2023

January 27, 2023

Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts!

This year to improve my prep, I am doing full projections on every position which are reflected in my ranks. My ranks will be available here on FanGraphs and daily updates and full projections will be available on the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon once I have completed them.

Justin Mason’s Top 150 Outfielder: 1/27/23

	NAME	TEAM	LG	ALLPOS
1	Aaron Judge	NYY	AL	OF/DH
2	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	NL	OF/DH
3	Kyle Tucker	HOU	AL	OF
4	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	AL	OF
5	Mookie Betts	LAD	NL	OF
6	Juan Soto	SD	NL	OF
7	Mike Trout	LAA	AL	OF
8	Randy Arozarena	TB	AL	OF/DH
9	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	AL	OF/DH
10	Cedric Mullins	BAL	AL	OF
11	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	NL	OF
12	Michael Harris II	ATL	NL	OF
13	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	NL	OF
14	George Springer	TOR	AL	OF/DH
15	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	NL	OF
16	Starling Marte	NYM	NL	OF
17	Luis Robert	CHW	AL	OF
18	Adolis Garcia	TEX	AL	OF/DH
19	Eloy Jimenez	CHW	AL	OF/DH
20	Christian Yelich	MIL	NL	OF/DH
21	Teoscar Hernandez	SEA	AL	OF
22	Steven Kwan	CLE	AL	OF
23	Taylor Ward	LAA	AL	OF
24	Anthony Santander	BAL	AL	OF/DH
25	Corbin Carroll	ARI	NL	OF
26	Ian Happ	CHC	NL	OF
27	Jake McCarthy	ARI	NL	OF
28	Tyler O’Neill	STL	NL	OF
29	Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	AL	OF/DH
30	Cody Bellinger	CHC	NL	OF
31	Joey Meneses	WAS	NL	1B/OF
32	Andrew Vaughn	CHW	AL	1B/OF/DH
33	Wil Myers	CIN	NL	1B/OF
34	Kris Bryant	COL	NL	OF
35	Seth Brown	OAK	AL	1B/OF
36	Hunter Renfroe	LAA	AL	OF
37	Nick Castellanos	PHI	NL	OF
38	Alex Verdugo	BOS	AL	OF
39	Mitch Haniger	SF	NL	OF
40	Jorge Soler	MIA	NL	OF
41	Lars Nootbaar	STL	NL	OF
42	Byron Buxton	MIN	AL	OF/DH
43	Randal Grichuk	COL	NL	OF
44	Masataka Yoshida	BOS	AL	OF
45	Gavin Lux	LAD	NL	2B/OF
46	Andrew Benintendi	CHW	AL	OF
47	TJ Friedl	CIN	NL	OF
48	Oscar Gonzalez	CLE	AL	OF
49	Jeff McNeil	NYM	NL	2B/OF
50	Joc Pederson	SF	NL	OF
51	Riley Greene	DET	AL	OF
52	Avisail Garcia	MIA	NL	OF
53	Edward Olivares	KC	AL	OF
54	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	NL	OF
55	Brendan Donovan	STL	NL	2B/3B/OF
56	Trey Mancini	CHC	NL	1B/OF/DH
57	Jake Fraley	CIN	NL	OF
58	Charlie Blackmon	COL	NL	OF/DH
59	Leody Taveras	TEX	AL	OF
60	Manuel Margot	TB	AL	OF
61	Max Kepler	MIN	AL	OF
62	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	NL	OF/DH
63	Brandon Marsh	PHI	NL	OF
64	Chris Taylor	LAD	NL	2B/OF
65	Jurickson Profar	N/A	N/A	OF
66	Mike Yastrzemski	SF	NL	OF
67	Kyle Isbel	KC	AL	OF
68	Harrison Bader	NYY	AL	OF
69	Lane Thomas	WAS	NL	OF
70	A.J. Pollock	CHW	AL	OF
71	Esteury Ruiz	OAK	AL	OF
72	Austin Hays	BAL	AL	OF
73	Lourdes Gurriel	ARI	NL	OF
74	Trent Grisham	SD	NL	OF
75	Myles Straw	CLE	AL	OF
76	Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	NL	OF
77	Michael Conforto	SF	NL	OF
78	Jarred Kelenic	SEA	AL	OF
79	Mark Canha	NYM	NL	OF
80	Jesse Winker	MIL	NL	OF
81	Nick Senzel	CIN	NL	OF
82	Akil Baddoo	DET	AL	OF
83	Marcell Ozuna	ATL	NL	OF/DH
84	Whit Merrifield	TOR	AL	2B/OF
85	Brian Anderson	MIL	NL	3B/OF
86	Ramon Laureano	OAK	AL	OF
87	Chas McCormick	HOU	AL	OF
88	Harold Ramirez	TB	AL	1B/OF/DH
89	Tommy Pham	NYM	NL	OF
90	Drew Waters	KC	AL	OF
91	Adam Duvall	BOS	AL	OF
92	Enrique Hernandez	BOS	AL	OF
93	Austin Meadows	DET	AL	OF
94	Miguel Andujar	PIT	NL	OF
95	David Peralta	N/A	N/A	OF
96	Garrett Mitchell	MIL	NL	OF
97	Jack Suwinski	PIT	NL	OF
98	Christopher Morel	CHC	NL	2B/OF
99	Victor Robles	WAS	NL	OF
100	Oscar Colas	CHW	AL	OF
101	James Outman	LAD	NL	OF
102	Juan Yepez	STL	NL	OF
103	Gavin Sheets	CHW	AL	OF
104	Kerry Carpenter	DET	AL	OF
105	Michael Brantley	HOU	AL	OF/DH
106	Tyrone Taylor	MIL	NL	OF
107	Yonathan Daza	COL	NL	OF
108	Jose Siri	TB	AL	OF
109	Adam Frazier	BAL	AL	2B/OF
110	Cal Mitchell	PIT	NL	OF
111	Tony Kemp	OAK	AL	2B/OF
112	Dylan Moore	SEA	AL	SS/OF
113	Tyler Naquin	N/A	N/A	OF
114	Aaron Hicks	NYY	AL	OF
115	Trayce Thompson	SD	NL	OF
116	Hunter Dozier	KC	AL	1B/3B/OF/DH
117	Estevan Florial	NYY	AL	OF
118	Ji-Hwan Bae	PIT	NL	OF
119	Josh Smith	TEX	AL	3B/OF
120	Joey Gallo	MIN	AL	OF
121	Mauricio Dubon	HOU	AL	SS/OF
122	Eddie Rosario	ATL	NL	OF
123	Oswaldo Cabrera	NYY	AL	OF
124	Nelson Velazquez	CHC	NL	OF
125	Jose Azocar	SD	NL	OF
126	Dylan Carlson	STL	NL	OF
127	Aledmys Diaz	OAK	AL	2B/OF
128	Jo Adell	LAA	AL	OF
129	Jarren Duran	BOS	AL	OF
130	Mickey Moniak	LAA	AL	OF
131	Austin Slater	SF	NL	OF
132	Sam Haggerty	SEA	AL	OF
133	Will Brennan	CLE	AL	OF
134	Kevin Kiermaier	TOR	AL	OF
135	Luis Gonzalez	SF	NL	OF
136	Bubba Thompson	TEX	AL	OF
137	Conner Capel	OAK	AL	OF
138	Trevor Larnach	MIN	AL	OF
139	Brad Miller	TEX	AL	3B/OF/DH
140	Robbie Grossman	N/A	N/A	OF
141	Matt Vierling	PHI	NL	OF
142	Kyle Stowers	BAL	AL	OF
143	Nick Maton	PHI	NL	OF
144	Nick Gordon	MIN	AL	2B/OF
145	Rafael Ortega	N/A	N/A	OF/DH
146	Alex Call	WAS	NL	OF
147	Chad Pinder	N/A	N/A	OF
148	LaMonte Wade	SF	NL	1B/OF
149	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	AL	OF
150	Michael Taylor	KC	AL	OF

Position eligibility is based on 20 games played in 2022.
Blue denotes the beginning of a tier.

Thoughts on Tier 1

I think you can make an argument for any of these players to be in any order. They all have questions that give them some sort of risk.

Judge’s risk comes down to health. He has had two straight healthy seasons which gives me some hope that he can continue to stay on the field, but I have had a hard time pulling the trigger on him. I will say, I feel like I gave him a fairly conservative projection, but he still ended up #1 in the outfield and #3 overall.

Health and the power regression last season are the reasons that Acuna is risky. I am not super worried about either to be honest and he is definitely in consideration for me if I have a top five pick.

I think the only real issue with Tucker is the fact the Astros continue to bat him sixth in the order. That being said, he is the safest of the elite tier and likely ends up on more of my teams than any of the others because of his safety.

Rodriguez has regression risk coming into his second season as well as the fear that his lack of stolen bases in the second half carry over to 2023. The upside is tantalizing so I won’t argue with anyone putting him #1.

Thoughts on Tier 2

I don’t know if there is any player I feel better about in the back half of the first round than Mookie Betts. I do worry a little bit about the Dodgers lineup as a whole but the top half of the lineup is still pretty strong.

Soto should rebound in full season in San Diego and that lineup looks incredibly strong once they get Tatis back. A very safe floor which is what I am looking for at the top of a draft.

One day we may get a full season of Mike Trout, but it has been a while since we have seen 500 plate appearances in a season.

I don’t know why people are so low on Arozarena. Only two players went 20/30 last season, Randy Arozarena and Bobby Witt Jr. One is going in the first round and one is going in the third round.

I know people are going to be pissed about Yordan being so low, but he gets hurt by the lack of stolen bases and I do worry about his knees becoming an issue at some point. Unlike a lot of the guys in this tier, I don’t feel comfortable projecting him for 600 plate appearances.

I love Cedric Mullins. That is all.

Schwarber’s massive season was overshadowed by Aaron Judge being superhuman in 2022. Not only did he hit a ton of home runs, but he even stole 10 bases. He even got a bit unlucky with his BABIP and could see his average come up a little.

Thought on Tier 3

Ok, so the next guy I will be screamed at about is Michael Harris II, but I have some concerns. First, he swings outside the zone way too much and the swinging strike rate is indicative of someone that is going to have a higher strikeout rate. Also, the launch angle is pretty concerning considering he has always had a high ground ball rate. I still think he will be very good, just not worthy of a second round pick.

Man, even I am surprised by how high I have Suzuki. He will continue to be a hot name in drafts because I am not alone in my love for him. In the second half, he was the only player in baseball with a top 25 barrel percentage and top 25 zone contact. I am going to be drafting a lot of him.

Springer quietly had a fantastic season and readded the speed component to his game. Health is always a concern for him but I am excited for him in that Toronto lineup and with new park dimensions.

Why do people hate Bryan Reynolds? I get that he isn’t the flashiest of players and the Pirates aren’t good, but the lineup is slowly getting better around him and there is a really good chance he ends up being traded to a better team and park.

Marte is an injury risk, but if he can get back to 130 games then he is a good bet to rebound in the speed department, making him a really nice value at the draft table.

Thoughts on Tier 4

Luis Robert Jr. has massive upside, but there are real concerns about his ability to stay on the field. He has yet to play 100 games in the Majors and while he hits the ball hard, his launch angle drop concerns me as well.

Adolis Garcia has a ton of power and speed, but man, the plate skills are very scary. That being said, the market hasn’t gone crazy over him and his defense will keep him on the field even during cold stretches. I think the average takes a step back but there is still a lot of homers and stolen bases to be had.

Eloy’s value is tied to health. I hate the fact that the White Sox are giving him a shot to play the field and not just DHing him. That being said, he could easily be two tiers higher if he gets 600 plate appearances.

Kwan’s ability to make contact is unbelievable. Add in that he walks and steals bases makes him such a safe pick for a guy that doesn’t have much power.

Ward is going to be another very popular player as drafts approach because of plate skills and his potential to lead off for an Angels offense that looks really nice on paper. I hope the price doesn’t get out of control.

Thoughts on Tier 5

Corbin Carroll was one of the hardest players to do projections on in the outfield. There is a ton of speed, he could lead off, he has a good hit tool, plays great defense, and there is some pop in the bat. So what could go wrong? In his small MLB sample, he had a low launch angle which backs up a lot of what we saw in the minors. He also didn’t show the good hit tool we saw in the minors. I think there is definitely going to be a good amount of stolen bases, but if he platoons, it could really limit the upside which is what we don’t want to see on an upside play.

Jake McCarthy is really intriguing after he won people leagues in the second half. I definitely think the power won’t repeat and I think he could have some average regression, but he could steal an obscene amount of bases if he can get on base enough. It sounds like he will get the first opportunity to play but it is still a pretty crowded outfield even after the Varsho trade.

I really love Tyler O’Neill but I feel less comfortable with him with his health. If he is healthy in spring, I could definitely move him up some.

Thoughts on Tier 6

Will we ever see the MVP version of Cody Bellinger again? I don’t think anyone knows, but the price is finally low enough that it is worth taking a gamble on, especially now that he is on the run happy Cubs.

Bryant and Stanton still have health concerns, but I like the discount on both. If Bryant looks healthy in spring, he could skyrocket in the ADP just like he did when he signed in Colorado last year.

I am pretty concerned that we won’t see a big bounceback with Nick Castellanos. I think he gets some of the power back, but I just don’t know that he is a 30 homer bat at this point.

Verdugo is about as unsexy as can be, but he is just a fantastic accumulator.

Thoughts on Tier 7

I will not be alone in my Nootbaar love this year and I hope the ADP doesn’t get out of control. I think there is a really good chance he hits high up in this lineup which is among the best in baseball and is an everyday player. He is already one of my most rostered players this year.

Done yelling about Yordan and Harris? Ok, now catch your breath and begin screaming about Buxton being so low. The last time he had 400 plate appearances in the Majors was 2017 and while the upside is amazing, the floor is really low. In shallow leagues, take the gamble. In deeper ones, he is off my board.

Especially if you can use Grichuk just at home and avoid his road work, he is a fantastic fantasy option. Even without that ability, he is really interesting after his big second half rebound.

Yoshida is so hard to project but I don’t think he is a league winner. I kind of look at him as a diet-Verdugo.

TJ Friedl looks like he could be the lead off guy in Cincinnati. There is a good hit tool with speed and enough pop to play in Great American Ballpark to be a really interesting fantasy player. He will be in my “This Year’s Cedric Mullins” article.

Thoughts on Tier 8

Oscar Gonzalez was a really fun story and he does hit the ball really hard, but the low launch angle needs to be raised for him to be a real power source. I also think his aggressiveness is going to become a real issue for the average at some point.

Riley Greene should play a lot but I don’t know if we see fantasy goodness from him this season.

Oliveras should finally play full time and I am really excited to see if he can turn into the player he flashed in the minor leagues. Right now I am tempering my expectations.

I am happy that Nimmo got paid, but there is no way I believe that he can rack up the amount of plate appearances he did last year. Even if he does, it is with such little speed and power that I won’t regret fading him if he does play all year.

Thoughts on Tier 9

If Fraley stays healthy and plays, he could be a really big bargain at the draft table. I am willing to take the gamble.

I think that the Texas outfield outside of Adolis Garcia is so bad that Leody Taveras may get a real shot to play this year. His defense is good enough to help him stick. If he does, 20-30 stolen bases are in play.

If Margot can stay healthy, he could threaten 30 stolen bases and be a real bargain.

I love Max Kepler, but I almost wish he would get traded to a better situation.

With Schwarber and Castellanos in the outfield, the Phillies are likely going to give Brandon Marsh a lot of playing time because of his defense. He showed better contact skills after the trade and I think there is some pop and a good amount of speed. Am I Charlie Brown kicking the football? Probably.

Kyle Isbel should play now that Kansas City keeps trading away players. He could be a deep league accumulator.

Ok, are you done yelling at me? No? Well, Harrison Bader this low will probably give you a stroke then. I could definitely see him going 15/20 or even 15/30 this season, but he needs to play to do that. However, he has never reached 450 plate appearances and I don’t know how you can project him to get to 500.

Esteury Ruiz could be a really nice source of cheap speed and he could play a lot considering Oakland is terrible. He could also be nothing because he doesn’t make enough contact.

Thoughts on the Rest

I don’t know what to do with Alex Kirilloff, Michael Brantley, Nick Senzel, Michael Conforto, Austin Meadows, or Jesse Winker because of their health. Once I see them in spring, I could definitely move them up.

I am not ready to give up on Jarred Kelenic. He has dominated the minors and I truly believe that he can figure it out at the Major League level. I don’t think his struggles are a skill issue, but a mental block. I am betting on the talent.

Drew Waters has amazing upside, but the strikeouts are scary.

Bubba Thompson has a ton of stolen base upside, but you can’t steal first base and that is a problem with his complete lack of contact ability.

Garrett Mitchell has some really interesting upside, but I am worried he won’t get the opportunity.

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lexomatic

1 year ago

I’m not seeing Varsho anywhere except in mentioning McCarthy

Justin MasonMember

Reply to lexomatic

That because as a catcher eligible player, you should never play him in the outfield unless you are completely desperate.