Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Moncada, Kang, & Injury Updates

Projection Analysis: Yoan Moncada

Many prospect experts project Yoan Moncada to be one of the game’s few top prospects. Some have him as the top guy but his MLB playing time and production varied substantially. I found I needed a projection I felt comfortable using.  I’ll start with his playing time.

I believe he’ll be promoted between the Super Two deadline (so the White Sox can save money) and early September (rosters expand). I thought about using July 15th (All-Star Game) as my cut off.

To see how close I was with my estimate, I put out this Twitter poll.

What is the closest percentage of the 2017 season do you expect Yoan Moncada to play in the majors?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) February 9, 2017

The average time estimate works out to 49.6%. Half a season seems perfect and in line with my gut reaction. Now for an estimate on his production.

The projected performance varies from an All-Star to barely usable. For example, I adjusted four print publications to 550 at-bats and they ranged from 10 to 23 home runs, 17 to 32 stolen bases, and a batting average from .238 to .277. A 20 HR/30 SB season is reaching Mookie Betts and Jose Altuve territory. On the low end, he’s similar to peak Drew Stubbs, some home runs and steals but no batting average.

Moncada’s limited experience leads to these difficult projection. His projection should contain a mix of both scouting and results. Here are some projections I found useful to get a composite value (Cartwrights MLE’s and prospect grade projection).

 

His unique skill set makes comparisons tough to find but here are four players who came close. I have included the player’s NFBC ADP (Moncada currently coming in at 234 overall).

With Moncada’s projection mixed with a half season of replacement level production, his lower ADP seems about right. So for a final projection, I will go with:
300 PA, 275 AB, 37 Runs, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 13 SB, .247 AVG, .285 OBP + 300 PA of replacement level player.

 

Jung Ho Kang expected time missed

Jung-Ho Kang is expected to miss the start of spring training while in court for his 3rd DUI. First off, I understand Kang did a terrible act and for that reason alone I can understand why owners may not roster him. I am going to ignore the situation’s moral implications and just look into his possible time missed.

I’m clueless on legal matters, so I asked our own legal expert, Nathaniel Grow, to comment. Grow’s not for sure on the how the case will go in Korea for Kang. On this front, I am a little worried about him missing some time since the Pirates are added Phil Gosselin to their roster. I may cut off a projected month of playing time for his possible trial and subsequent time missed.

Grow was able to give a better projection on MLB repercussions.

I can’t remember MLB suspending anyone for DUI, but might be forgetting someone. You’d think they would feel the need to do something, but if it’s too harsh the union will challenge it. And if it isn’t very harsh, then the PR optics are horrible (almost worse than doing nothing at all).

My guess is they negotiate something ahead of time with the union, like with Chapman. Maybe 10 games?

With this additional time lost, I think a projection weighted to 450 plate appearance (plus 150 from replacement player) seems reasonable.

 

Injuries

• Homer Bailey is expected to start the season on the DL after having a bone spur removed.

The Reds’ hopes to have pitcher Homer Bailey’s arm troubles behind him for good took a downturn. Bailey had arthroscopic surgery on Wednesday to remove small bone spurs from his right elbow, the club revealed.

The Reds expect Bailey to resume throwing in 4-6 weeks. He is likely to begin the season on the disabled list.

With the four-week recovery time, he’ll not throw until mid-March. Then, he needs a month to ramp his pitching. He’s going to miss a start or two to begin the season with a good possibility of missing a bit more time. I’d recommend cutting his season down by at least a month and I will push my own projections to two months with his injury history. One hundred and twenty innings seem to be his limit.

• Sean Rodriguez will be out 3 months to the entire season after being involved in an automobile accident.

The Braves wouldn’t comment on the status of Rodriguez or the nature of his injury, other than to offer their support and prayers for the well-being and recovery of the player and his family.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported Rodriguez would have shoulder surgery soon and miss three to five months for shoulder surgery, but another person familiar with the situation said there was a chance Rodriguez could miss the entire season. When the accident occurred, it was first believed and reported that Rodriguez had escaped serious injury.

Unless a deep league has an unlimited bench, I see no reason to own Rodriguez until he is on the comeback trail.

• The Red Sox 5th starter spot is up for grabs with Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz, and Eduardo Rodriguez all hurting.

On his first day of speaking to reporters from JetBlue Park, with pitchers and catchers officially arriving tomorrow, manager John Farrell said that neither Wright nor Pomeranz is expected to throw off a mound for at least a week.

The knuckleballer still hasn’t fully recovered from a shoulder injury he suffered while diving back to second base when Farrell used him as a pinch-runner during an interleague game against the Dodgers last August. Wright had thrown a complete shutout the night before. He missed two weeks, returned to make two starts in which he allowed nine runs in 10 innings, and has yet to pitch since.
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Pomeranz, who admitted feeling elbow soreness last year, received a stem cell injection in October.
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And the Sox still don’t know what to expect from Rodriguez, who recently injured the same knee he hurt last spring while pitching in winter ball.

I don’t have a good reading on this situation yet and could see all three getting at least 10 starts this year.

• Glen Perkins pushed back his first mound work after shoulder surgery last June.

• Daniel Mengden and his beautiful mustache will miss time to start the season.

Already, the A’s fifth starter competition is down a candidate less than a week before camp opens, as right-hander Daniel Mengden underwent right foot surgery on Wednesday.

Mengden fractured a bone just below his right big toe while throwing a bullpen session at his home in Houston on Jan. 31, the A’s announced. He is expected to be in a walking boot for six weeks, and there is no timetable for his return.

He’s going to miss significant time. Six weeks with the boot and at least a month of rehab puts him at early May for his earliest return. He is not even guaranteed a major league spot once he returns.