The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Strategy Section

• Personal goals for 2023
• How the projections are handling the new rule changes
• Stolen bases increase for 2023
• Starting pitcher strategy for 2023
  • The 3 1A Strategy
• Justin Verlander
• Tyler Glasnow
• Corner Infielders
  • Players who will gain value from switching teams / change of scenery
  • Definition of a “shallow” position
  • Third Base strategy for 2023
  • The corner infield conundrum

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Players

• Corner Infielders
  • Christian Walker
  • Rowdy Tellez
  • Alec Bohm
  • Ryan McMahon
  • Josh Naylor
  • Yandy Diaz
  • Wil Myers
  • Jared Walsh

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Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts!

This year to improve my prep, I am doing full projections on every position which are reflected in my ranks. My ranks will be available here on FanGraphs and daily updates and full projections will be available on the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon once I have completed them. Read the rest of this entry »

The Hot Corner is tough this year. There is a pack of stars atop the heap, but then a substantial drop-off where things completely open up. You could find yourself behind the 8-ball if you wait too long. Meanwhile, you could aim to make things worse for your leaguemates by taking some multi-eligible players and slotting them throughout your lineup.

NOTES:

The lack of premium talent at the Hot Corner makes José Ramírez a legit 1.1 consideration for me. Make no mistake, his skills alone do that, too, but there are a handful of candidates for that top spot and when trying to parse through them, his eligibility at 3B is a big selling point for me.

Manny Machado is just as rock solid as it gets and almost feels like a bit of a bargain as a wheel pick, going regularly in the 14-18 range in 15-team leagues. He has even gone as late as 20 during January which is a steal with his ironclad production and dearth of premium 3B.

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I started out wanting to see if a player stole more bases from one lineup slot compared to another one. Discussions around Trea Turner’s spot with the Phillies led me down this path. Last season, Turner had 603 PA from the 2nd and 3rd spot in the batting order and just 105 PA while leading off. He was on a 29 SB/600 PA pace from the leadoff spot and a pace of just 22 SB/600 PA from the other two. I wanted to see if the bump was normal and if not, what should I expect? What I found was a mess and don’t plan on regurgitating here. I put the “F- Around, Find Out” philosophy to work with over a day wasted to end up with three graphs and four actionable conclusions.

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Sticky metrics refer to statistics that are highly correlated from year to year. Here’s an example. Among all qualified pitchers in 2022, Jordan Montgomery ranked 11th with a 12.9% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). Bringing the innings-pitched threshold down to 150 in 2021, he ranked ninth with a career-high 13.7%:

In every season except 2018, he’s had an above-average SwStr%. Projections don’t predict SwStr%, but if they did you could imagine that Montgomery would easily be projected above 12%.

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We’ve now covered my ranks at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop, before making a stop in Splitsville last week. Let’s close our hitters out – time to hit that grass.

It’s not that the outfielders are shallow by talent but depending on your league and roster size, eventually, you’ll reach a cliff past which full-time players are few and far between. Full and part platoons start wreaking havoc on projecting final production, and while some part-timers will still end up with enough playing time to be fantasy-viable, trying to properly judge their value from week to week may be a fantasy headache some managers just may not want. Read the rest of this entry »

1/24/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

OF RANKINGS 1-30

• Return of Ronald Acuña Jr.’s power
• Julio Rodríguez’s 2H SB slowdown
• Aaron Judge as the 1.1 pick
• Moving Kyle Tucker up the batting order
• Juan Soto’s success in SD
• Injury concerns for Yordan Alvarez
• Mookie Betts remains undervalued
• Mike Trout & baked in missed time
• Is Michael Harris II overpriced?

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American League

Angels

• There is a chance that Logan O’Hoppe might start in the minors.

The real competition appears to be between Thaiss and O’Hoppe. And the Angels have to be careful about rushing a young catcher like O’Hoppe with a very bright future.

• A lineup guess of Anthony Rendon, Luis Rengifo, and Brandon Drury being full-time bats with Gio Urshela and Jared Walsh in a platoon.

The Angels have a lot of guys that can play first, second and third. Not a lot of true shortstops. And the offseason acquisitions have most likely forced defensive whiz Andrew Velazquez off the active roster. The Angels will rotate their infield quite a bit depending on matchups. The best guess for a starting infield against a righty pitcher: Rendon (3B), Renfigo (SS), Drury (2B), Walsh (1B). And against a lefty pitcher: Rendon (3B), Rengifo (SS), Urshela (2B), Drury (1B).

It’s also possible that Angels manager Phil Nevin would value Fletcher’s defense and find a way to get him a consistent starting role, especially if his bat proves to be valuable.

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The 1st & 2nd Rounds episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Phil Dussault

Strategy Section

• Draft Preparation
  • How to prepare for drafts
  • When to adjust projections
  • What news to look out for
  • Should you have a “do not draft” or “only draft from” list?
  • Should you plan draft picks for particular rounds?
    • Creating a map
    • Does it change depending upon your particular draft slot?
• Risk
  • Should you stay away from injury prone players?
    • Should you especially stay away from risky pitchers?
  • How to discount players for risk
  • Should one be super conservative in the early rounds?
  • Are leagues won by taking risks early on, middle or late in drafts?
    • At what point in the draft should you start to switch from being more conservative to seeking out more risks?
  • Types of risk that often do / do not work out
  • Pricing starting pitchers returning from injury
• FAAB
  • Which is more important – the draft or the weekly waiver wire grind?
  • How to know who to pick up each week
    • Identifying save candidates before they are closers
  • How to know who to drop each week
  • Learning from one league to the next
  • Learning fron friends
• Multi-positional players
  • Value in various fantasy formats
  • How to utilize
• Streaming pitchers
  • Should we be streaming pitchers in 2023?
  • How should one alter their draft to avoid streaming pitchers?

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

1st & 2nd Round

• Overvalued Players
• Undervalued Players
• How to value Shohei Ohtani for 2023

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Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts!

Read the rest of this entry »