he’s likely to remain in the 19-22% range so get your Ks elsewhere and let Nelson be a ratios asset for you.

I believe in a lot of what Matthew Boyd did last year as he parlayed a substantial velo jump (+1.3 to 93.3 mph) with a sharp control improvement (-2 pts to 6% BB, +3 pts to 107 LOC+), but repeating the 180 IP feels like a big stretch for the 35-year old southpaw. He totaled 263 IP from 2020-24 which would only rank 14th among full-time RPs and tops only four other SPs in that timeframe. He’s been hurt a lot. I mentioned this last year with Seth Lugo and probably somewhere else in this year’s rankings but the market has gotten so much better at pricing this breakout type the year after. Going around pick-220 is perfectly reasonable when you see the other higher-than-normal injury risk upside guys going near him: Joe Musgrove, Ryan Weathers, Gerrit Cole, and Kodai Senga.

Perhaps naively, I think there’s still a bit more in the tank for Casey Mize. If he can clean up the homers and shave some hits off his ledger, there’s a 3.20 ERA/1.10 WHIP season in there. He’s a control artist so the 22% K rate is likely a ceiling, but if he can hone his command a bit to push the HRs back under 1.0 like 2024, that’s a legitimate growth avenue for him. I’m not sure this infield defense is going to aid him to a well-below .300 BABIP anytime soon (though I doubt Kevin McGonigle will be worse than Trey Sweeney defensively at SS and with a muuuuch better bat, he’s an easy net-positive for Mize & Co.) so he’d likely just have to get some good fortune there. He’s a deep league with some fringe upside, but don’t get caught up in his Top 50 SP Player Rater slot from last year as it was heavily Wins-aided; he drops to 99 when you drop the Ws contribution and re-run the rankings.

Houston traded for Mike Burrows after a nice rookie season in what ended up being a sneaky big three-way… and anytime you can join one of those… err, Jacob Melton was sent back to Pittsburgh and the Rays got involved by including power 2B Brandon Lowe with others. Burrows brings big velocity and a control profile with some promising secondaries

Joey Cantillo has been one of my favorite prospects outside the Top 100 the last few years and I’m excited to see his first full season as a starter in the majors. He did pretty well in a swingman season last year, relieving for the first two months and then spent June stretching out in Triple-A before returning as a starter to put up a 2.96 ERA/1.21 WHIP/16% K-BB in 67 IP. A WHIP that high suggests the ERA might’ve had some good fortune to it and the issue is the same one we’ve seen throughout his pro career: walks. He’s been a double-digit BB% guy all the way up and spiked up to 11% in the majors last year after a 9% mark in his 2024 sample. With an elite K% (27% in MLB; 30% in MiLB), anything sub-10% on the BB% will work, but north of that puts extra burden on his hit suppression to keep the WHIP under 1.30. He’s priced to buy so the risk is covered in his ADP (SP87, ~pick-285) if you’re also a fan of Cantillo like me!

OK, I’ll admit it – I pigeonholed Chad Patrick as Tobias Myers Pt. 2 with my initial ranking placement. I knew I’d get around to him later to investigate further, but I expected to see a near carbon copy of Milwaukee’s 2024 breakout pitcher. I was wrong. Simply put, Patrick just has much better stuff and as such has a much better shot at repeating. In fairness to Myers, he was limited to just 50 IP in a swingman role (22 gms, 6 starts) so maybe he’d have gotten better with more volume, but his inability to consistently miss bats (22% K/9% SwStr in ’24; 17%/9% in ’25) always made him a risky bet to repeat.

Patrick was only a click better in SwStr at 10%, but managed a 25% K rate and a closer look at his arsenal has me thinking both could rise this year. His 105 STF+ ranked 21st last yr (min. 110 IP) and we saw him deliver consistent low-teens SwStr rates in the high minors so pushing upward even a little can put him position for 26-28% K rate.

Yessss, my dream came true!! Justin Verlander is headed back to the Tigers. I have no delusions of JV being a stud again, but he doesn’t need to be as a 5th starter. He’s had a 4.50 SIERA/1.28 WHIP/13% K-BB over 405 IP the last three years. He managed a sub-4.00 ERA in two of the three, but a 5.48 in the other when his HR9 spiked to 1.5 (1.0 in the other seasons) and I see HR allowance remaining the key driver of whether or not he’ll have a sub-4.00 ERA.

His old stomping grounds aren’t the worst place for him as Comerica Park has a 99 HR park factor the last three years, higher than San Francisco’s 82 but a bit below Houston’s 105 and New York’s (Mets) 104 which were his last three homes. The entire division could be instrumental to HR suppression as only Minnesota (102) holds a plus HR factor, though KC’s moved in fences should boost their 85 factor some.

Merrill Kelly is dealing with an early Spring Training back issue as February 24th. He should not be drafted until we have further information. When healthy, he’s a cromulent Team Streamer with a mid-3.00s ERA/sub-1.20 WHIP in 3 of the L4 seasons (2024 was the other yr: 4.03 ERA/1.17 WHIP in 73 injury IP). He has to be healthy to deliver the bankable production we’re looking for, though.

I initially parked Clay Holmes way too high, but that’s the beauty of a living list. He did successfully transfer from RP-to-SP, taking 31 turns with a solid 3.53 ERA. From a fantasy perspective, we can’t gloss over the 1.30 WHIP and 18% K rate, neither of which is helping much in anything but the absolute deepest of formats (and even then, they’re simply hurting less and the ERA is valuable enough to eat the lagging WHIP/K%). His swinging strike rate cratered to 9% and while we all expected he would drop some from his RP days, 3 whole points is quite a dip. As such, I don’t really expect any sort of strikeout surge barring major improvements on that SwStr%. More of the same gives him some streaming viability, but not much more.

Buried deep in my annual pitching prospects piece for the last few weeks ahead of its release, I missed the Chris Bassitt to Baltimore signing. It’s a perfectly cromulent move and they did a solid job rebuilding that rotation this year after the disastrous offseason last year. Bassitt had a heavy home (2.71 ERA)/road (5.47) split last year, but even within that was volatility as his best start of the year (using Game Score) was in Citi Field against his former team. But then his next seven best were all home starts and 9 of his 10 worst were roadies. I don’t have a major takeaway from that, especially with a new home park, I just wanted to underscore the inconsistency that puts him in the streaming category.

Nick Martinez inked a 1-year deal with the Rays for the backend of their rotation. Martinez couldn’t back up his 2024 breakthrough with the Reds (3.80 SIERA in 142 IP) as his K-BB dipped from 17% to 11%, saddling him with a 4.59 SIERA in 166 IP. He’s been swingman in both seasons (42 starts, 40 relief app.) which no doubt appealed to the Rays as they are very fluid with their pitching roles. I’m going to take the easy way out and take the average of his last two seasons as solid baseline expectation: 4.22 SIERA, 3.83 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 14% K-BB.

The new home stadium for the Athletics was a disaster for their pitchers, resulting in the 3rd-worst home ERA and WHIP (4.99/1.43). Their de facto ace Jeffrey Springs kept it from sinking his season, managing a palatable 1.27 WHIP despite a 4.81 ERA while pitching remarkably well on the road (3.45/1.15). He had an insane HR split: 1.9 home, 1.1 road. I’m concerned that he won’t repeat either side of the split, with both headed upward. His top 20 BABIP (.255) was a career best and while he has run decent BABIPs since emerging in 2021, nothing about 11% K-BB profile has me confident in a repeat near this. Low-groundball profiles do foster lower BABIPs in general, but I expect something closer to the .279 he had in 2021-24 which will likely push his ERA closer to his 2025 SIERA of 4.60, all while being half a pitcher since you’re never running him at home.

From my Prospects piece:

Outlook: Bubba Chandler’s electric debut (22% K-BB in 31 innings) tamped down concerns that arose from a 12% walk rate in Triple-A. Maybe he was just bored racking up 100 inning down there when he was clearly ready for The Show. He has three pitches but features only two against each side – fastball/slider vs. righties; fastball/changeup vs. lefties – which does lower his margin for error if he can’t expand the arsenal.

Upside: Powered by a 99-mph fastball, Chandler’s two pitches per side are enough, as he puts up sparkling ratios in 150 innings with at least a strikeout per inning. Let’s get real crazy with it, and say that both he and Paul Skenes also tally 14 wins, which would make them the first Pirates to do so since 2018, when both Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams did it. The Pirates have just five double-digit Wins seasons since: two by Skenes and Mitch Keller, and one by Joe Musgrove.

Downside: The lack of arsenal depth leaves Chandler needing to be perfect with his fastball too often because any time the slider and changeup aren’t at their best, he struggles. The result ends up being an inconsistent, low-100s-inning season that shows flashes of his upside but not enough to make him a roster mainstay in anything but the deepest of leagues.

There are always a few big Playoff Tax guys each year and Trey Yesavage is the easy model for that this year. He used a solid 3-start run at the end of the year as the springboard to a fantastic playoff effort that saw three gems, a solid outing, one dud, and a World Series Game 7 relief appearance. All told he had a 3.64 ERA/1.07 WHIP/26% K-BB in 28 IP. Paired with his regular season work, it’s 42 IP that has elevated him to SP42 in Winter drafts.

While impressive on the biggest stage, nothing about his October performance suggests he is a finished product. He’s a standard high-end prospect arm riding mostly off pure stuff right now. He had an 11% BB in both his MiLB and MLB samples, putting a major burden on his hit suppression to keep his WHIP in check. His development likely won’t be a straight line upward making him a decent bet to disappoint in his first full season. I’m not afraid of unproven pitchers as a class, just prefer others to Yesavage.

Sneaky strong swingman season for Braxton Ashcraft, getting near-equal samples as a starter (33) and reliever (36) and performing tangibly better in the former with a 19% K-BB v. 14% in relief. He has a high-90s heater, but it needs work to be a weapon as his breaking balls are the story. The slider ate up righties while the curveball handled lefties. The walks were up a bit in his minor (9%) and major (8%) league stints after just a 6% in 235 MiLB innings coming into 2025. Was he just taking advantage of the lower minors or could he tap into another level of control in his first full season as an MLB starter?

A high-3.00s ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP projection with paths to improvement make Ashcraft an interesting later round pick going past pick-250. If they bring Konnor Griffin north, the Pirates might really have something with Skenes-Keller-Ashcraft-Chandler headlining the rotation and Griffin joining newcomers Lowe-Ozuna-O’Hearn to give them some actual lineup depth. Keep expectations in check, but we might not have to immediately forgo Ws when drafting Pirates SPs this year.

From my Prospects piece:

Outlook: Logan Henderson impressed in limited looks last year (3.20 SIERA/25% K-BB in 25 innings) before a flexor strain ended his season in early August. He’s fully healthy as of late October, putting him in line for a rotation spot to open 2026. We have him penciled into the fifth spot on RosterResource, but that could become a battle, with Robert Gasser and newcomers Brandon Sproat and Kyle Harrison all fighting for one spot. That also assumes Chad Patrick is locked into the fourth starter role, which I agree with, but I guess isn’t a guarantee after just one good year. Gimme whoever wins the spot, with Gasser being my favorite (he’s no longer prospect-eligible) and Henderson right behind him.

Upside: Henderson falls right in line as the next great Brewers Breakthrough, following Tobias Myers in 2024 and the aforementioned Patrick last year. Henderson could combine the best of both, resulting in a K-BB rate north of 20% for 125-plus innings.

Downside: Henderson is overshadowed in spring and never gets an extended look, as the studs stay relatively intact while Jacob Misiorowski and Chad Patrick improve upon their 2025 seasons in at least 125 innings apiece. There’s a skill-related downside for Henderson, too, as he doesn’t overpower batters (92.9 mph fastball as a righty) or have a deep arsenal (2.5 pitches: three vs. lefties, and two vs. righties), but I see a stable skills floor, so I looked at the playing time angle for his downside.

From my Prospects piece:

Outlook: Still just entering his age-23 season, Andrew Painter maintains huge upside, though some questions have crept in after a bumpy return from two years off (4.81 FIP in 118 innings). His skills regularly shone through, but hot streaks were consistently broken up by Duds (five-plus earned run outings). It’s an important year for Painter, but far from a make-or-break season. I wouldn’t even be overly concerned if he fails to break camp and heads back to Triple-A for more seasoning.

Upside: Painter immediately closes the development gap, with his bat-missing ability driving solid mid-rotation success. There’s a chance he’s an ace immediately, but I’m aiming for more realistic upside as opposed to just the 99th- or 100th-percentile outcome. If we got 130-plus innings of mid-3.00s ERA/sub-1.25 WHIP/26%+ K%, that’d be great for his price.

Downside: Painter isn’t quite ready yet and spends more time in Triple-A than the majors. The season ends up being a developmental step forward for him, but underwhelming on the fantasy landscape.

Zebby Matthews definitely understood the assignment of being a Twins pitcher: strong K-BB rates torpedoed by too many HRs while still generating compelling underlying ERA indicators to maintain interest on the fantasy landscape. Their starters were 6th in K-BB (16%) but 26th in HR9 (1.4) last year and it’s just been a model their pitchers have fit for several years now. Home run problems always open up the range of outcomes for a pitcher and we’ve seen that play out in something like Joe Ryan’s 4.51 ERA from 2023 or Bailey Ober’s full-on collapse of 2025 (HRs + inj = trouble!) or even just Zebby’s first two MLB samples: 5.92 ERA v. 3.80 SIERA. His 1.8 HR9 is a big issue but the real problem is that he’s been pairing it with a crazy .359 BABIP, you just can’t be that hittable when you’re giving up that many bombs. I’m willing to bet on the 18% K-BB and hope he can smooth out the hits over a larger sample, but he’s going to be a quick decision for me this year so if he struggles early, I’ll pull the ripcord.

Noah Cameron had an incredible rookie year built on a control-based profile with a deep arsenal. In fact, he’s sort of a lefty Casey Mize from a skills standpoint: BB-suppression foundation with a five-pitch arsenal, though with more of a groundball lean and a much stronger defense supporting him. In fact, hit suppression (.241 BABIP, 6th) and an excellent LOB rate (84%, 4th) were key to his sparkling 2.99 ERA. Upon further investigation, I’m lighter on Cameron than I expected and barring an unforeseen strikeout development, his 4.33 SIERA is a better guide for 2026 expectations than the 2025 ERA. I would target WHIP above anything else here.

From my Prospects piece:

Outlook: Parker Messick is fighting for a rotation spot with Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen. All three have options, so that can’t be used against Messick, who is clearly the most talented. He flashed a 4% walk rate in his 40-inning debut, half his minor league rate across 354 pro innings. Even regressing back to 8% leaves room for success if he’s missing bats, and his deep arsenal creates multiple paths to success, too.

Upside: Messick’s walk rate gains are fully legit, and he pushes toward his 28% minor league strikeout rate in a full-scale breakout: 3.30 ERA/1.20 WHIP/20% K-BB in 26-28 starts.

Downside: He gets buried behind the guys with more seniority and ends up being just OK when he arrives (4.50 ERA/1.30 WHIP/14-16% K-BB), which would still be a fine outcome for Cleveland, just not very fantasy relevant.

Jack Leiter was at the mercy of his 10% walk rate in a solid rookie campaign. A 13% K-BB doesn’t catch your eye as a below average mark, but he showed clear growth as the season continued. He ran just a 9% mark in the first half as both ends were below average only to spike a 26% K rate in the second half that allowed him to survive a still-high 10% BB rate. This is why it’s easy to get so strikeout-pilled, they undeniably expand your margin for error. The control keeps my interest at bay for Leiter. I can see taking him if he’s running up near his max pick (~260), but I’m not chasing him.

I absolutely love Troy Melton, but I was already concerned that he wouldn’t win a rotation spot before the arrival of Framber Valdez so now it seems like a real longshot barring perhaps even multiple injuries. He threw nearly 130 IP last year so he shouldn’t have to be too heavily restricted to make it through the entire season, but I could see the Tigers slow rolling him a bit in April only to unleash for 4.5-5 months instead of aiming for 30+ starts in the Tigers rotation. I could see them running more of a seniority/salary heirarchy with Drew Anderson back from the KBO as the #6 and taking the first open spot followed by Melton.

On talent alone, Melton is almost certainly better than Anderson and might even be better Reese Olson – another favorite of mine so I’m not ruling out Melton simply talent-forcing his way into the mix. I expect him to contribute substantively at some point relatively early even if he starts in Triple-A, so I’ve been comfortable drafting him in the winter. March drafters will likely have a lot more clarity on Melton’s path, though if he is angling toward a spot, expect that ADP to skyrocket from post-300 to top 150. He has THAT much talent.

Feb. 24th Update: Olson went out with injury but was essentially replaced by Verlander meaning Melton is probably still the 7th man as we inch toward March. I’m moving him down because we don’t have to pay the premium of a top 70 SP to get him right now. I took part in some early drafts this past weekend that will have a FAAB period right before the season starts and drafts like that are exactly where I love a Melton. If he wins the spot, I hit a windfall; if not, he’s one of my first cuts in what always ends up being a rich FAAB pool because it encompasses all of spring. Mar. 4th Update: Melton’s been felled by an elbow strain and won’t be ready to start the season. Honestly, I’m just reverting back to my original idea that he’s going to be a 4.5-5 month pitcher making him a tough draft in leagues without deep reserves and/or a designate minor league spot. I will be ready to re-pounce once he joins the rotation, assuming this doesn’t get worse, of course.

Roki Sasaki is entering spring with a rotation spot in tow after a mixed debut that ended on a higher note with his playoff relief work, though the wet blanket in me has to point out that he still had just 6 Ks and 5 BB in 11 IP of work. The raw talent is sky-high but until we see either a sharp rise in Ks or drop in BBs (ideally both, eventually), I’m not really buying in. That said, this is the kind of profile that completely flips on a dime. If we’re seeing a 20% K-BB in Spring Training highlighted by any shred of fastball command, then he rockets up the board. I understand if he’s your upside play as we all have our group of unproven pitchers that we’re ready to bet on taking the leap even without perfect statistical backing behind it. Sasaki might in your group to go for, he’s just not in mine… yet.

Shane McClanahan missed the entire season after the original reports suggested his injury wasn’t that bad… that is why we add 1.5-2x to announced injury timelines (unless it’s George Kirby and your crush gets the best of you!). Mar. 3rd Update: Sugar Shane made his spring debut with two innings of work and while there’s nothing from the outing itself that pushes him up, this is more of an adjustment to shifting from draft and hold to waiver leagues. While I’m not against drafting Mc in either format, I’m more inclined to take a shot in a waiver setup where I can move on if injury strikes again. Despite two straight missed seasons, I don’t think TB will be overly protective with a healthy McClanahan and I’d use his 166 IP from 2022 as a viable target for this year. Continue to monitor him through spring but be ready to a higher draft price with each passing outing.

Rotator cuff ate up the second half of Kris Bubic’s breakout season. I’ll dive back in when we get information on how he’s looking for his comeback. He made his Spring Training debut on March 2nd, but I want him to get a few before looking deeper.

Joe Musgrove had his TJ surgery in October 2024 giving him the chance at a pretty full season if he’s ready to go. I’ll still be careful about drafting him, but I do treat the extended rehabs different than standard 12-13 mos.

March 25 internal brace for Gerrit Cole, won’t be ready for Opening Day. Feb 24th Update: No update on Cole’s health, but we have a loose late-May/early-June timeline which takes him off the draft board in NFBC leagues. His rehab has been reportedly been going beautifully so keep tabs on him throughout March to decide if you want to stash him in IL-friendly formats.

Sean Manaea avoided elbow surgery but managed just 61 uneven innings after his 2024 breakout campaign. More later as news develops.

August back surgery didn’t stop the Baltimore Orioles from bringing back Zach Eflin on a 1-year make good deal. His timeline right after the surgery was 4-8 months (crazy for it to be that wide) and the high end of that has him back shortly after the season starts (late-Apr/early-May). The 71 IP we did see in a 2025 were a complete disaster but a healthy Eflin should still have the ability to drop a high-3.00s ERA/low-1.10s WHIP as the #4-5 on what is all of a sudden a really fun rotation in Baltimore. UPDATE: After his re-signing with Baltimore, we got news of an upcoming bullpen and a target to be ready by Opening Day. I’ll believe it more in March, but this will likely raise price though he should remain plenty affordable for those who want to take a shot.

Grayson Rodriguez missed the entire 2025 season and now shifts to LA, more on him deeper in the offseason. Feb. 24th Update: He did in fact debut the day this was written, but the jump isn’t entirely based on that. It’s just an adjustment after a couple drafts the last two days. Given my inexplicable penchant for Angels SPs the last few years, maybe I should be higher on Rodriguez, but I’m just on the fringes of his market right now. A month from now during peak draft season, I might be ready to dive in if he has a fully healthy spring to that point.

Grant Holmes ended the season with a partially torn UCL. Feb. 24th Update: Holmes is fully rehabbed and penciled into the Opening Day rotation per PBO Alex Anthopoulos. He more than doubled his BB% from the impressive 68 IP we saw in 2024, jumping 6 pts to 11% and that was a major roadblock to truly emerging. He didn’t have a single walk-free start and walked at least 3 in 10 of 21 starts. That he still went 6+ IP nine times is impressive given the inefficiency he battled. With the declaration that he’s in the rotation, I expect his ADP to rise a bit in Draft Champions, sitting at 412 as of this writing.

We’re just a year removed from a Rookie of the Year effort out of Luis Gil. It was a bad year that included a long-term lat injury that delayed his start until August and then just a 3% K-BB in the 57 IP he did throw. I understand why his stock is down, but I’m not against the rebuy. If healthy, there’s no reason he can’t be a high-strikeout team streamer type. Barring elite hit suppression, the WHIP will be high because of the walks so you’re chasing strikeouts, Win potential, and ideally a solid sub-4.00 ERA.

Reynaldo López missed the entire 2025 season after arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder. He is reportedly healthy entering Spring Training with a rotation spot in hand. Keep an eye on his velo in March, if he’s 95+ then he’s worth a shot in the pick 250-300 range. ATL opens with KC/ATH at home, ARI/LAA on the road, and then CLE/MIA back at home again which could line up nice streaming situations for Lopez & Holmes, especially in shallower leagues where neither will be a must-start.

It was a solid 145 IP for Lucas Giolito before an elbow injury ended his season in late-September. Now a free agent, I’ll revisit him after he signs as I suspect that will also bring some more clarity on his health.

Back injury ended Seth Lugo’s year on 9/21.

José Soriano ended on IL with a forearm contusion.

Jared Jones had May UCL surgery w/10-12 mo. timeline.

Spencer Arrighetti is expected to be ready for Opening Day, returning from an elbow injury that ended his season on August 30th.

Internal brace in Dec 24 for Braxton Garrett; ready for 26?

April UCL revision surgery for Justin Steele; likely back in May-June. I’ll update if there’s any big news on that front. Not the worst stash in leagues with several IL spots (3+ at the very least, but ideally 5+).

Late-Jun hip surgery ruined Max Meyer’s season.

Knee injury ended Landen Roupp’s season early.

Shoulder surgery in October 2024 ate up all of 2025 for Gavin Stone after a very promising rookie season. He debuted in Spring Training in late-Feb. and as part of the 40-man roster, it’s certainly not unthinkable that he wins the 5th man spot in the rotation. Even if he doesn’t get the spot right away, he’s a safe bet to deliver some useful innings as long as his shoulder holds up. I like him for Draft Champions leagues right now, though his 655 ADP will likely move a good bit just off a clean inning with 2 Ks in the aforementioned debut but even a 200-pick mega surge wouldn’t be cost prohibitive for me. That’d put him around other guys with an uncertain role entering March: Brandon Sproat, Mick Abel, Spencer Arrighetti, and free agent as of this writing – Zack Littell.

Josiah Gray had TJ returner all the way back in July 2024 and is now fully healthy and vying to return to rotation. Still just 28 years old and a one-time premium prospect, there is a glint of hope for Gray to breakthrough, but that will take some real work. Even his “good” 2023 really only had a superficially useful ERA (3.91) completely undercut by a devastating 1.46 WHIP. I need to see something that looks like improvement before even taking a last round DC shot.

Patrick Sandoval had an internal brace TJ in June 2024 but still missed all of 2025.

Corbin Burnes will be back around July from TJ.

From my Prospects piece:

Outlook: I remember fielding questions last year about Robby Snelling as a potential September pickup in hopes of a call-up that never came despite his pure brilliance at Triple-A (2.62 FIP/26% K-BB in 64 innings). That makes his road a smidge tougher in 2026 since he isn’t on the 40-man, but the Marlins will make room if he shows up to the Grapefruit League with last year’s skills. Like so many players these days, work at an offseason facility – Maven Baseball Lab in this case – helped put the young prospect back on track ahead of his breakout season in 2025. The Marlins aren’t shy about trusting their young arms when they show readiness.

Upside: The innings progression has Snelling ready for 28-30 starts even though he’s just 22 years old, and a full season of these skills (20% K-BB, upper-20%s K%) would be fantastic. Chris Paddack isn’t an impediment to him making the Opening Day rotation. He has huge helium potential, as he could rise nearly 150 picks with a big spring and guaranteed role, putting him in the Bubba Chandler/Trey Yesavage range.

Downside: Snelling gets stuck in Triple-A longer than he should and falls back into some pre-2025 habits, resulting in 60-70 uninspiring innings and his launch being delayed a year.

I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that Eduardo Rodriguez is some great pick on the heels of back-to-back 5.00+ ERA/1.50+ WHIP seasons (254 IP total, only 50 IP in 2024), buuuut I’ve also been around long enough to see these guys come back, especially when they’re only 33 years old. He’s been worse than good E-Rod for sure, but not this bad. As I kept looking at his profile landing mostly on “bad luck” as the reason, I headed over to PitcherList to inspect his pitch PLVs to see if there was a serious degradation I was missing. There isn’t, he’s right in line with career norms.

Then one of the funniest things happened… I checked Nick’s 2026 D’Backs preview to see if he had anything on the fall and I swear we did not coordinate this, but here’s first line: “It may sound strange to advocate for a pitcher with back-to-back 5.00+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP seasons, but Erod really deserves better.” — we’re literally twins! This was so good that I had to FaceTime him about it. He goes on to find essentially the same: he’s worse, but not this much worse. Nick also cited his +22 hit luck last year against a paltry 1.5% mistake rate, which is a better way of expressing how the BABIP luck is working against him. It’s always felt hollow to just say “well his BABIP is high and he’s unlucky, buy in!” and now we can better dig into that as Nick shows. Check out his whole D’Backs preview here. Meanwhile, E-Rod is a great mid-30s round Draft Champions pick. I don’t think the 10 guys going ahead of him have his MLB experience combined and when you’re that late in a DC, playing time is gold. Arizona is going to give him a shot to succeed again.

I didn’t want to just do a Madlib for each A’s pitcher pointing out how they flopped in Sacramento so they’re a shaky road-only starter of modest fantasy interest. Enter: Jacob Lopez. He completely flipped the narrative on his head with a spicy 2.64 ERA/1.13 WHIP at home in 44 IP, well beyond

Michael Soroka finished season as RP after returning from injury but he should be given the chance for a rotation spot in Arizona unless they add anyone else more prominent before Spring Training starts.

While early projections have Emmet Sheehan penciled into the rotation, don’t sleep on Justin Wrobleski emerging as a candidate, especially after the Blake Snell delayed start news. Two disastrous starts (12 ER in 11 IP) plus 5-run relief meltdown accounted for more than half his earned runs (17 of 32). He posted a sparkling 2.44 ERA in his other 55 IP and his core skills weren’t far from his righty counterpart. JW: 21% K-BB, 2.89 SIERA, 104 Pitching+ | ES: 23%, 3.20, 108. That said, there is room for both with a projected 6-man rotation (Yoshi, Shohei, Glasnow, Sheehan, Roki and then an open 6th competition with Wrobly/Stone/Ryan/Knack/probably some random stud we don’t know yet, so I’m jumping Wrobleski up a good bit without sinking Sheehan.

If Luis Severino stays in Sacramento, he’s half a starter and a road-only streamer is scary. Feb. 24th Update:As of late-February, he remains in Sacramento as no trade materialized in the offseason. He wasn’t shy about sharing his dislike of Sutter Health Ballpark, where he posted a 6.01 ERA/1.53 WHIP in 82 IP. He was legitimately awesome on the road at 3.02/1.07, but road-only streamers are scary so be careful!

If you saw the initial rankings, Cade Povich was in the Top 100. That was always an error. Just an oversight when reviewing the first run. I only point that out just to make sure this drop down isn’t seen as JUST responding to the Baz trade & Eflin signing. Big shoutout to Spuriosity in the comments for also clocking the bad initial ranking. Sure, there is some upside still left for Povich, but he didn’t belong in that Raw Upside tier. We’re still in the range where a tweak or two could put him back on the radar, but those advancements – if they come – will be developed in the minors for the foreseeable future.

Ryan Weathers did finish the season on the bump which I always like when betting on an injury-shortened season. He has wrestled injuries throughout career, though it might surprise you to learn he’s still just 26 years old. He debuted young so he’s been in consciousness for a long time but isn’t anywhere near old. Jan 19th Update: Weathers was dealt to NYY and should be in line for a rotation spot with them. MIA’s park has actually played a tick higher in offense (101 park factor) than NYY (100) in the last 3 years, but the key difference between them is where Weathers could get burned. NYY’s 119 HR factor is 3rd in MLB, well above MIA’s 90 factor (21st). Weathers has a career 1.6 HR9 in 281 IP so this could be an issue in NYY without improvement. If you believe there is growth potential, then you’re OK going for a 26-year old pedigreed arm who throws mid-90s and has managed a solid 15% K-BB, 3.74 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP over the last two seasons though it just 125 IP.

This ranking may feel like too sharp of a reaction to Bailey Ober’s 2025 meltdown, but his HR problem was always the Sword of Damocles ready to deliver its wrath upon his ERA. The already-brutal 1.4 HR9 surged to 1.9 while his BABIP jumped nearly 50 pts and his already-low velo dipped 1.5 mph to just 90.2 — all that added up to a 5.10 ERA/1.30 WHIP in 146 IP. He might not be as bad as the confluence of events that conspired against him in 2025, but the 4.51 SIERA makes sense to me maybe not as an upside but as a starting point. Feb 4th Update: I’ve softened a bit on my “he’s cooked” stance in light of the persistent hip issues that plagued him last year. I still think his velo/HR9 combo is scary, but I’m more open to the idea of him clawing back some of the velo drop if he’s healthy so he’s back on my radar and I’ll be tracking his velo in March.

Cristian Javier had a modest return from Tommy John surgery last year, leaning on extreme HR suppression to salvage a rough 4.62 ERA. He had just a 12% K-BB and 9% SwStr, but I’m less concerned about the results and more interested in him working out some of the post-TJ kinks in order to enter 2026 fully in the honeymoon phase (~2 yr. window where their TJ risk is lowered). I’ll be keeping an eye on his velocity (career 93 mph) and whiffs. Meanwhile, I can’t even begin to guess where that 5% HR/FB will go. Keep your expectations in check and he should be a fine throw around pick-350.

Taking from my Bold Predictions piece where I suggested he could have a Top 25 SP season:

This is a good pitcher! Coming into last year, Taj Bradley had 27% K and 19% K-BB rates, good for 14th and 27th among 86 pitchers (min. 240 IP) but his 1.7 HR9 saddled him with a 4.75 ERA (compared to a 3.75 SIERA). Uneven skills in 111 IP with Tampa Bay (lower K-BB, but also fewer HRs) came unglued after trade to Minnesota as skills rebounded (15%) but brought back the homers (1.7). I never really hold a post-trade performance against a guy, either. Bradley throws 97 mph, has a 5-pitch arsenal that gives him four pitches against each side. He eschewed the WBC to stay with his new team and connect with his catcher and coaches, which doesn’t guarantee success but is likely the right move for his development. I think he finds a HR fix this year and pops off!

Yusei Kikuchi is a WHIP killer and HR machine… I just don’t trust him.

Brandon Pfaadt’s career 1.4 HR9 tells you all you need to know about his first three MLB seasons. While one stat is never the entire story, it perfectly underscores why he has disappointed against expectations. He made a big stride against lefties last year with a career-best .775 OPS but that still included 14 HRs and the gains were canceled out by his work v. righties (+176 pts in OPS from ’24 to .811). He borders on almost too many offerings v. lefties now with five pitches at 11%+ and a sixth right there at 9%, though he’s likely just searching for something to avoid the longball. There is a skill foundation to build upon with a career 17% K-BB as his highs are high enough, but his lows are loooow (a trademark of HR SPs) and have resulted in the 3rd-most Duds since 2023.

We are 206 underwhelming innings (5.59 ERA/1.45 WHIP) away from Bryce Elder’s “something” that we’ve seen and even that surface 3.66 ERA from 2022-23 was always suspect against the 1.27 WHIP and 4.70 SIERA. In a twist fate, his K-BB has jumped 3 pts to 12% in these last two seasons, but his HR9 spiking from 0.91 to 1.4 killed any chance of extracting any gains from the improved skills. After two major injuries for ATL at the outset of Spring Training, Elder is now in position for the 5th starter’s role though hardly a lock and as such, I’m not drafting him anywhere.

Cody Ponce returns hot on the heels of a blistering KBO season that earned him a 3-year, $30 million dollar deal from the Jays. He’s sitting mid-90s now after being at 93.2 his first go in the majors and he added a splitter. That in particular had to appeal to the Jays on some level as two of their key guys feature the pitch in Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage. I’ll be curious if we get stories on how the three play off each other with ace veteran and rookie upstart being joined by the journeyman vet who has incredibly unique experience having played in the NPB as well during his time away.

Houston’s SP fortification plan including bringing Ryan Weiss back from the KBO after two years over there, showing substantial from ’24 to ’25. He added some velocity and turned his slider into a real strikeout pitch, netting a 29% K in 179 IP. He is fighting for a role in the 6-man rotation the Astros plan to use this year.

The Tigers brought Drew Anderson back to MLB after four seasons away split between the NPB and KBO. Well, sorta. The Tigers had him in the minors in 2024 where he saw his velocity jump 3 ticks to 95.5, but he didn’t make the club so he went to the KBO where he added a kick-change and took off. In two seasons, he had a 34% K and 25% K-BB across 287 IP, both 2nd to only fellow tier member Cody Ponce. He showed he could make it through a full season in 2025, too, with 172 IP in 30 starts. He also shifted his batted ball mix substantially in the KBO with a 46% GB rate after sitting around 33% in Japan. If those gains are real, he’s a low-4.00s ERA talent with some upside to do more. He will likely open the season in the pen after the Framber Valdez signing, but he could be the first man up for the Tigers. Projections are all around a 17% K-BB and that plays in the rotation.

Anthony Kay is part of a robust group of arms coming back from overseas as remade pitchers (btw, Matt Manning is a notable name who went to the KBO this year, so don’t be surprised if we see his name resurface in a few years). Kay rebuilt his arsenal in Japan, expanding to three fastballs (4-seam, sinker, cutter) to go with a sweeper and changeup and become a groundball monster (55%) who did a great job limiting HRs (0.43 in 292 IP). Likely just a streamer for now, Kay is at least back on my radar in the deepster of formats. He’ll also be pitching alongside another pitcher the White Sox brought back from overseas with success in Erick Fedde, who re-signed with them in February.

I want to be excited about Connelly Early but I think his last name might be instructive when it comes to drafting him, at least in the winter. There’s a world where he just outpitches Johan Oviedo and makes the rotation (or of course injury could strike), but right now there’s simply no room at the inn. I don’t think Bello’s spot is really up for grabs, they seem committed to him. Early came up and dropped a 5% BB rate (albeit in 19 IP) after a 9% in 206 MiLB IP which itself is a small sample. Early’s metrics backed the improvement by way of a 108 Location+, which is a Top 5 mark if he can do it for a full season. The Sox have incredible depth and it seems like Early and Payton Tolle will be part of their plan to reinforce when injuries strike as opposed to in the Opening Day rotation.

A 2024 Tommy John surgery really derailed Robert Gasser’s development at a critical moment: 5 starts into his MLB career. He made it all the way back to the majors last year albeit for just a couple starts and will now compete for the esteemed Unexpected Milwaukee Breakout Starter of the Year. He did make Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2024 (98) and was tabbed a Low Variance SP in our Next 100 in the same season so he’s not as far off the radar as Chad Patrick and Tobias Myers were, but he’s drawing a lot less attention at the draft table than Logan Henderson or Kyle Harrison. Gasser’s my favorite of the two lefties (Harrison), but it’s really personal preference as opposed to clear skill edge. I’m not sure you can find that much space between the whole trio when it comes to talent and can easily craft a breakout case for each. I have Henderson a good bit higher in the rankings as he was the only one penciled in prior to Priester’s injury, but whoever wins the 5th spot won’t be far behind him once it’s settled.

Payton Tolle seems a bit more raw to me than Connelly Early so while I see both as potential premium in-season reinforcements for the Red Sox, Tolle could take a bit longer to arrive. Red Sox greatly favor extension and the big-bodied Tolle has it in spades with a 99th percentile showing during his 16-inning MLB debut.

Kyle Harrison is trying to be this year’s Quinn Priester: former top prospect who hasn’t quite launched yet and is now moving from Boston to Milwaukee. Harrison’s shown flashes across his 195 IP as evidenced by a solid 4.16 SIERA and 15% K-BB. The question, can Milwaukee untap the next level? I’m writing this the day of his Spring Training debut as well as PitcherList unveiling these great snapshot charts that showed some struggles for him, but I’ll be watching him closely in spring as he battles for the role. My personal preference of next up Brewers lefty is Gasser but I’d be open to drafting Harrison if he wins the job.

I’m a big Ian Seymour fan for 2026, just not necessarily 2026 drafts as he’s very likely to be an in-season reinforcement for the Rays so unless your league is setup to favor holding a guy for 4-6 weeks (Draft Champs, deep reserve AL-only or giant mixed lg), just keep tabs on him for a the call-up and be ready to pounce. He’s got an excellent changeup as his A-pitch and then four supporting pitches to craft the rest of his arsenal from, which makes sense when you throw 92 mph (multiple options instead of raw fastball dominance). After some early struggles as a pro (11%), his control took a leap in 2024 and has now sat around 7% for 288 IP, and he’s never had issues missing bats despite the lack of velocity (double-digit SwStr rates at every stop but 1 as a pro and the sub-10% was for 4 IP). Seymour is likely their 4th best SP right now behind Ras, Pep, and Shane Mc, but in typical Rays fashion, they will likely try to get some innings out of Steven Matz and Nick Martinez at the frontend of the season before turning to the young lefty. They shouldn’t because after 143 IP last year, he can go a full season, but they almost certainlyyyyy will so plan accordingly.

We’ll revisit Max Scherzer when he signs. Mar. 3rd Update: He’s back with the Blue Jays and expected to be ready when the season starts. Putting the name value aside, he’s a 41-year old coming off a 5.19 ERA/1.29 WHIP with a 2.0 HR9 pushing nearly a run away from his 4.26 SIERA. In fact, his 1.7 HR9 over the last three years makes it tough to see any ERA viability from Mad Max. He has a sharp 19% K-BB in that same time (281 IP) so he might be more of a WHIP play (1.18 in the 3 yrs, but up 1.29 last yr).

Keep tabs on Didier Fuentes during Spring Training. Bryce Elder is hardly immovable from that 5th role and Fuentes certainly has the flashier profile, starting with a 96 mph heater. Nothing went right in his forgettable 13-inning, 4-start MLB debut (5.07 SIERA) but don’t let that distract you from the sharp 3-level performance he had in the minors: 30% K, 23% K-BB, 15% SwStr in 57 IP. Shoulder inflammation sidelined him shortly after that debut but isn’t expected to still be a problem entering spring leaving him, José Suarez, and Joey Wentz as the only guys on the 40-man with MLB starting experience not currently penciled into the rotation. Yep, they have just eight total guys meeting that very rigorous threshold of at least 1 MLB start.