Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Andriese, Data Half-Life & Injury Updates

Quote of the day

“People tell me that, and I’m like, ‘Shut up.’ ” –Trea Turner when asked why he hits so many home runs and doesn’t bunt more.

 

Quick (Long) Look at Matt Andriese

Andriese intrigues me as a potential sleeper. Historically, he has never been a highly rated prospect when he was a third-round pick out of Clemson. Baseball America ranked him at the Padres 20th rated prospect (50 overall grade) in 2013 and in 2014 he was 15th in their system (50 grade again). Then the Rays traded for him where he fell off the prospect map. From his old Baseball America profiles, he was working on several pitches but nothing stood out. When Kiley McDaniel graded him in 2015, he graded him with future 45’s to 55’s but put his overall grade at 40. No one extolled his virtues when he was finally called up to the majors.

I first noticed him when his 3.30 pERA (ERA based on each pitch’s results) was quite a bit lower than his 4.37 ERA. The per pitch grade had him with a plus change (60 grade), average fastball and curve (50 grade), and below average cutter/slider (45 grade). Additionally, he showed plus-plus control with his 1.8 BB/9 which when combined with his pitch grades put him as a 55-grade (above average) pitcher. Examining his 2015 season, his pitches were graded the same except he was throwing a below average two-seamer and didn’t have as much control.

All the pitches allowed him to post some acceptable 2016 stats playable in all leagues. His 15.9% K-BB% was 34th among all starters with 120 IP (118 total pitchers) and higher than Cole Hamels, Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke, Michael Fulmer, and Marco Estrada. His 1.8 BB/9 was the 10th best among the same group of pitchers.

Additionally, he’s not an extreme groundball or flyball pitcher with a 42% GB% (45% is league average). His individual pitches are extreme, though.

Pitch: GB%
Fastball: 24%
Slider: 55%
Change: 64%
Curve: 55%

A low overall value hides a nice batted ball profile.

He does have an Achilles heel, home runs. He allowed 1.2 HR/9 last season and 1.1 HR/9 the year before. While his fastball gives up a ton of flyballs balls, his other pitches caused the long balls.

Pitch: HR/FB%
Slider/Cutter: 13%
Change: 15%
Curve: 20%

I watched one of his starts to see if I could find out any additional information. I chose his September 24th start against the Red Sox to find any clues. Here are my thoughts.

• Fastball: 90-92 mph with a nice rise. This pitch is way underrated with its ability to get flyballs and swings-and-misses.
• Cutter(Slider): 85-87 mph with some release side run. This pitch gets labeled as a slider and cutter but they are the same pitch.
• Changeup: 85-87 mph with a huge late glove side drop. A swing-and-miss only pitch with a 31% Zone% but an 18% SwStr%. Enjoy watching Chris Young flail away at one.

 

 

• Curve: 76-81 mph, 12-6 break with small loopy drop. He can throw it for strikes.
• His pitches are an example of the whole being better than the parts. The change and cutter are the same speed but completely different breaks. He has pitches that break four different directions. He can throw three for strikes. Everything works together.
• The major issue I noticed was inconsistency in speed and break. I am pretty sure the differences weren’t intentional because usually the break pitches just hung over the middle of the plate to get crushed.

Overall, I am buying. His current draft position is 340th in NFBC and 399th at Fantrax. Pitchers going before him are Wei-Yin Chen, Jordan Zimmermann, and Dan Straily. I would take Andriese before any of these three (and any others). I would value him in the 200 range (Jerad Eickhoff, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Rodon). I won’t need to pick him then but know I can wait until around pick 260 (his earliest draft slot) and acquire him.

 

Deeper Thoughts: Half-Life of Stats and Models

Sam Arbesman talks about the idea of a fact’s half-life in this video.

The part I found most interesting (and applicable to fantasy baseball) starts at 7:18. He mentions that within 50 years, half of all journal articles contain “false or obsolete conclusions”. This concept got me wonder what’s half-life for useful baseball ideas. For example, some people still hold onto Wins and RBIs after they were found useless years ago.

Baseball is an evolving sport and here’s a quick timeline of semi-recent major steps forward in our baseball knowledge.

2001: DIPS/BABIP/FIP
2003: Moneyball. OBP vs AVG, projections (PECOTA)
2007: Pitchf/x pitch data
2015: StatCast hitter data

Our knowledge has grown and it gives those who know how to implement it and advantage. Fantasy owners must not grow complacent and must continue to explore these new ideas.

Owners use real-time stats to create models like xFIP and DRA. Also, they use previous years’ stats to create projection models. Models are models, not facts. No previously designed model has been the final say. As George Box announced, “All models are wrong.” Even though models aren’t perfect, they can be improved. An example is when Steamer projections added pitcher velocity changes into their top rated projections.

… Steamer comes out ahead. I asked Jared Cross what was making his projections so good, and he explained that he was using velocity (as well as handedness) in his pitcher projections, and that was giving them a leg up. He wasn’t the only person to suggest doing something like this. I only started thinking seriously about it recently, but I think it really is the “next big thing” in pitcher projections.

The group at Steamer continues to be on the cutting edge with the possible addition of batted ball velocity. The learning never stops.

Not every person needs to create their own projections with various inputs but they shouldn’t continually use dated methods and ideas. Times change and owners should expect to adapt as new ideas bloom and old ones wither away.

 

Injury Notes:

• Randal Grichuk stated he had offseason knee surgery to remove floating cartilage. The injury, which happened after the first month, didn’t seem to affect his performance.

Time Frame: Batted Ball Velo, wRC+
2015: 87.7 mph, 137
April 2016: 85.3 mph, 73
May to EOS 2016: 87.9 mph, 108

He was more productive after the injury than before it.

• Jordan Zimmermann believes doctors found the cause for this shoulder pain and the resulting velocity loss (-1.2 mph on fastball).

“I think the biggest problem we figured out was [a] nerve was getting pinched out of one of my vertebrae in the neck and then shoots [discomfort] down into the neck and into the shoulder,” Zimmermann said on Thursday as the Tigers’ Winter Caravan began to roll. “That’s what I was experiencing.

…

“I’m just happy that we got down to the bottom of this and figured out what it actually is instead of [saying], ‘Well, it could be this, it could be this.’ You have 15 people telling you 15 different things, and you don’t know which way to go. I’m glad that I went down and saw [the specialist], and he’s fairly confident that’s what the issue is, so I’m happy about that.”

Zimmermann was never a strikeout pitcher, but the velocity destroyed what strikeout ability he had (7.3 K/9 to 5.6 K/9) and hitters lit him up with 6-year highs in BABIP and HR/9. Hopefully, he gets his velocity back but owners will have to wait until spring training to find out for sure.

• I believed in Drew Pomeranz’s production before his elbow started acting up. The elbow bothered him after the season ended and he got a stem-cell shot.

It was clear by the end of the season that Drew Pomeranz wasn’t 100 percent. Indeed, the left-hander said Saturday that he received a stem-cell shot in his left elbow following the season to help deal with the “minor elbow discomfort” he experienced in 2016.

“I had some minor discomfort that was kind of slowing me down a little bit, more so toward the end of my outings,” Pomeranz said. “Everybody deals with a little bit of something during the year. I just had to fight through it to get to the end of the season.”

Like Zimmermann, I am taking a wait and see approach before going all in.

• Tyson Ross will not be ready to pitch until at least May or June.

A club official expects that Ross will make his 2017 debut in May or June after taking a conservative approach to his recovery.

“I don’t know what the date is going to be, but I’m totally confident that not only will I be ready but I’ll be back at 100 percent and be able to help this ballclub win some games down the stretch,” Ross said.

I am not surprised one bit by the return date and will make my projections based on him returning mid-June.

• Stomach surgery will cost the Rangers’ Jake Diekman at least half of his 2017 season.

The Rangers will be without left-handed reliever Jake Diekman for at least the first half of the 2017 season while he recovers from upcoming stomach surgery. Diekman is scheduled to undergo the procedure on Jan. 25 to help alleviate his chronic ulcerative colitis. Diekman has dealt with that condition for many years and surgery was always a possibility.

Since he’s a lefty, Diekman wasn’t in line for Saves but he put up good ratios in Holds leagues.

• Aaron Nola believes he is 100% healthy.

If Aaron Nola pitches as well as he said he feels, there might not be any competition this spring for the fifth spot in the Phillies’ rotation.
…
“100 percent,” Nola said. “My arm is all good.”
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“[Nola]’s got to show he’s healthy and he’s making pitches,” Mackanin said. “Now, when the season rolls around, it’s like anybody else, results matter. I think that if he’s healthy he’s going to be successful.”

Nola sounds like he’s healthy but one quote from him stood out.

Nola is confident he will not repeat those struggles.

“I haven’t looked at any video, and I don’t plan on looking at any video,” he said.

This statement scares me as a Nola owner in a keeper league. Pitchers will change. They’ll need to adjust to stay productive and he seems not ready to adjust. Hopefully, his coaches looked into the issue and have an improvement plan which Nola accepts.