Big Kid Adds (Week 4)

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are seven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Hitters

Sam Antonacci (7): Antonacci was a solid target for teams needing steals. Over 519 PA last season, he stole 48 bases while hitting only 5 HR. He reminds me a bit of Jakob Marsee. In the majors, he’s swinging and making contact, leading to a 7% BB% and 4% K%. All his contact has been weak (50% GB%, 32% HardHit%) with his only home run being an inside-the-park little league variety.

Oswald Peraza (6): He’s been playing semi-regularly (seven starts in the last 10 games) with 4 HR, 3 SB, and a .294 AVG. He’s taken a step forward by improving his contact rate (69% Contact% to 73%) and dropping his strikeout rate (30% K% to 22%). Additionally, he is hitting the ball in the air more with his launch angle up 4 degrees and his groundball rate down  from 52.1% to 40.8%. A lot of his value going forward will be determined by his playing time.

Everson Pereira (5): The 25-year-old outfielder came off the IL and has started six straight games while posting a .295 AVG with 3 HR in 51 PA. He has taken a step forward by raising his Contact% from 58% to 65%, thereby dropping his strikeout rate from 38% to 28%.

Daniel Schneemann (4): Starting regularly (eight starts in the last 10 games) and a .432 BABIP leading to a .310 AVG with 2 HR and 1 SB. An accumulator (when starting) who is qualified at three positions (2B, 3B, OF).

Starters

Noah Schultz (7): The demand for Schultz was going to be up in the air with a dud debut (4 IP, 4 K, 4 BB, 3 ER). He redeemed himself on Sunday with 6 K, 1 BB, and 1 ER in 5 IP. And the bids went through the roof. I made some strong bids but wasn’t able to get him. While he has some injury history limiting him to 88 IP in 2024 and 73 IP last season, I was interested in those few strong innings.

In AAA, he posted a 1.29 ERA (2.31 xFIP), 0.43 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9. That xFIP value is what caught my attention. In this year’s edition of The Process, I found that a AAA xFIP value was the best predictor of MLB ERA.

Using the above conversion and this season’s 2.31 xFIP, a ~2.50 ERA would be expected. If last season’s AAA numbers were used, it would be near a 4.75 ERA. The improvement came from Shultz cutting his walk rate from 5.0 BB/9 to 1.3 BB/9.

The above conversion formula can help with two prospects who just got promoted.

Name: 2024 AAA xFIP, 2025 AAA xFIP
JR Ritchie: 4.32, 4.31
Connor Prielipp: 4.44, 2.96

While Prielipp has major injury concerns, I would prioritize him over Ritchie.

Dean Kremer (7): I added Kremer in every league possible and overpaid in most instances. At the time, he had the league’s highest K-BB% (33%) among all starters (min 10 IP). Since then, he’s dropped behind Matthew Boyd (34%).

To take a step forward, he’s cut the usage of his sinker and cutter and leaned into his splitter (26% SwStr%) while throwing an effective slider (29% SwStr%) more.

The major knock on him is that our STUPH models aren’t a fan with a 4.82 BotERA and 93 Pitching+. They think the splitter is a below-average pitch.

His Friday start will go a long way in determining his demand going forward.

Spencer Arrighetti (6): In my bids this past week, I prioritized Kremer over Arrighetti. On the surface, Arrighetti was doing great in AAA with a 12.6 K/9, 1.26 ERA, and 0.77 WHIP. But there was the 3.8 BB/9 and 3.87 xFIP. It wasn’t that I didn’t want to take a chance on a career 4.56 ERA pitcher; I just had him further down on my priority list.

In the majors so far, he’s been fine with a 2.45 ERA (5.16 xFIP), 1.45 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. The walks have continued (6.6 BB/9), and his WHIP is an immediate liability.

As for his talent, his fastballs are down about 0.5 mph. Additionally, he is throwing his four-seamer less often (32% to 16%) and curve more (23% to 32%). That should not be a surprise with the four-seamer having a 3% SwStr% and the curve having a 26% SwStr%.

He’s struggling to get lefties out this year with a 3% K-BB% against them and a 29% K-BB% against righties.

Chase Dollander (4): I guess the Rockies can develop a starting pitcher. There isn’t a weakness is the 24-year-old’s profile this year with a 2.88 ERA (3.00 xFIP), 1.00 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, and 53% GB%. Again, the only red mark is that he’s on the Rockies.

While adding 1 mph to his fastball has helped, the biggest change has been dropping his walk rate from 4.5 BB/9 to 2.5 B/9.

Jack Kochanowicz (4): While he has a shiny 3.10 ERA, it’s tough to buy into a breakout with a 5.3 BB/9 and 4.84 xFIP in 29 IP. He won’t be able to maintain anyting close to a .214 BABIP with a 58% GB%. His WHIP is likely to become unrosterable like last season (1.75 WHIP). Stay away.

Relievers: I hate this season’s closer shuffle, and it is not close to being done. One note on it, desperate managers seem to be dropping some solid starting pitchers and hitters. Make sure to check for solid waiver wire options.

Caleb Thielbar (7): A two-to-three-week replacement while Daniel Palencia is on the IL. A nice strikeout pitcher, but a 4.2 BB/9 might come back to haunt him. I didn’t come close to adding him for the short time frame.

Brad Keller (7): Another solid short-term closer replacement with Jhoan Duran out for at least a couple of weeks. Keller has been solid since becoming a reliever (career 3.31 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.25 WHIP) and will be a nice add for those who paid up. The $31 value was more than reasonable, but going $113 was higher than I was comfortable with.

Enyel De Los Santos (7): The 30-year-old righty seems to be the only arm in Houston’s bullpen who wants to close. He’s a below-average reliever, but that’s better than anyone else in that bullpen. I think his staying power could be longer than the previous two pitchers, with all the setbacks to Josh Hader.

Louis Varland (7): Even though Varland didn’t have the closer’s role this past weekend, I prioritized him because he could be the closer all year if/when Jeff Hoffman fails. Well, the “when” happened, and Varland could be the team’s closer after some comments from the team.

Following another rough outing on Tuesday night, Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that the club will “re-evaluate” Jeff Hoffman’s role as the team’s closer.

“He’s going through it, obviously, a little bit,” Schneider said on Wednesday before the team’s 7-3 loss to the Angels. “So we’ll see. Use the off-day to talk about it with him.”

Varland has been lights out this season with a 0.00 ERA (1.44 xFIP), 0.85 WHIP, and 13.2 K/9.

Alex Vesia (4): While the left-handed Vesia has two Saves (and three Holds), I’m betting that he’s sharing the role with the right-handed Tanner Scott (0.93 ERA, 8.4 K/9). Vesia has been his normal elite self this season, by not allowing a run yet and striking out over 10 batters per nine innings pitched.