Archive for Fantasy & Reality

I have been researching the 3rd and 4th starting pitching tier. I’m trying to find a few facts to help differentiate the pitchers in this group. Using five print publications, here are the projected ranges for Jharel Cotton, Robert Gsellman, and Rick Porcello

The projections agree on Porcello’s talent. They are almost eerily similar. That is not the case with the other two.

Throwing out the projected innings, which will be more of a guess with these two, the differences in the other two are eye opening. I know both Cotton and Gsellman broke out last season but I’m still a surprised by the large range.

I compared these projections to my personal projections (1/3 of each Pods Projections, our Depth Chart, and BHQ projections – each projection updates playing time which I find important). My projection sits right in the middle for the ranges.

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David Price is visiting every renowned elbow surgeon in the country getting an opinion on his elbow. Currently, the news has improved from definite Tommy John surgery to maybe not.

Price will receive opinions from both Andrews and ElAttrache in Indianapolis tomorrow, tweets Britton. (The renowned surgeons are both there for this week’s NFL combine.) Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets that Farrell said the initial MRI revealed some swelling and fluid buildup but offered “inconclusive” results overall. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Price himself is optimistic that the injury isn’t serious.

Price’s injury is this year’s second reminder (Alex Reyes) of the fragile nature of pitchers. I believe experienced owners don’t pay for pitchers because they lost a high-priced arm in the past. The memory is too strong and they don’t want to experience the situation again. A pitcher’s price must be discounted enough so the owner can stomach a lost season.

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Cody Bellinger is going to be a stud. He’s athletic and can hit the ball a mile. Just watch this home run from yesterday and enjoy.

I believe he’d be getting a ton focus if Adrian Gonzalez, and his contract, didn’t already occupy first base. The 35-year-old is still productive and can’t be benched … I think.

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Matt Moore’s New Cutter

I have seen quite a bit of love for Matt Moore this preseason linking an improvement with the Giants to reintroducing his cutter. After diving quickly into his profile, I found no reason to be optimistic.

The decision that Moore changed didn’t come from his ERA which was exactly 4.08 with both the Rays and Giants. His FIP dropping one point (4.51 to 3.53) was the reason for optimism. His xFIP (4.70 to 4.28) and SIERA (4.45 to 4.35) also dropped, but not as much. His peripheral stats were a mixed bag with his strikeout rate (7.6 K/9 to 9.1 K/9) and walk rate (2.8 BB/9 to 4.2 BB/9) both jumping while his HR/9 halved (1.4 to 0.7 HR/9).

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Projection Analysis: Yoan Moncada

Many prospect experts project Yoan Moncada to be one of the game’s few top prospects. Some have him as the top guy but his MLB playing time and production varied substantially. I found I needed a projection I felt comfortable using.  I’ll start with his playing time.

I believe he’ll be promoted between the Super Two deadline (so the White Sox can save money) and early September (rosters expand). I thought about using July 15th (All-Star Game) as my cut off.

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My fellow RotoGraph writers and I have started compiling our preseason position rankings. My initial rankings are projection based and then I adjust them as I see fit. I found several rankings/projections where the industry and I disagree. I am going to dig into three of those players today with more to come.

Freddie Freeman: Disputed Projection

Tenth? Really? I didn’t expect Freeman that low. Depth Chart based SGP values place him out as the tenth first baseman. At NFBC, he is the 6th first baseman which is near my gut based ranking. Additionally, he just went 24th overall in MLB.com’s Fantasy411 slow industry draft.

I am fine with the six players ahead of him (Goldy, Rizzo, Cabrera, Votto, E5, and Bryant). Then my gut disagrees and I am pretty sure some of our readers will also.

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We are at a low point in the offseason where there isn’t much usable fantasy news. I was able to find a few pieces of relevant news and gave a quick review of a book I just finished.

Notes

• Carrie Muskat of MLB.com provides her best guess on the Cubs lineup.

LF Schwarber; 3B Kris Bryant; 1B Rizzo; 2B Zobrist; SS Addison Russell; RF Heyward; C Willson Contreras; P Starting pitcher; CF Jay or Almora.

Maddon says he’s considering having the pitcher bat eighth again to give Schwarber more RBI opportunities. The manager wanted the “geeks” in the baseball operations department to go over the numbers. Schwarber leading off isn’t as crazy as it might seem. He’s one of the best in terms of on-base percentage.

Two thoughts. With Schwarber leading off, he will have a Run/RBI ratio near 1.65 (league average). Steamer projects him for a ratio of 1.07 Run/RBI. Owners must remember this new ratio if they want to keep their RBIs and Runs balanced.

Additionally, she predicts Contreras will hit before the pitcher and then one of the light hitting outfielders. This placement will kill his run scoring opportunities. He may get a good number of RBI chances as long as the other team doesn’t walk him to face the pitcher.

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Trea Turner’s and Francisco Lindor’s Unexpected Power

In 2015, Lindor perplexed fantasy owners by hitting 12 HR in just 438 PA. He was never much of a power hitter in the minors and scouting reports put him at below average power. He’s not been the only light-hitting infield prospect with unexpected power.

Trea Turner’s home run power was unanticipated with 13 homers in about half a season last year. Like Lindor, he never hit for much power in the minors and his power grades disappointed. Should owners point to Lindor as an example for limiting power expectations after an unexpected half season?

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Rays traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon

After looking over several factors (e.g. league, park, etc.), the biggest change for Forsythe will be the players surrounding him and his lineup position. Currently, we have the Dodgers projected for 4.6 Runs per games while the Rays are at 4.3 Runs per game. A better offense equates to more plate appearances, Runs, and RBIs.

My one worry is lineup position. In the games he started last year, he always led off. Right now, RosterResource.com has him again leading off. If he struggles, the Dodgers have better lineup replacement options than the Rays did. His value could plummet if moves down, especially to the eighth spot.

As for De Leon’s value, the key will be how many innings he throws. With the Rays not really contending this season, he could spend quite a bit of time in the minors or be up in a couple of weeks. No one knows for sure.

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Quote of the day

“People tell me that, and I’m like, ‘Shut up.’ ” –Trea Turner when asked why he hits so many home runs and doesn’t bunt more.

Quick (Long) Look at Matt Andriese

Andriese intrigues me as a potential sleeper. Historically, he has never been a highly rated prospect when he was a third-round pick out of Clemson. Baseball America ranked him at the Padres 20th rated prospect (50 overall grade) in 2013 and in 2014 he was 15th in their system (50 grade again). Then the Rays traded for him where he fell off the prospect map. From his old Baseball America profiles, he was working on several pitches but nothing stood out. When Kiley McDaniel graded him in 2015, he graded him with future 45’s to 55’s but put his overall grade at 40. No one extolled his virtues when he was finally called up to the majors.

I first noticed him when his 3.30 pERA (ERA based on each pitch’s results) was quite a bit lower than his 4.37 ERA. The per pitch grade had him with a plus change (60 grade), average fastball and curve (50 grade), and below average cutter/slider (45 grade). Additionally, he showed plus-plus control with his 1.8 BB/9 which when combined with his pitch grades put him as a 55-grade (above average) pitcher. Examining his 2015 season, his pitches were graded the same except he was throwing a below average two-seamer and didn’t have as much control.

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