Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Bellinger & Fastball Velocities

Cody Bellinger is going to be a stud. He’s athletic and can hit the ball a mile. Just watch this home run from yesterday and enjoy.

I believe he’d be getting a ton focus if Adrian Gonzalez, and his contract, didn’t already occupy first base. The 35-year-old is still productive and can’t be benched … I think.

The Dodgers have benched Andre Ethier and his bloated contract. I don’t think benching Gonzalez would happen this year. According to my Twitter followers, they don’t either.

If Adrian Gonzalez is really struggling at the plate at the end of May (sub .200 AVG, 3 HR), what are the chances Bellinger replaces him?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) February 27, 2017

I really brought Gonzalez’s production down (slim chance) and most people don’t believe he will get replaced. What I do think will have to happen is a trade where the Dodgers eat most of Gonzalez’s contract. That move isn’t going to happen until at least the trade deadline but probably during the offseason.

I went and looked the Dodgers’ schedule to see if the Dodgers have a week-long AL-only road trip but none exist. Additionally, the Gonzalez seems to never get hurt. Over the last 11 seasons, he has never played fewer than 156 games. I don’t think the playing time for Bellinger will be from Gonzalez.

One option is Bellinger moving to the outfield. He’s played 14 games in left in the minors and 39 in center. This transition seems reasonable and according to several prospect publications, they expect his outfield defense to be acceptable.

He’s also seen time in the outfield, including center, and there are scouts who think he could play all three outfield spots in a pinch — though the glove is so good at first base that nobody will actively endorse it. The thought of a bat like this playing center field, even if he’s a 40 there, is enticing, but Bellinger’s leatherwork at first is special and major-league clubs like sound defensive first basemen because they’re constantly handling the ball. I don’t see him moving to the outfield unless it’s necessary to get his bat in the lineup at the big-league level immediately. – Eric Longenhagen on the 2017 top Dodger prospects.

Considered a future Gold Glover at first base, he moves and throws well enough that he also has seen time at all three outfield positions and hasn’t looked overmatched in center field. His versatility will help him crack the lineup in Los Angeles, where All-Star Adrian Gonzalez is still under contract for two more seasons. –MLB.com

Bellinger is even an average runner, so the Dodgers have had him play the outfield as well. He’s stretched thin in center field but is playable at both corners. – Baseball America’s 2017 Prospect Handbook

I think the outfield will be his path to playing time. In the first two spring training games, he has only played at first. I think the likelihood he plays will go up once he has several consecutive outfield starts. This transition may not happen until the minor league season begins and the Dodgers are getting some zero’s in the outfield or someone gets hurt.

After looking at the all the options, I just don’t see Bellinger at first base in 2017 but there may be a path to playing time if the outfield.

 

Spring Training Fastball Velocity

The Fastball velocity can be quickly and fairly accurately measured in spring training. Historically, pitchers will only see an increase of 0.6 mph when the season starts so most are throwing at their season speed and not holding back.

This season I have decided to make the data available in a spreadsheet, alphabetically by first names. As a Royals fan, a few more of their names will be included but generally, I will try to collect speeds on anyone I feel is relevant. The parks with built in pitch tracking systems are Surprise (Rangers and Royals), Peoria (Mariners and Padres), and Salt River (Rockies and Diamondbacks). Additionally, the Yankees broadcast shows the stadium gun so I can get some velocities from Florida (let me know if there are others). Additionally, I will find some velocity references in written material.

Thoughts on a few movers

• Shelby Miller (+2.5 mph to 95.5 mph): A huge uptick which hopefully leads to good outcomes. He only averaged this high of a velocity for one game in 2015. I think this bump makes him a good buy-low candidate coming back from injury.

• Zack Godley (+4 mph to 94.8 mph): If Godley is hitting 95 mph, he could take a huge step forward. For those looking for a sleeper, here is one for you.

• A.J. Cole (+4 mph t0 93 to 95 mph): The Washington Post states the following on Cole’s velocity.

Stadium radar guns notoriously mislead, but the 95 mph that flashed a couple times on the new video board at Hammond Stadium on Sunday afternoon with A.J. Cole on the mound wasn’t irrelevant, even if it was a tick or two exaggerated. Cole’s average fastball velocity in his eight starts with the Washington Nationals last season was under 91 mph, a disconcerting trend for a pitcher who had become one of baseball’s top prospects with a fastball in the mid-90s. That extra velocity, the difference between getting away with mistakes and getting rocked by them, had vanished.
…
The payoff was evident Sunday in his spring debut, even if his final numbers weren’t ideal. Getting the start against the Minnesota Twins, Cole threw a fastball that sat between 93 and 95 mph, though, again, stadium radar guns can get hot.

I went back to the 2015 Baseball America Prospect Handbook and it had Cole at 91 to 93 mph, touching 96. One year earlier, the handbook said he was 94-95 touching 97. It may be time to buy back in after seeing velocity drop the last few seasons.

 

Notes

• One prospect I am watching closely to start the season is Dylan Cozens. He hit 40 home runs while playing for Double-A Reading (29 of 40 HR at home). He has been working on changing his swing and finally has one he likes. Most of the knocks on Cozens’s 2016 season was with his small home park. I completely understand the reservations, so I think he should be monitored closely in 2017 to see if the power continues. If so, he could be a huge power asset with a clear path to playing time.

• In deeper leagues, where every position player is in play, the playing time battle between Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson could instant value for the winner’s owners. They’re each projected for the same wOBA (.308) and league average defense. The winner could be who’s swinging the hottest bat during spring training.