Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Freeman, Pollock, Baez, & Notes

My fellow RotoGraph writers and I have started compiling our preseason position rankings. My initial rankings are projection based and then I adjust them as I see fit. I found several rankings/projections where the industry and I disagree. I am going to dig into three of those players today with more to come.

Freddie Freeman: Disputed Projection

Tenth? Really? I didn’t expect Freeman that low. Depth Chart based SGP values place him out as the tenth first baseman. At NFBC, he is the 6th first baseman which is near my gut based ranking. Additionally, he just went 24th overall in MLB.com’s Fantasy411 slow industry draft.

I am fine with the six players ahead of him (Goldy, Rizzo, Cabrera, Votto, E5, and Bryant). Then my gut disagrees and I am pretty sure some of our readers will also.

I will dive into the projection to see where the projections and expectations diverge. Here are the Steamer values with the average values ranges from four fantasy print publications (Sporting News, The Fantasy Baseball Guide, The Baseball Forecaster, and RotoWorld).

Stat: Steamer (other pub range)
AB: 665
HR: 27 (27 to 31)
R: 87
RBI: 90
SB: 4
AVG: .275 (.283 to .296)

The Depth Chart projections are at or below the bottom end of the spectrum in home runs and batting average. I need to investigate why each is low and I will start with home runs.

Freeman sacrificed some contact (Contact%: 77% to 72%) for more power (Hard%: 38% to 44%) and fly balls (FB%: 36% to 40%) from 2015 to 2016. His batted ball data lines up with this string data. His corrected exit velocity increased from 88.8 mph to 89.4 mph, his average launch angle went from 14 degrees to 17 degrees, and his average distance from 221 feet to 237 feet. Here is some expected power metrics using the batted ball data.

Stat: 2016, x(EV), x(Batted Ball Distance)
ISO: .267, .206, .239
HR/FB: 16%, 17%, 16%

With the above information, I could see his home runs drop a bit from his 2016 total (regression and low exit velocity) but not to 27. I will project 30 homers which will boost his Runs and RBI a bit.

Now onto his batting average. This value is based on how much of the .370 BABIP he maintains. Steamer thinks very little with his BABIP regressing to .327 which would be near his four-year low of .321. I ran my xBABIP formula and he was at a .338 xBABIP last year. I can live with this value, but just one more check.

Since 1980, 60 hitters (min 500 PA) have posted a BABIP between .365 and .375. The average and median BABIP the next season was just over Steamer at .329. Only 25% of the hitters posted around or better than a .350 BABIP which will be needed to post a .295 AVG.

With the information, I will bump up his projected AVG to .283 with a .335 BABIP. The average and home runs are still on the low side of the industry consensus but I can live with that. For a final projection, I will use: 30 HR, .283 AVG, 93 Runs, 96 RBI, 4 SB, 665 PA

A.J. Pollock: Disputed Projection

I ranked Pollock as the 17th outfielder (15th removing Turner and Bryant). I didn’t think the ranking was out of place until I saw him going as the 7th outfielder in NFBC and in the 2nd round of the 12-team mock by MLB.com. Are our Depth Charts projections low again?

To start with, here are his projected stats:
Stat: Depth Chart (other pub range)
AB: 630
HR: 16 (15 to 20)
R: 82
RBI: 64
SB: 25 (22 to 33)
AVG: .281 (.281 to .290)

First, I think he is playing the whole season, so 600+ PA are in line with him batting leadoff. I will start the analysis with stolen bases.

He had 39 steals two seasons ago. Since then, he’s two year older (29) and the new Diamondbacks’ management has a sabermetric slant. These two factors should push his stolen bases down. While it was nice to see him successfully complete all four attempts last season, it’s tough to read too much into 46 plate appearances.

Looking historically, his numbers line up right with his Depth Chart projections. I found 53 hitters between age 26 and 28 who stole 34 to 40 bases. Two seasons later, the average number of stolen bases was 27.5 with the median at 25. The Depth Chart value of 25 SB seems right.

Now for the home runs and batting average. I don’t have a good feeling with making a call here. I will start with some batted ball data to start the confusion.

Stat: 2015, 2016
Exit Velocity: 86 mph, 81 mph
Distance: 192 ft, 206 ft
Launch angle: 9 degrees, 16 degrees
FB%: 29%, 48%

In the few plate appearances Pollock had, he used a huge uppercut swing as seen in his two 2016 home runs.

Those are legit home runs but he had to give up his line drive approach. He could have made the change intentionally or it could be an injury related adjustment. More home runs would be great but there would be a tradeoff. The high flyball rate would kill his batting average and stolen base opportunities. But this change is again based on 46 PA.

I am not sure how to correctly evaluate him but the projection I used seems reasonable. If he keeps his flyball approach, he could hit 25 homers but his average may drop to .260. Or he could hit like he did in 2015. There is no way to know. I am going to track him in spring training to see if his 2016 flyball heavy approach continues and adjust his value accordingly but otherwise, roll with his current projection.

Javier Baez: Disputed Projection

Baez’s low projections come down to limited playing time (430 PA). There aren’t enough spots to go around with the Cubs. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are regulars. Then Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward, and Javier Baez are all fighting for four spots (2B, SS, RF, and LF). I think Baez and Heyward could get the short end of this stick.

In weekly leagues, I will stay away from the situation until the roles become clearer. Getting only 2/3 of the possible plate appearances per week will kill their value.

In daily lineup leagues, these players have more value. If they aren’t playing, a bench option can be used. Maybe an owner can try to pick up two them like Zobrist and Baez and can always have a lineup option.

Notes

• The underrated website, Pitcher List, produced an amazing breakdown of Matt Strahm including several videos.

It’s important to understand the innate risk involved here – simply put, the Royals may not be slotting Strahm in as a starter out of spring training as he’ll be in a tight competition with Nate Karns. But if Strahm has the green light as their #5 SP, there is plenty of value to be had in your drafts. With his stellar Fastball, huge Curveball and solid Changeup, Strahm could return as high as #3 SP value for the price of your last round pick in drafts. Don’t reach too far with the questions still at play, but it’s hard not to chase a ceiling of a near 9.00 K/9, a walk rate below 3.00 BB/9 and solid ERA/WHIP numbers across 170-180 innings at such a cheap price.

I agree with the assessment as an under the radar starting pitching pick for deeper leagues. The key with him will be waiting for one of the other Royals starters to falter or get injured.

• I will continue to pimp other people’s work and this time it’s MLB.com’s Mike Petriello. He utilizes StatCast data to analyze some injured sluggers such as Gregory Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Bryce Harper. When an owner knows an injury hampered a position player, they can bump up their next season projections.

Carter Capps expects to be healthy for the season’s start.

So the Marlins dealt Capps to San Diego, where his recovery progressed quicker than expected. Capps will likely be back to full health early in Spring Training. “Some people have lost sight of how good Carter Capps was when he was closing games in Florida,” Padres manager Andy Green said. “His numbers were off the charts that last year.”

Capps is an underrated pitcher (40th RP in NFBC) but I worry about him returning to his 2015 form. I’ll be following him closely as he illegally jump pitches in spring training.

• In two catcher leagues, bottom feeding owners may want to consider Yan Gomes and Devin Mesoraco.

Just last season Gomez was a top 10 option. He states he’s “feeling 100%” and he might be a nice endgame value play.

Mesoraco emergence for DL obscurity is murky. He’s only played in 18 starts over the past two season but he’s considered to be healthy. We’ll see. Be ready to move on quickly if he doesn’t get going.

 





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

6 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Azizalmember
7 years ago

Looks like Karns and Strahm are both out of the rotation for now given the Hammel signing.

Azizalmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Azizal

or not… Roster Resource still has Strahm at #5 and Hammel at #4. Obviously they could be wrong but they had Strahm there before the signing, so this is a little surprising.