Imagine Thinking Hitter Splits Matter

Wait a tick – this can’t be right. We’ve been trucking right along with our positional reviews, taking a twisted path around the horn, going from catcher, to first base, third base, shortstop, and second base, most recently. Clearly, it’s time for the outfielders, yeah?

Afraid not, mon freres. Heading into the positional review for outfielders, I already knew we’d be forced to dip into a ton of platoon talk, as swapping players in and out according to pitcher handedness continues to be a plague across the fantasy baseball landscape.

This pestilence seems most pervasive in the outfield, in regard to our fantasy teams, with the fear that this player, or that one, will suddenly be sitting versus this hand, or that one, leaving us to find another full-time option or scrambling on the wire from week to week to find someone to swap in for your boy because he’s facing a lefty in four of six games. Or, being forced to throw someone else back to the wire because they’re apparently only facing lefties now. Super annoying.

So, before we get the outfielder’s review, let’s give splits and platoons their own spotlight and see how we can best gain an edge while also trying to limit our in-season headaches.

But Nicklaus! Can’t we just assume managers will mostly keep the rotten bats on the bench and/or as fill-in platoon buddies? Sure, maybe if we were playing MLB The Show but in MLB The Reality, some players will garner more playing time than their bats would appear to justify*. And while these playing-time vampires may not themselves become fantasy viable with extra PT, they’re always ready to suck the life out of those who could be.

*For further reading, please refer to the “Jorge Mateo will be benched any day now” discourse that reconvened bi-weekly in 2022

Defense, contracts, manager history, comfortability, or maybe just straight gut feelings – these are all things that might ultimately get baked into the starting time pie. And whether we like it, or not, managers aren’t always going to make decisions like we would, trying only to maximize offense.

We can rent our clothes with tears of anguish, cursing a manager’s name because they just refuse to start who they’re supposed to. Or, we can accept that which we cannot control, anticipate the best we can, and try to gain edges wherever possible.

No more philosophy, let’s see who walked around all lopsided last season. Here are all the hitters inside the top 450 ADP on NFBC, along with their wOBA/xwOBA vs each hand in 2022. Also included are the differences between the two, subtracting LHP from RHP.

It’s the Glove, Silly

When hunting playing-time vampires, it’s best to start with slick gloves:

Harrison Bader, NYY – Don’t worry, given health, Bader is going to play, as his glove is as golden as those resplendent bouncing curls hanging about his head*. But someone is going to need to explain to me, real slow like, how his near-150 ADP makes sense. He’s decent against righties, bad against lefties, never stays healthy, and needs a mostly full-time role to compile enough R+RBI to be worth it.

*Or at least it was until New York’s silly appearance rules Delilah’d them down to a mere mortal’s. Have we not yet learned anything from Samson?

Actually, I take back my explanation request – I think we already have an answer. Bader’s been Frankensteined by his would-be drafters.

As in, taking his 16 HR in 401 PA from 2021 and 17 SB in 313 PA from 2022 and hopecasting a lightning strike that turns him into a 20 HR/25 SB guy over a full season.

Even in the Yankee Stadium bandbox, Bader’s 3.4 Brl%, 88 mph Air% EV, and 15% Air% (100+ mph) tell me reaching 15 HR again could be a stretch. And not to belabor the point but I expect stolen bases to be devalued under the new rules, so even if Bader’s speed keeps a pile of SBs on the table, they won’t be worth as much.

If Bader was closer to his 235 ADP from last season, sure, totally worth a flier. But being drafted in the same range as guys like Ian Happ and Brandon Nimmo, it’ll be a big pass for me.

But if Bader’s bat and/or health does cost him playing time, Estevan Florial is an interesting name to keep an eye on. Florial is 25 years old, out of options, and in 101 games at Triple-A last season he slashed .283/.368/.481, with 15 HR and 39 SB. Now, that’s a spicy line.

Myles Straw, CLE – Do you know what MLB managers love? An elite centerfielder. Do you know what they love less (some might say not at all)? What fantasy players think about how their elite centerfielders hit.

Straw is a noodle-batted, speed-only play, and one who might not even be worth a shot as a one-trick pony for your roster considering how much the new rules are likely to water down the value of individual stolen base contributions. But he’s also probably going to play a decent chunk of time, clogging up the outfield for the other more fantasy-relevant players you’d rather have out there.

Like Will Brennan, who slashed .316/.367/.471 at Triple-A last season, with 9 HR and 15 SB, and .357/.400/.500 in a 45 PA cup of coffee in the majors. But the left-handed Brennan also posted a .647 OPS vs LHP at Double-A and Triple-A last season and a .718 OPS in 2021 at High-A and Double-A, so let’s not get carried away with assuming a full-time role is in his near-future.

Michael A. Taylor/Nicky Lopez, KC – If you think this light-hitting duo is just going to head to the bench in favor of more exciting Royals prospects, I’d say you’re not truly appreciating the Mike Matheny experience. Yeah, I’d rather have Michael Massey (or even Nate Eaton) in the lineup right away, too, but I’m not holding my breath until we see if Matt Quatraro bucks Matheny’s previously established trend.

Here’s the good news, though – right now, somewhere in the world, Adalberto Mondesi might already be injuring himself. Whether walking the dog, shopping for groceries, or just getting gas, at literally any moment, Mondesi could go down in a snipered heap. And just like that, Quatraro would be forced to make it Massey-time, even if every fiber of his new Royal  mind rebels against it.

Miguel Rojas, LAD – Do you hear that? That’s the sound of the last Gavin Lux stans weeping gently, as I expect Lux’s playing time to bear the brunt of the LA’s recent acquisition. For his career, Lux has a .265 wOBA, .273 xwOBA, and a .587 OPS vs LHP, while Rojas was at least decent against them up until last year’s all-around disaster.

Looking at a Dodgers lineup that’s not nearly as good as I expected it to be heading into the offseason, it seems to me that Chris Taylor, James Outman, and Miguel Vargas, along with Lux and Rojas, are going to be doing a merry-go-round of playing time until someone clearly asserts themselves. And I’m just not sure when (or if) any of them will, making them draft poison for me.

Sophomore Split-ssues?

There are eight second-year players going in the first 100 picks but five came with big struggles vs LHP in 2022:

First Cedric, now Michael Harris II; it’s clear that rolling with a II may directly correlate with struggling against left-handed pitchers. It’s science.

And scientifically speaking, Harris number two was buh-buh ba-aad vs LHP, slashing .238/.284/.365 over 135 PA, with a .285 wOBA and .229 xwOBA, 30% K%, and 5% BB%. And while he did rise from a .261 wOBA in the first half (53 PA) to a .300 wOBA in the second half (82 PA), his xwOBA barely budged, posting a .229 xwOBA and .230 xwOBA.

Here’s a big difference, though, between Harris and other players we’ll discuss – Atlanta hasn’t yet shown any signs of actually caring. Called up on May 28th, Harris started 116 of Atlanta’s final 118 games in the regular season, regardless of starting pitcher handedness. Probably because the eventual NL ROY slashed .297/.339/.514 over 441 PA, with 19 HR and 20 SB. Oh, and finished 10th-highest in OAA among qualified centerfielders.

And while his results didn’t improve vs LHP, his eye may have started to, with his Chase% leveling off after peaking in July and his Chase Whiff% dropping more consistently:

Harris also ended his season with increased aggression and contact in the strike zone, rarely a bad thing:

My only worry in regard to Harris is that he might not always be batting in that prime second spot in Atlanta’s lineup, at least against left-handers, with Ozzie Albies waiting in the wings to reclaim his spot. But even in a worst-case scenario where Albies takes back over the two-hole against both hands and Harris again spends the year in the bottom half of the order, he’s still in an elite lineup with a fantasy categorical profile that’s as sweet as anyone.

Do we really need to cover Oneil Cruz vs LHP again? To be fair, the signing of Andrew McCutchen greatly improves the Pittsburgh lineup (though, a fairly low bar) and if no one bites on the king’s ransom that the Pirates want for Bryan Reynolds, the top half could be moderately decent, making me more bullish on Cruz’s R+RBI potential.

But I still think Cruz’s best shot at earning his draft price will be the Pirates implementing Toronto’s “strategy” from last year. Just face the fewest left-handers in baseball! The Blue Jays had the 7th-most PAs overall in 2022 but finished dead last in both total and percent of PAs vs LHP. Easy-peasy, Pirates; just do that.

Corbin Carroll certainly struggled mightily vs LHP but the sample at the majors is minuscule (30 PA). And when adding in the 102 PA vs LHP he got in the minors before getting called up, things aren’t nearly as ugly, with his total slash line across all levels last year coming in at .256/.341/.436.

Unfortunately, between a 2021 injury and a 2020 pandemic, our numbers for Carroll vs LHP pretty much begin and end with 2022. The good news, though, is that the questions about playing time in Arizona’s outfield have greatly cleared up with the trade of Dalton Varsho. I’m still not a big fan of his draft price but a stronger probability of an everyday role has definitely raised his stock.

Jeremy Peña may have moved up to #2 on my personal top-five list of favorite Peña’s (passing Tony but still trailing Michael) but it feels more and more like he’s staring down the pipe of a fantasy sophomore slump.

I mean, that .287 wOBA and 86 wRC+ in the second half was absolutely brutal, made more by his struggles vs RHP. Peña finished with a .294 wOBA (.293 xwOBA) vs RHP in 2023 but dropped from a .319 wOBA (.267 xwOBA) in the first half, to a .322 wOBA (.263 xwOBA). And the last I remember, there are a lot more RHPs than LHPs in MLB.

Counterpoint: Peña absolutely smashed all fools in the Astros World Series run, regardless of hand, including 4 HR in 61 PA:

Counter-counter point: Peña ran a .410 BABIP and 31% HR/FB% (.298 BABIP and 17% HR/FB% in the regular season) and two of the home runs were off the ghosts of Frankie Montas and Noah Syndergaard, so they only count half.

Counter counter-counter point: One of the other homers was off Nestor Cortes, which obviously counts triple.

Luckily, Peña is excellent on defense (7 OAA in 2022) and has no real competition for his job, as Mauricio Dubón is currently the backup. But with no other true shortstops on their 40-man, it’ll be interesting to see how the always-in-win-now mode Astros will handle things if Peña continues to struggle vs RHP and starts his first half of 2023 as he ended 2022.

Count me as someone who thinks Adley Rutschman is the real deal and who isn’t going to stress about any spots of rookie struggles, even if he did slash a brutal .173/.287/.265 over 115 PA vs LHP in 2022.

Rutschman is a switch-hitting catcher with a special hit tool and one that never set off split alarms in the minors. In fact, he smashed lefties in his last real MiLB go-round. Between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021 (166 PA), he slashed .350/.439/.621, with a 1.060 OPS that was over 200 points higher than against RHP.

Not only will Rutschman’s playing time not be affected by starting pitcher handedness, but the Orioles have also clearly signaled they’re looking to keep him in the lineup as often as possible, supplanting his catching duties with time at DH, or occasionally first base.

With piles of PAs and production, I’m preparing for a Summer of Adley.

Well, I suppose we might as well stay in Baltimore. We’ve also already talked about Gunnar Henderson and his struggles vs LHP both in the majors and minors but unlike fellow struggler, Oneil Cruz, I’m not sure we should automatically just assume he’ll be rolled out as a total full-timer.

But it’s not even necessarily about Henderson; there are just simply a lot of mouths to feed in Charm City, as things were already crowded but the addition of Adam Frazier made it even more so. And while many of them have good gloves, most also have an issue with one hand or the other.

Or both (cough-Jorge Mateo, cough-cough):

And for a quick defensive roundup, here’s how the current Orioles have fared by position in 2021-2022 by OAA (min 20 attempts):

I expect there to be a whole lot of mixing and matching in Baltimore next year, and there’s a real possibility Henderson gets a chunk of playing time vampired away. And even if it doesn’t end up dragging his overall fantasy value way down, it might make rostering him a lot more annoying during left-handed heavy weeks, particularly in H2H formats.

Again, this is nothing against Henderson. But frankly, I’m just becoming less and less keen to invest heavily in Baltimore hitters, besides Rutschman and Anthony Santander. There are just too many questions currently about splits/playing time/etc for me to not wonder how high their fantasy headache factor might go.

The Mullins Question

As in, given his top-50 price and how much he started getting sat against left-handers last summer, will the struggles of Cedric Mullins II turn into a 2023 fantasy liability?

In 2021, 36% of Mullins’s PAs came against left-handers but that dropped to 29% in 2022 but some of that is team context. The Orioles faced fewer LHP than they did in 2021 and Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Jorge Mateo also saw similar decreases. However, unlike them, Mullins also saw the team’s biggest dip from half to half, with his PA% vs LHP dropping from 35% to 21%.

And it wasn’t by accident.

During April and May, Baltimore faced 20 left-handed starters, with Mullins starting all but three. Aa-aand then?

That’s dicey. But dicier still is that the two players spelling him more as the season went on, can actually hit left-handers. Well, kind of. Ok, fine! Averagely…at best…But still!

Okay, so we have a player losing more and more playing time versus a certain-handed pitcher, with other options on his team hitting said hand much better. Uh-oh, pals – that sounds like a recipe for some fantasy-value wrecking platoonery.

Here’s the good news; Mullins is a really good centerfielder, finishing in the top five in OAA the past two seasons, and was a Gold Glove finalist last year. Hays and McKenna? Not so much.

And not for nothing but when you’re a great fielder like Mullins you’re also going to pinch-hit plenty. That might sound negligible but of the 13 games he didn’t start (11 vs LHP), Mullins pinch-hit in eight of them (picking up multiple plate appearances five times) for a total of 13 PA. Sure, it’s just 13 PA but I’d rather think of them as three games that cancel out three of the times he got benched against a lefty. Always half full, kids!

Also – and hear me out – maybe Mullins improves enough that he won’t get sat as much vs LHP? After all, it wasn’t that long ago that he slashed .277/.337/.451 over 247 PA vs LHP, with a .339 wOBA and 9 HR – all the way back in the year 2021. And even if he can’t turn back the clock that far, Mullins should also be helped out by the new rules against shifting. Last season, he had 56 PA facing a left-hander and a full shift, slashing .164/.179/.273, with a .205 BABIP.

I’m not banking on the ~675 PA he’s racked up in each of the past two seasons; 625-650 PA seems like a safer bet. But Mullins’s fantasy skill set can help him still earn his draft cost even if he’s not an absolute everyday player, as he could still garner over 45 HR+SB. But do be aware of the risks he’ll come packaged with.