Archive for Fantasy & Reality

The news cycle is pretty dry as seen by the multiple Drew Smyly articles. Even so, here are a few bits of fantasy relevant news from the past week.

Trades and Signings

Involving two trades, the Mariners get Drew Smyly and Shae Simmons, the Braves get Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows, the Rays get Mallex Smith, Ryan Yarbrough, and Carlos Vargas.

With so many players traded, here’s a breakdown of those relevant to fantasy baseball.

• Drew Smyly: Other FanGraphs and RotoGraphs authors have covered him in detail. I rooted around in his stats and think he will continue to struggle since he has only two decent pitches, a fastball and a slider.
• Shae Simmons: Edwin Diaz is the Mariners closer. After Diaz, no single reliever stands out so Simmons could get Saves if Diaz gets hurt.
• Mallex Smith: I don’t think he fills the role of an everyday player. He hits at below replacement level (i.e. bad). He wouldn’t get any fantasy love if wasn’t for his stolen base potential. He could eventually fit into the mold of “young” Jarrod Dyson who got stolen bases by pinch running.
• Luiz Gohara: Good arm but still in the low minors. Dynasty league option only.

Rangers signed Tyson Ross Read the rest of this entry »

Minor Trades

The Royals traded Jarrod Dyson to the Mariners for Nate Karns

The trade’s current winner is Jarrod Dyson’s playing time. While I wasn’t able to grab our playing time projections before the trade, Dyson’s playing time was likely projected at a half season of at bats. In the Baseball HQ Forecaster, they projected 259 at-bats and now we have him slotted in for 441 at bats. The additional playing time could help to push up his stolen base numbers into the forties.

I’m worried the Mariners may limit Dyson attempts. Last season, the Mariners were 24th in stolen base attempts. I tried several ways to see if team philosophy or talent controlled stolen base attempts.

A key factor I found was success rate which helped ease my concerns. A .44 r-squared exists between stolen base attempts and success rate. While the correlation isn’t perfect and some survivor bias exists in it, if players are successful, they continue to get the green light. Dyson had a sky-high 85% success rate over the past four seasons. If he can keep up the rate, he should be able to keep running.

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Adam Duvall found a home in left field for the Reds. He did it by playing acceptable defense and hitting 33 home runs. Additionally, he maintained a decent batting average with the help of a sub-30% K%. The production was split between the season’s two halves.

In the first half, he hit 23 home runs with a .302 ISO. In the second half, the hit just 10 home runs and a .203 ISO. While some regression should be expected from the first half, he recently mentioned the home run derby cost him some power.

“After the All-Star break, my forearms and hands were tired from the Derby. Maybe I was a little mentally tired from the adrenaline and everything,” Duvall said.

An interesting development. Using corrected StatCast exit velocity, here are Duvall’s batted ball production.
Read the rest of this entry »

Note: I didn’t write much during the Holiday season and am now just catching up on fantasy relevant news. I didn’t get through all my information and will continue tomorrow.

Nationals Bullpen Situation

I figured Shawn Kelley would be the Nationals closer if they didn’t trade for or sign a proven closer. Last season, his K-BB% was the sixth best among qualified relievers to go with his 2.64 ERA. Simply, he’s a stud. But people are thinking Blake Treinen will get the job. Paul and Eno discussed the option during The Sleeper and the Bust (Episode 412 at 1:20:17). Treinen was also discussed as an option in a James Collier article.

They have numerous in-house options with the arsenal and the perceived “makeup” to pitch the ninth inning, even if they lack experience in that role. Shawn Kelley has the profile with his strikeout ability. Blake Treinen has the ability to induce ground outs, and did so often last season in significant spots with inherited runners.

Treinen induces a ton of groundballs. His 66% GB% is ranks only behind Zach Britton. I can see why people Treinen’s groundball rate could make him a closer since similar pitchers are Sam Dyson and Brad Ziegler. These two closers are serviceable but not elite. The pitchers similar to Kelley’s K-BB% are Aroldis Chapman and Seung Hwan Oh.

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Time to talk a little Kyle Schwarber

I touched on it yesterday, but Schwarber’s fantasy value is going to fluctuate a ton depending on each league’s settings. In all my keeper leagues, he is getting the Utility tag because he didn’t make the minimum five games played last year (just two games in the outfield). I can’t emphasize enough, know your league settings. Most leagues require five starts until a player is eligible at a position, so I see him getting outfield eligibility the first or second week depending on the schedule and weather.

For him to get the five games at catcher to gain eligibility, let me say I am skeptical of him catching just one game, let alone five. Just to make sure I wasn’t off kilter, at least on this subject, I ask my Twitter followers when they thought he would reach the five games.
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Johnny Cueto: Sabermetric Anomaly

I am on a mission, to try to explain why some pitchers don’t fit into normal molds. I created pERA to help explain the advantages pitchers who have a mix of high and low groundball pitches experience. I tackled the Robbie Ray/Michael Pineda group of pitchers who can only throw their fastball for strikes. The next pitcher whose production can’t be explained by the above methods is Johnny Cueto. He just a hard player to figure out and here is why.

• Over the past six seasons, his ERA-FIP is the 4th lowest (-0.59) among all starters with at least 600 IP. The other pitchers surrounding him are low ground ball pitchers (and R.A. Dickey) who will see their BABIP suppressed because flyballs and popups are easy outs. Cueto’s 48% GB% is by far the highest among the ERA-FIP leaders until Doug Fister says hi at #22. Read the rest of this entry »

Stephen Strasburg plans on decreasing his slider usage. The impact on his fantasy value could be huge. First the facts. The stated reason for the change is to stay healthier.

Stephen Strasburg added a new slider to his repertoire this past season, and while the pitch was devastatingly effective, it may have led to the elbow injury that ended the Nationals right-hander’s season prematurely and forced him to miss the postseason.

Strasburg, who left the mound on Sept. 7 with what would later be diagnosed as a slight tear in his right pronator tendon and weakness in his flexor mass, believes the issue developed during the season in part because he became too reliant on the slider. After it was virtually not used at all previously, the slider became Strasburg’s second-most-used pitch in 2016 (behind his fastball).

While the exact medical implications won’t be known for a while, Strasburg knows his body the best and any move to stay healthy is good news.

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Jose Ramirez: 2017 Projection

Jose Ramirez was an afterthought for most people coming into the 2016 season. He had struggled early in 2015 (.176/.243/.235 in the first half) and was demoted and Francisco Lindor got called up. He came back in the season’s 2nd half and has been a different hitter ever since. His second half improvement went unnoticed because of the bad first half stats bringing down his value.

I read back through news reports to see if he was dealing with an injury or a change in approach while in the minors and could not find anything. Instead, I will throw out a bunch of stats showing the change without knowing the reason. First, here is his 2015 average exit velocity from baseballsavant.com.

Before getting demoted, his average batted velocity was below league average (84.8 mph) and after coming back it hovered around league average (87.9 mph). Besides hitting the ball harder, he went to a more line drive approach with his swing.

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Miguel Sano: 2017 Projection

Trevor Plouffe has elected for free agency which means Miguel Sano is slated to be the Twins starting third baseman. Sano has positive defense metrics for third base, unlike the outfield where he has been a subpar defender. This move has really opened up the playing time Sano which will help with his uninspiring fantasy value.

Sano’s game can be summed up as “trying to hit the ball hard”. When the 23-year-old makes contact, he can really hit it hard has seen by his career 23% HR/FB rate, .240 ISO, and .354 BABIP (good for a slow guy).

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Eduardo Nunez: 2017 Projection

The 29-year-old Nunez went from being a Twins bench player to a top-40 fantasy player. Looking over his year-to-year profile he was basically the same player he’s been for his career, but he was given a full season of plate appearances for the first time in 2016. For example, his 2016 triple slash line (.288/.325/.432) is almost identical to his 2015 line (.282/.327/.431).

Two small differences, besides the playing time which was a huge difference, were important with his 2016 season. The first was an improving power profile.

I am a little worried the home runs may not be as high playing in San Francisco, but they should be in the double digits.

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