Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! It’s offseason time, let’s talk some baseball!

Curtis: What “breakout” in 2020 do you think is legit?  Conversely, which players stellar 2020 is least likely to repeat in 2021 and beyond?

Paul Sporer: Here’s 4 breakouts I checked out recently: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/assessing-4-unexpected-hitting-breakouts… — I’m a little dubious on Teoscar Hernandez, which pains me as I like him. But I’m not sure there were any major changes sustaining the breakout and with four more months, he’d have meandered back toward his level or maybe finished a bit higher, but not at the clip we saw

Michael: I have a trade offer of Austin Meadows for Gerritt Cole even up.  You can keep Meadows two fantasy seasons; Cole one.  Cole is marginally more expensive (bidding league).  Thoughts on Meadows?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK giving Meadows a bit of a pass for ’19 as he wound with just a month after dealing with COVID, but I don’t think I want to do this deal. I’ll take my 1 ace season of Cole

Chuck: Hi, Paul. Do you call your car the Paul Bearer? Because you could.

Jeff Zimmerman: Hello

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s finally nice to get a bit of free agent move with Ray and Smyly signing deals

S: Do you know how projection systems are handling the shortened season? I imagine they have to be using some cross validation techniques but can’t seem to find anything speaking specifically to this point.

Jeff Zimmerman: Most weigh each season by PA and a of total. For example, it might be 50% previous, 30% two years back and 20% from three years.

Jeff Zimmerman: For a normal three seasons, it might by 40 HR, 20 HR, 20 HR with 600 PA’s for a projection of 30 HR.

Jeff Zimmerman: Now assume 13 HR (200 PA) and the 20 for the other two season (600 PA). The projection is weighted to the 20’s and would be not be all the way to 30 this time.

wes: What to do with Stanton in a keep-5 no penalties 12-teamer? Last four years of keeping him: one MVP and three ostensible zeroes. Still a Top-60 keeper?

Jeff Zimmerman: It really comes down to the other keeper options. I think he’s a borderline top-60 player so others could have moved up.

First Runner Up: Hello, I’m the guy who traded Gallen and Kyle Lewis for Clevinger in dynasty last February. Clearly I stink at ‘consolidation’ trades. Any indicators I should look toward to avoid these mistakes again?

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think it was a bad process trade. You were getting the best player and it there was no guarantee that Lewis would stick in the majors. I wouldn’t move off the strategy.

Jesse: Who do you think could be a lights out fantasy relevant middle reliever in 2021? Kinda like Williams and Karinchiak were this year

Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote about how to target them here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-to-target-middle-relievers/

El Guapo: Is Paddack a key part of Padres rotation in 2021?

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to interesting to value in 2021. He’s likely the 4th or 5th starter with several nice arms in the minors.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s close to being a Matt Boyd/Robbie Ray clone. Two pitches and the fastball gets hit around.

El Guapo: Is Teoscar a top 30 OF next year?

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to be drafted as one.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve done some digging on him and I’m not sure I buy into the breakout. I want to see how the park effects effect his projections first. Buffalo was Coors East

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Let’s talk some baseball

Guest: What’s your outlook for Pearson in dynasty? Elbow concerns scare you enough to sell at all?

Paul Sporer: I always have some concern with young arms in dynasty, but I’m more apt to buy than sell right now as his price has taken a hit

JC: Keep Winker, Edward Cabrera, or Nate Pearson next year?

Paul Sporer: Need more context… team count, league type, etc…

JC: 12 team points league. I’m loaded and playing for now.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m writing a retrospect on this unique fantasy baseball season to use for future reference. It’ll be on how leagues & owners should change their approach and setup based on this year’s many constraints. If you have anything to add, just let me know especially those in keeper or dynasty formats since I’m not in any.

$11 Worth of Taco Bell: Another chat? What did I do wrong?

Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing. I’d rather not have to spend a weekend night babysitting those sweating their FAAB choices. At least for another 6 months

jake: drop Wilmer Flores for Nate Lowe in a league with 10 weekly transactions?

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. I think Lowe > Flores but the extra games might push Flores higher.

jake: Sorry about repeat question but I forgot to include 1 guy: Mitch Keller, Tanner Houck, or Joe Musgrove?

Jeff Zimmerman: Hello. One last week.

Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the Tout Wars 15-team mixed league FAAB bids

Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

Jeff Zimmerman: NLowe: $162
JrgLopez: $130
KBubic: $82
KHayes: $39
JTomlin: $35
ADeSclafani: $30
JGyorko: $30
GCooper: $14
KAkin: $6
THouck: $5
TONeill: $3
BCrawford: $1
MGarver: $1
TNaquin: $1
HNeris: $0

Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

Jeff Zimmerman: YHirano: $178
NLowe: $87
AVoth: $82
KAkin: $82
RLopez: $64
TPham: $36
HCastro: $25
LTorrens: $19
YGomes: $17
AMills: $13
ZBritton: $3
SHuff: $0

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Let’s talk some baseball!

Travis: Would love to hear your thoughts about the difference between Corbin Burnes and say a Nick Pivetta.  Both had homer issues, one of them solved it and the other didn’t.  What were the differences between the two that you identified at the time?  Did you expect this outcome?  (Another one to consider is Luis Castillo’s 2018)

Paul Sporer: Burnes actually made alterations in an attempt to fix his HR issues whereas Pivetta just kept doing the same stuff. Burnes has completely revamped his arsenal to fuel these improvements this year

Greg: Bo Bichette a top 15 asset in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Pretty close for sure

Larry: I thought I hit the jackpot with Dustin May this year. What’s your level of confidence that he can miss more bats?

Jeff Zimmerman: Hello everyone

Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the FAAB results from the two 15-team mixed leagues.

Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

Jeff Zimmerman: HBader: $158
AlexReyes: $66
RDolis: $56
JUrena: $40
DStewart: $38
TAntone: $31
MRojas: $21
BSinger: $21
TPham: $19
JWalsh: $13
TWatson: $2
DPeralta: $1
VVelasquez: $1

Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

Jeff Zimmerman: JRojas: $147
CMullins: $139
BSinger: $38
SBarlow: $32
MMinor: $32
SAkiyama: $32
LGarcia: $31
RJeffers: $21
JWalsh: $16
AniSanchez: $15
TClarke: $15
EOlivares: $15
HHarvey: $14
WCalhoun: $11
KCalhoun: $11
KBubic: $11
SCrichton: $6
TFlowers: $4
JMarmolejos: $4
RGuzman: $3
AKirk: $2

Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone! Had to move to Thursday, but here we go!

Scotty: Logan Gilbert or Brendan McKay in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I’m going with McKay, but Gilbert is definitely to be fully aware of for the future

Greg: Small sample and fewer innings than most, but what’s your read on Plesac? Can he be a top 30 SP next year?

Paul Sporer: I buy into him a good bit bc of the pitch mix changes that have fostered his strikeout surge (drop in FB, surge in SL). I also really buy into CLE’s pitching development so that adds to my interest. I don’t know if he’ll make my top 30, but he won’t be too far out of it if he doesn’t

Kyle: What’s your analysis on Tristan McKenzie? Long term keeper or sell high?