Archive for Featured

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• SFG switched from Roupp to Webb, nothing changes on our end. In fact, I’m more confident in Webb than Roupp.

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Every year it seems a handful of players go on a September heater and change the destiny of their fantasy teams. Some of those players are flashes-in-the-pan, but some have staying power. Last year’s class of league winners did produce some solid breakouts, with Ben Rice leading the charge, and Iván Herrera and Daylen Lile not far behind. For players like Michael Busch and Jo Adell, strong seasons were capped off by big power outputs to end the year, helping us believe in their power carrying over to this season.

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Plenty of hitters increased their barrel rate per plate appearance by 3 points or more since July 1, even if we limit ourselves to hitters with 50+ plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, these hitters with higher barrel rates have improved their 90th-percentile exit velocity (EV90) and expected batting average (xBA).

The top barrel rate risers include Andrés Chaparro, Christian Yelich, Coby Mayo, Drew Gilbert, Heriberto Hernández, Lane Thomas, Luis García Jr., Luis Robert Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Rhys Hoskins, Samuel Basallo, Spencer Jones, Tim Tawa, and Tyrone Taylor.

The chart below the barrel rate difference in the rightmost column. The first three columns are numbers since July 1; the next three are the numbers from before July.

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PICKLE!

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• C’mon baseball, let something play out exactly like it should. Let us see Williams strike out 20 Angels on Tuesday! He’s running a 40% K rate in the L30 days and 32% for the year while LAA’s 25% team K rate is tied for the highest in the league.
• King is getting PIT at a perfect time with their normally righty-mashing offense in a lull, sitting just 21st in wOBA over the L30 days. King has run an essentially neutral split this year (.004 pts of OPS difference favoring his vR work) so the lefty-heavy Pirates lineup doesn’t threaten him like it does so many other righties this year.
• I still can’t envision myself benching Skenes for fear of missing of a gem. By the same token, I can’t keep banging my head against the wall and leaving him top 3 in the face of a 6.59 ERA/1.68 WHIP/17% K-BB in his L5 starts. The funny thing is that 17% K-BB is still pretty good and a level many pitchers would strive for during their hot streaks. And yet, when the bar is set at a career 24% level, it is still disappointing to see even an above average mark like 17% (league avg. for SPs is 14%). Reminder that he won three straight with a 2.45 ERA/1.22 WHIP/21% K-BB right before this streak. Yes, the 1.22 WHIP was indicative that he wasn’t back back but his good starts are still useful for anyone rostering him.
• I’ve grown so comfortable with Thornton so quickly that I might be overrating him a touch. I’m still good running him anywhere even in a tough MIL start, but he should probably be a bit lower in the 3-x ranks thanks to relatively modest K% and K-BB% rates.
• Jobe has already shown the volatility of returning from TJ – elite in the first start, a disaster inning unraveled the second start, and then a solid rebound in the third start, though still 3 BB showing the spotty command and control which is a TJ Returner hallmark. The upside keeps him a 3-x reco, but any given start can be a crashout for him which is just part of the deal with TJRs.
• You don’t have to be deep into the second- and third-level stats to realize Ureña is running hot with his 2.80 ERA. The 1.24 WHIP and 12% BB (which are, of course, related) make it tough to maintain such a low mark, but he is helping himself survive the control with exceptional hit and HR suppression (.197 AVG, 0.56 HR9). The cold water there is that sustaining Top 10 BABIP and HR/FB rates isn’t easy, especially with an average 23% K%. Add it all up and he’s walking a bit of tightrope as the 4.42 SIERA preaches some caution, but I don’t think the concerns rise to level of benching him. I’m sure some 10-team rotations are deep enough to not need him, but getting him out of a 12- or 15-team rotation seems remarkably difficult barring some unexpected depth.
• I did struggle keeping Kirby at 3-x given his season. I’m a longtime fan and want to believe this is a blip year, but last year was supposed to be the blip year. In fact, his ERA is actually a click better this year, down from 4.21 to 4.18 but the WHIP has surged from 1.19 to an ugly 1.36. A career-high .336 BABIP is likely not entirely his fault when we see how poorly SEA ranks defensively this year: dead-last in Fielding Run Value at -42. So sure, some of these struggles probably don’t lay at Kirby’s feet directly, but he still has this same defense behind him and we might just have to downgrade him for at least the remainder of 2026. Hell, maybe just I do as I’m sure many already have. As such, he was dropped to 2-x after this post went up. Consider his ranking swapped with Bradley.
• Speaking of Bradley, I don’t love throwing anyone at ATH but they are SO beaten up with injuries that I’m making an exception. We just saw Zebby dominate (7 IP/6 H/1 ER/1 BB/7 Ks) and while that doesn’t guarantee Bradley will do the same, he’s far more trustworthy than Matthews.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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I’m pleased with how the first release of the RotoGraphs Dynasty Model went, both in the results it produced as well as the reception here on the site. I’m excited for its future use as well, because the methodology is flexible meaning there is no reason it couldn’t be expanded to reflect a deeper league or a different settings scheme. For now, though, I’m satisfied with the 12-team, 5×5 proof of concept that this run provided.

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Here is today’s chat transcript:
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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Messick’s first full season has been fantastic and getting better as it goes on. After a bit of a June Swoon (“swoon” relative to his elite level as 2 gems couldn’t completely counterbalance 3 meh outings, saddling him with a 4.26 ERA), he’s 1 of 5 arms with a sub-2.00 ERA since July 4th, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 48 IP. He has a chance for a massive week with a home date against KCR lined up for the weekend.
• Cavalli was a chic breakout pick for some this year as he was finally healthy and ready to show off his prospect pedigree off at the big league level after an interesting 10-start run down the stretch in 2025. It was a wobbly start as a meager 1.77 WHIP and 6% K-BB suggested his 4.22 ERA should be even worse after his first five starts. He then closed the month with back-to-back 10-K games which has spurred a fantastic 22-start run during which he’s posted a 3.07 ERA/1.14 WHIP/23% K-BB, only once allowing more than 3 ER (4 ER at ARI on Jun. 7). The run is currently bookended by two double-digit K outings as he’s racked up 10 and 11 Ks during 14 scoreless innings to go with initial pair that launched him in late-April. Add it all up and he’s SP28 on the year now.
• Ashcraft, Alcantara, and Gilbert have deceptively tougher matchups as SDP (3rd), BOS (1st), and PHI (6th) are all well ahead of their season ranks in wOBA over the L30 days. It doesn’t rise to the level of sitting them in any leagues but could impact your interest in them for daily fantasy games.
• After an excellent debut with CHC, Gausman hasn’t reached 5 IP in either of last two starts but this feels like a get-right spot at ARI as they are generally much better vL, though they have been rising vR of late sitting 14th over the last month.
• Klassen sputtered through two outings back in April with 5 BB in both (31% BB) and while the walks haven’t gone away in 3 August starts since returning (12%), the surface results have been incredible in spite of the wobbly control with a 1.59 ERA/1.06 WHIP in 17 IP. It’s still just a 10% K-BB, too, as we haven’t seen the Ks really dial up so just know this is still a scary start anywhere. This isn’t a fence-sit or anything, I’m fully on board running him, but we’re going in eyes wide open that if the BBs are up, he can get smoked.
• Longtime readers will remember my yearly Urquidy interest for a good bit there. He was someone Eno put on my radar and I became an instant fan of, enjoying plenty of his 2021-22 seasons while then hoping to recapture the magic around a myriad of injuries since 2023. He’s back on the radar after a brilliant start for the White Sox in Wrigley with 6 scoreless IP and 8 Ks against 0 BB. It’s one start, so let’s keep it in perspective, but it’s a 2-step v. TEX and at MIN on a team where he can earn some Ws with non-elite outings so he was a chase guy in 15s and he’s on the radar for 12s.

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Sliding out of the weekend like:

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