Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Moore & More

Matt Moore’s New Cutter

I have seen quite a bit of love for Matt Moore this preseason linking an improvement with the Giants to reintroducing his cutter. After diving quickly into his profile, I found no reason to be optimistic.

The decision that Moore changed didn’t come from his ERA which was exactly 4.08 with both the Rays and Giants. His FIP dropping one point (4.51 to 3.53) was the reason for optimism. His xFIP (4.70 to 4.28) and SIERA (4.45 to 4.35) also dropped, but not as much. His peripheral stats were a mixed bag with his strikeout rate (7.6 K/9 to 9.1 K/9) and walk rate (2.8 BB/9 to 4.2 BB/9) both jumping while his HR/9 halved (1.4 to 0.7 HR/9).

Moore had a new mix of inputs but still ended up with the same results. In this instance, this is an expected outcome. First here are Moore’s pitches, outcomes, and usages last season.

The results lineup his change. He allowed fewer home runs with the Giants since his cutter was more groundball-prone. Since the cutter did give up more ground balls instead of easy fly balls, his BABIP for the cutter was .364 and was only .249 for the four-seamer (overall BABIP increased from .280 to .297).

Looking over his projections, I feel the ZIPS projection is the closest to the truth. If Moore keeps using the cutter, his BABIP will be higher. Especially higher than the .275 BABIP projected by Steamer. Additionally, Steamer has a 3.2 BB/9 which is lower than any of Moore’s career values (ignoring 9.1 IP pitched in 2011). I don’t see any signs of how Moore made a huge step forward and how it will continue into next season. I will use Steamer projections for valuing him.

 

Brandon Phillips was traded to the Braves for some jelly beans

Overall, this move is great for fantasy owners. The big gainer with this move is Jose Peraza. He is no longer blocked by Phillips and has a clear path to a full season of plate appearances. With those extra at bats, he could easily post a 30+ steals and a .300 AVG.

As for Phillips, he looks to be the 2017 Braves’ full-time second baseman. I don’t think Jace Peterson is the answer at second. He’s a light hitting middle infielder without batting average or stolen base potential.

Additionally, I am not sure Ozzie Albies bat is major league ready after posting an 89 wRC+ in AAA. Albies could get playing time in two instances by mid-season. First, if the Braves are completely out of playoff contention, they could cut Phillips and bring out Albies to get him acclimated to MLB pitching. The second scenario would involve the Braves still in the playoff hunt with Phillips struggling and Albies tearing up AAA. Albies could get the call and Phillips could be benched or cut.

 

Notes

• I may break down in detail the LABR mixed draft at a later date but I do think it is a good reference point for current ADP. I find ADP gets into an early season rut as good but underrated players slowly move up as savvy owners wait on taking them. I think the LABR draft helps to reset a player’s floor. Besides a few players (e.g. DeGrom in the 5th), I also think it is a good ranking of player values.

• Kyle Schwarber says he will be the Cubs third catching option.

The 23-year-old is projected to catch one to two days a week in Spring Training, while primarily playing left field for the Cubs.

“It’s going to be limited,” Schwarber said of catching. “My role right now is most likely third catcher. I’ve got [Willson Contreras] and [Miguel Montero]. I’ve got to be ready at any time to come in late in the game from left field to maybe come catch and give those guys a blow. It’s not like I’m going to be the everyday starter

This sounds like he may catch once every two or three weeks. With that pace, it will take two to four months for him to get catcher eligibility and it should be baked into his projection.

• Jeanmar Gomez is currently the Phillies closer. It is his job to lose.

But Mackanin loosened his stance last month. He said about the closer’s competition, “I wouldn’t say it’s wide open. I’m going to give Gomez every opportunity to show that he’s the guy that pitched the first five months and not the guy that pitched in September.”
Mackanin made that point even clearer Tuesday.

“I believe he deserves to be called our closer at this point,” Mackanin said. “We certainly have some guys to go to, with [Hector] Neris and [Joaquin] Benoit and [Edubray] Ramos. The guys who have shown closer’s stuff. But right now, Jeanmar’s the closer.”

I think Neris is the better pitcher so he may end up with the job once Gomez falters.

• A sneaky play in deep and AL-only leagues may be Michael Feliz. The Astros plan on making him a multi-inning reliever.

Feliz, 23, appears to be a near-lock as a long-relief option following his up-and-down rookie season in which he threw 65 innings, allowed 32 earned runs and struck out 95. He established a club rookie record with 13.15 strikeouts per nine innings.

“He’s very versatile, he’s got a starter’s background, so multiple innings out of the ‘pen are going to be big,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said. “I see him in a competition with a few relievers depending on how the balance of the bullpen goes. He’s got a leg up because he missed so many bats last year.”

Feliz threw more than one inning 19 times in his 47 relief outings, including a 4 1/3-inning outing in the second game of the season (in relief of Collin McHugh) and a trio of three-inning outings. That included a seven-strikeout outing in three innings against the White Sox on July 2.

These multi-inning high strikeout pitchers are great ways to get both the counting and ratio stats from a non-closer. The one issue with Feliz over his first two seasons is the high 1.5 HR/9 and .311 BABIP. The key for his overall value will be if these high batted numbers regress some or if they are closer to his true talent level.

• Julio Urias will not break camp with the Dodgers as they want to save his arm for the later in the season.

Julio Urias will be in there eventually, but the club wants to defer innings on his 20-year-old arm for September and October.

This move makes complete sense by avoiding the Strasburg situation from a few years back. Last season, he threw 133 innings including the postseason. Adding 30 innings to the total puts him at 163 IP. I think this will be his max MLB total. If the Dodgers’ rotation is healthy and productive when he is ready, he could burn a few of those innings in AAA. Maybe his value should be 150 IP and 50 IP of replacement value.

• Yan Gomes is expected to get most of the Indians catching innings.

The Indians plan on opening the season with Yan Gomes as their starting catcher and Roberto Perez as his backup. Manager Terry Francona made it clear on Thursday morning that there will be no competition between the two for the primary job behind the plate.

“No, we have two good catchers,” Francona said. “We’re fortunate. We have two good catchers. Gomer’s been our catcher. Just for different reasons — whether it’s been injuries — Roberto stepped in and really did a great job. So, it’s my responsibility to make it work for both of them, and we will.”

• Greg Johns of MLB.com gives his best guess at the Mariners lineup.

Against right-handed starters: Jarrod Dyson LF, Jean Segura SS, Robinson Cano 2B, Nelson Cruz DH, Kyle Seager 3B, Mitch Haniger RF, Daniel Vogelbach 1B, Mike Zunino C, Leonys Martin CF
….
Against left-handed starters: Segura SS, Haniger RF, Cano 2B, Cruz DH, Seager 3B, Danny Valencia 1B, Zunino C, Guillermo Heredia LF, Martin CF.

The key point from the following is Mitch Haniger in both lineups. Those extra at-bats will be critical for counting stats.

• The Dodgers signed both Franklin Gutierrez and Chase Utley. I don’t know how much either will play since the Dodgers have decent starters already manning the outfield and second base. The pair does give the Dodgers decent bench but I would not count on much playing time from them.