Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 28th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

OW: Hi Paul, Bazzana is still a FA in my 12T H2H 6×6 OBP + SLG league, would you drop McLain for him or should I hold out after his power surge last week?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding McLain. With the 2 HR game last wknd, he’s got 2 HR/4 SB so we’re getting some juice. Plus the plate skills are markedly better with a 5 pt jump in BB to 14% and improved K and SwStr rates (-4 and -2 pts, respectively, to 25% and 9%). Still holds more upside than Bazzana for me

Paul Sporer: OK that was weird, I got a question in the queue but the post wasn’t live?! Hopefully it’s up now!

Arqane: 16 team 6×6 with K:BB ratio for hitters, IP for P. I’ve gathered quite the collection of positionally flexible guys: Rafaela (remember when we thought he was a 20-20 guy?), Lee, Fernandez (SS/CI now, 1B soon), Jackson. How would you rank that group, and would you deal one for Prielipp? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Ya Rafaela has been remarkably empty AVG incl. 0-3 on the bases. His core skills aren’t off from what I was hoping for though and I think the juice will come with better base running and some HRs. This doesn’t kill 20-20, though. He went 16-20 last yr w/2 1-HR months and just 1 combined SB in those 2 months. He’s still the easy #1 of this group.

Fernandez’s flexibility is nice and lands him 2nd here espec. in a deeper league. He’s got some pop and plenty of speed if they let him run. I don’t think there’s a great hit tool so that AVG will crater when BABIP smooths out, but enough juice to be worth in a 16.

Lee is showing some surprising early pop w/5 HRs. He’s not clocking 5 per month, but another 13-15. Jeremiah Jackson’s line has come back to earth as expected with his free-swinging ways catching up to him. I’d be down to go for Prielipp. As for who, that would be more for your trade partner. I would do anyone but Ceddanne

JV: I noticed today that the OBPs by catchers this year are insanely high.  Seriously, look up nearly anyone!  They are killing it.  Raleigh, Sal Perez, and Yanier D only notable guys low in that department.  Is this random noise?  Or does this have something to do with the smaller strike zone?

Paul Sporer: BB is up 1.4% leaguewide and exactly 1% at C.

RK: With Baez now hurt, think it’s Clark time?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible! He’s acquitting himself well at AAA w/a 122 wRC+ including elite plate skills (.87 BB/K, 6% SwStr).

Colton: Needing to replace Crochet in my home points league, IP and K’s earn the most. I keep whoever I add for him for the duration of his IL stint. Do you prefer, Messick, Roupp, R. Vasquez, Clay Holmes or Dollander? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Dollander is the most talented but Coors looms and remains undefeated so we still have to be smart. I’d lay out the expected matchups of him, Messick, Roupp, and Vasquez. Holmes is out. From there, see if anyone’s expected outlook really jumps off the page and go that way. Here’s a little leaderboard of the remaining four.

Guest: Should we give up on Ryne Nelson?

Paul Sporer: Need format context on questions like this bc it really drives the answer on fringier guys like him

Cavalli: would be dropping Trevor Rogers – redraft?

Paul Sporer: Redraft but how many teams

Paul Sporer: C’mon y’all, we’re almost in May! Let’s tighten up the context on these! (I know I’m picking them and could skip, but I’d rather just let y’all know what I need to be able to help y’all)

Jakob Marsee: Do you think I’m ever going to get it together, or am I just a bad hitter with a good walk rate and wheels?

Paul Sporer: The projections were pretty light on his AVG and early on, it’s looking that way. A bit rudimentary, but looking at his two samples – he ran a .357 BABIP in last yr’s surge; has a .241 this year… smash ’em together and it’s .317 with a .254 AVG. But the logical question after that would be – does he hit the ball well enough to earn a .317 BABIP and thaaaat is the real issue. He simply does not. He hit .239 in 1733 MiLB PA and I think that alone could’ve gotten us there. I still think he’s better than a .184 AVG, but the .230 and lower projections make sense

Lance: Do you think Eury Perez can turn his season around?

Paul Sporer: Sure, he’s not that far off, assuming he’s healthy, of course. I had hopes for a leap and while I’m not saying it’s impossible after just a month, but it certainly ain’t comin w/these skills. He still has filthy stuff so any command improvements will yield big dividends. It’s been bumpy, but I’m not moving off him in any tangible way yet.

He gets PHI/BAL in his next two and if those flop he probably downshifts into more of a Team Streamer, but I’d still be reluctant to cut (obviously depending how bad these theoretical flops are, but I’m saying something like the bad ones we’ve seen already: 4 to 5+ IP with 4 ER and some HRs)

TJ: Hi, Is Devers cooked? Am considering buying low but savant #’s are all blue, would you send over Busch and M. Meyer for the opportunity that he gets back to his old self?

Paul Sporer: It’s ugly but this is a true buy low. When it’s really bad and you’re only going off the historical track record. It’s easy to buy low when every underlying indicator is screaming regression (well, easy to identify them as a buy low, harder to do so as many more fantasy mgrs recognize these signals now). I was light on Devers this year as I generally don’t like SF hitters but I’m open to buying low with a real discount. Even if he just gets back to his SF level from last yr, I’d take it – .236/.347/.460

OW: Am I wrong for wanting off of Bubba’s wild ride?

Paul Sporer: No, in fact I even acknowledged some regret of the 3-x on him in the comments of the SP chart:

I think Painter. Honestly on a deeper dive, I sorta regret 3-x on Chandler. It’s matchup driven, but when you walk guys like he does, matchup doesn’t matter bc you give the free base runners! Painter himself hasn’t exactly cooked so far including a modest start at SFG, but the extreme BB rate for Chandler just makes him more volatile

I’d still be inclined to hold on reserve in deeper leagues but moving on in shallow formats makes sense. He’s just not delivering at all right now.

Sid the Astros Kid: Hello hello, I had a question about the SP rankings. With Crochet going on IL does he get removed from the rankings and everyone gets bumped up a spot? Also, given how Schlitter’s been light’s out so far (furiously knocking on wood around me) is he the guy who takes his place in the ace tier?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I just don’t rank injured guys because there is SO much uncertainty around them that I don’t find it valuable trying to assume their value x weeks from now. I’m looking at 4-6 wk windows with these rankings. I’m less concerned about rest of season as a concept because we just don’t need to think that far ahead. Think of how many plans are already blown up on April 29th. Thinking too far in the future isn’t worth it. But ya, Crochet out. Absolutely no qualms about Schlittler ascending to the Ace tier. He has been SO electric.

Eric: Is Jackson Holliday going to recover this season or is this going to be a down year due to the injury?

Paul Sporer: The data is strong on guys getting their power back after hamate surgery, but it’s not immediate. And with already a month burned for someone who didn’t have an exploding power profile to begin with, my expectations have dimmed for his 2026.

seddrah: Is Braxton Garrett worth stashing in an 18-team league?  When is he up?

Paul Sporer: Yes on the stash. No idea on when he’s up. It’s so hard to answer those questions with anything but a pure guess that isn’t rooted in anything useful because it only takes an injury to blow up any plan. They might have benchmarks he’s supposed to be hitting in AAA before the call, we don’t know. Anyway, that’s why I don’t really do many “when are they up Qs” bc I can’t give y’all any useful info there.

Snuffy Stirnweiss: Jorge Polanco has been dreadful. Digging into the numbers it looks like he just can’t hit fastballs this year… Is he even worth one of my three IL spots in an OBP 12 tm?

Paul Sporer: No. I don’t rule out him finding fantasy viability once healthy and back, but no need to hold right now

Dr. J: Thoughts on Lambert… is this a mirage? Is there any data to support his K ratio? Would you start him in IP (1500) capped league?

Paul Sporer: It’s a mirage in that I don’t think he’ll hold a 33% K rate, but he does have an 18% SwStr underneath and that’s the single most predictive metric for Ks. So he didn’t fluke these big strikeout starts, but that doesn’t mean this is level. I’d plan for something more in the 23-25% K range. I’m running him today at BAL and we’ll see how that goes. If he drops another a huge K total, I might get frisky w/LAD & at CIN next wk… bc I’m an idiot

TJ: Eovaldi dropped in my league, I do believe he has been under performing, is he an upgrade over any of the following 3 last men on my staff: M. Meyer, M. Gore or N. Schultz on the following catgories, QS, W, K, WHIP, ERA

Paul Sporer: Any of ’em really, but I’d take him over Meyer. His underlying skills are strong enough to stay the course.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, sorry about that early blip where the post didn’t go up. I didn’t know bc there was a question in the queue somehow! Anyway, I’d normally just add some time on the backend, but I do have to cut right at 2 as I have another commitment shortly and want to take Charlotte outside before that. Thanks so much for coming out, talk to y’all next week!

Guest: I’m curious why Early was ranked so high since the location is off this season and siera doesn’t love him. Is this off past performance or am I missing something?

Paul Sporer: Sneaking this one in – fair Q. I’m staying the course for 10-12 starts before moving off my spring assessment entirely. I wasn’t judging him entirely off the blip sample where his BB was really low bc that wasn’t who he was in the minors, but the shock to me has been the lack of Ks as he’s always missed bats. I’d like to see if that can improve in these next handful of starts, plus he’s still giving us a strong ERA (however flimsy it is w/these skills) and not terrible WHIP at 1.20.

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!