Starting Pitcher Chart – April 21st, 2026
- Daily SP Chart archive
- 2-Start podcast episode
- Preseason SP Rankings (coming this wk!)
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.
Note: 2026 data is now featured in the chart as of April 13th! We’re still dealing with small samples, but I’ve taken out the 2025 data and you will now see the pitcher’s current numbers and the wOBA rank for their opponent this year so far!
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations, you don’t really need a shiny stat to be convinced on starting guys like that. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you an answer when I can. I try to do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
You know you’re old when your injuries are weather-related. We’ve been getting cold/rainy weather the last couple days and my neck has tightened up on me something fierce, from bad last night to worse this morning. I’ve got a ranks-only board for y’all and then I’m gonna lay back down for a bit to hopefully alleviate some of this pain. I’ll check for questions when I get back up and then again before my chat today later… I’m so out of it, I thought today was Wednesday! Chat tomorrow like normal.
A few notes on guys who may get questions:
- Still don’t know if Shota keeps the HRs down all yr but easy must-start w/added velo
- I can’t quit Luzardo’s 26% K-BB
- Messick gets a tough draw, but he’s been SO good, I can’t sit him
- I’d be more cautious w/Early if NYY was doing anything vL
- Never thought I’d be running Vásquez in Coors, but his skills are way up & COL still stinks
- Speaking of Coors, Dollander is pitching well enough to run espec. w/an opener!
- I like Mlod but TEX hitting better than expected; wish they’d give him his opener back (turns out on further research I learned he doesn’t like the opener which is too bad bc it’s so nice from a fantasy perspective. On the one hand, I’m like can’t they just tell him it’s better for him and make him have one but on the other, I want my players to be comfortable and in position to do their best so I wouldn’t necessarily be super hard-lined on it as mgmt.)
- Montero-Rocker-Griffin-Roupp have done enough to garner attention but all have Top 7 opps in wOBA…
- …meanwhile Lopez-SWR-Weiss haven’t looked good but all have great matchups – I prefer the better arms in tougher matchups
- Didn’t mean to 1-x Kelly, espec. v. CHW; I didn’t remake the board, but I’d consider him between Baz & Matz
| Rk | PITCHER | Tm | Opp | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | opp wOBA RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | at SFG | x | x | x | 25.2 | 2.10 | 0.82 | 19% | 28 |
| 2 | Nolan McLean | NYM | v. MIN | x | x | x | 23.2 | 2.28 | 0.76 | 22% | 15 |
| 3 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | v. PHI | x | x | x | 22 | 2.45 | 0.77 | 32% | 27 |
| 4 | Chase Burns | CIN | at TBR | x | x | x | 22.1 | 2.42 | 1.07 | 15% | 10 |
| 5 | Kris Bubic | KCR | v. BAL | x | x | x | 22.2 | 3.97 | 1.06 | 18% | 11 |
| 6 | Kyle Harrison | MIL | at DET | x | x | x | 14.2 | 3.07 | 1.09 | 18% | 28 |
| 7 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | at CHC | x | x | x | 22.2 | 7.94 | 1.46 | 26% | 3 |
| 8 | Luis Castillo | SEA | v. ATH | x | x | x | 18.1 | 5.40 | 1.80 | 11% | 18 |
| 9 | Parker Messick | CLE | v. HOU | x | x | x | 25.2 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 19% | 5 |
| 10 | Connelly Early | BOS | v. NYY | x | x | x | 19.2 | 2.29 | 1.27 | 12% | 24 |
| 11 | Randy Vásquez | SDP | at COL | x | x | x | 21.2 | 2.49 | 1.29 | 19% | 22 |
| 12 | Shane Baz | BAL | at KCR | x | x | 22 | 4.91 | 1.55 | 11% | 25 | |
| 13 | Steven Matz | TBR | v. CIN | x | x | 21.1 | 3.80 | 1.03 | 18% | 17 | |
| 14 | Reynaldo López | ATL | at WSN | x | x | 20.2 | 2.18 | 1.11 | 13% | 16 | |
| 15 | Chase Dollander | COL | v. SDP | x | x | 19 | 3.32 | 1.11 | 21% | 17 | |
| 16 | Carmen Mlodzinski | PIT | at TEX | x | 20.1 | 1.77 | 1.33 | 14% | 5 | ||
| 17 | Sean Burke | CHW | at ARI | x | 20.1 | 4.43 | 1.28 | 13% | 26 | ||
| 18 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | v. CHW | x | x | 5.1 | 3.38 | 1.69 | -4% | 27 | |
| 19 | Keider Montero | DET | v. MIL | x | 16.1 | 3.31 | 0.86 | 21% | 3 | ||
| 20 | Kumar Rocker | TEX | v. PIT | x | 14.2 | 4.30 | 1.50 | 10% | 7 | ||
| 21 | Foster Griffin | WSN | v. ATL | x | 20.2 | 3.05 | 1.26 | 14% | 4 | ||
| 22 | Chris Paddack | MIA | v. STL | x | 19.1 | 5.59 | 1.45 | 15% | 20 | ||
| 23 | Jacob Lopez | ATH | at SEA | 18.1 | 6.38 | 1.96 | -1% | 30 | |||
| 24 | Landen Roupp | SFG | v. LAD | 22.2 | 2.38 | 0.97 | 19% | 1 | |||
| 25 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | at NYM | 20.2 | 6.10 | 1.60 | 4% | 29 | |||
| 26 | Ryan Weiss 와이스 | HOU | at CLE | 14.2 | 6.75 | 2.05 | 11% | 21 | |||
| 27 | Dustin May | STL | at MIA | 19.1 | 6.98 | 1.60 | 13% | 8 | |||
| 28 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | v. TOR | 23.1 | 3.47 | 1.24 | 3% | 24 | |||
| 29 | Luis Gil | NYY | at BOS | 9 | 7.00 | 1.44 | 5% | 23 | |||
| 30 | Patrick Corbin | TOR | at LAA | 9.2 | 4.66 | 1.24 | 17% | 7 |
Wind a 10+:
CLE – out to center at 12
DET – in from R at 10
NYM – out to L at 10
KC – out to L center at 13
Coors – out to L at 8 – below 10 but Coors is always notable
SF – out to L center at 10 in a ballpark designed to minimize wind
A few games with minor rain concerns, but nothing in the red:
CLE – 26% toward the end of the game
DET – 42% by mid-game
LAA – 44% from before game all the way through the game and after
SF – 57% by mid-game
can you please tell me what is the benefit of the
wind like if is better for pitcher or batter ?
Anything over 10 mph IN or OUT can have a pretty big impact. Blowing in helps the pitching, out helps the hitting!
Like Paul said.
I will say, I’ve read some studies that are a little mixed on how much wind affects things given how much it can swirl in a ballpark. It definitely impacts batted balls in Wrigley and Fenway more since they were built so long ago and aren’t as tall as other ballparks. Also Sutter Health since it’s a minor league park with no 2nd deck and no tall buildings around it.
Rain is self-explanatory – need to consider the potential for rain delays interrupting starts.
Really, I just put this out there for streaming purposes. You’re starting Skubal no matter what, but if you’re thinking about streaming a guy in, might want to research whether weather (LOL) is an issue that might affect your decision.
What I post is a super brief summary and meant to be a starting point for what games might have issues.
Yeah I see it as valuable for the daily-type stuff. There’s a little DFS-style game in Out of the Park Baseball where we pick a lineup each day for in-game points and I find weather SUPER useful for that. Like you said, it’s never about sitting Skubal even if the wind is out at 20 mph at Wrigley, but in that given slate, I’d like take a #2/#3-type over Skubal bc of those 1-day weather concerns
Really appreciate you doing these posts as they are incredibly helpful. Weather is a huge factor.