Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s finally nice to get a bit of free agent move with Ray and Smyly signing deals

11:06
S: Do you know how projection systems are handling the shortened season? I imagine they have to be using some cross validation techniques but can’t seem to find anything speaking specifically to this point.

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: Most weigh each season by PA and a of total. For example, it might be 50% previous, 30% two years back and 20% from three years.

11:09
Jeff Zimmerman: For a normal three seasons, it might by 40 HR, 20 HR, 20 HR with 600 PA’s for a projection of 30 HR.

11:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Now assume 13 HR (200 PA) and the 20 for the other two season (600 PA). The projection is weighted to the 20’s and would be not be all the way to 30 this time.

11:11
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Chances of a Civale breakout?

11:12
Jeff Zimmerman: Good

11:13
Jeff Zimmerman: He fell apart late, but all the pieces are there.

11:14
Jeff Zimmerman: He improved his walk and strikeout rate while throwing a cutter more

11:14
Isolated Thinker: Generally speaking in redraft leagues, around what round do you think Chris Sale should be drafted as a DL stash?

11:16
Jeff Zimmerman: I would focus on ADP, but maybe the 18th round or so. Depending the league rules, I might take Sale and Severino on a turn because once one of the big three TJS returnees is picked, the others will go soon after that.

11:16
DynastyOwner: Is Wander the type of prospect you over pay for now, even if you’re a serious contender next year? I try to stay grounded on prospect hype, but it seems many consider him the exception the rule. I find myself want a piece of that action.

11:18
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d just pay the normal cost. I’m a little worried heal turn in to Corey Seager. Good but no steals. The guys at Rotowire just did pod talking about him and how the steals may dry up as Franco bulks up.

11:19
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Better strategy in only leagues next year: ace + relief ace + enough cheap ratio guys to get IP minimum, or load up on decent starters (but no ace) + relief ace?

11:20
Jeff Zimmerman: I like the decent approach if possible. The problem is that SP’s are getting too much inflation and aren’t worth their value.

11:21
Jeff Zimmerman: With the lack of pitching, I’m focusing more and more on them trying to find deals now.

11:21
Guest: Do you expect Clevinger to pitch an “normal” 2022 in the second year of his new contract?

11:22
Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll probably be in the 140 to 160 IP range.

11:22
stepheng: Are starting pitchers going to become more stratified in terms of workload?  I’m assuming there will still be a group of elite guys who can push 200+ IP but wonder if everyone else will struggle to break 160 -170.

11:23
Jeff Zimmerman: This is a major issue going forward and applies to comment I made earlier where some some guys will be pushed up with FOMO on the mind.

11:25
Jeff Zimmerman: It happened to me in a league last year where Paddack ended up my ace, but I leaded up on so much hitting, I cruised to a win.

11:25
Guest: A.L. Salary decisions….do I extend K Lewis by a year from $ to 10$15? Alvarez for two years from $4 to $14 and Bichette two years from 7 to $17?

11:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on #1 and #3. I’m worried about Alvarez and would make the deal and see if you can trade him off.

11:26
PB&Js: I can’t figure out how to peg Yandy Diaz’s playing time next season. It’s probably a fool’s errand for any Ray, but am I wrong to thing he’s one of the few lineup “regulars”?

11:27
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not close to being a regular, especially if Franco is called up. There is talk of Franco playing 3B

11:28
Jeff Zimmerman: I think 80% is about the highest amount he could get.

11:28
The Gyrko Store Called: Will Madrigal eventually steal bases or is he strictly runs and avg/obp?

11:29
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, but I wouldn’t count on it. I plan on drafting with 5 to 10 in mind  and any others are a bonus

11:30
Buck Farmer Only: Daniel Lynch: frontline guy, useable backend guy, future reliever, or bust?

11:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Usable backend for now. It’s so tough to evaluate minor leaguers right now. I think the fantasy managers who stay on top of them will really have an advantage next year.

11:31
Guest: How do you project Jared Walsh after his impressive month of baseball in LAA?  Is he a $10 keeper in an AL only Dynasty League?

11:32
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is good and has been for a season or two. The problem is that he has a broken Hall of Famer ahead of him on the depth chart and Ohtani filling the DH spot.

11:33
Jeff Zimmerman: If he can get full-time at-bats, buy in immediately.

11:33
Buck Farmer Only: Keep Marco Gonzalez for last slot  if he only costs a couple bucks and you have no one else better?

11:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Sure, but be ready to release him if he struggles.

11:34
Buck Farmer Only: Best middle class AL only 1B?

11:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Tellez, Nunez

11:34
Buck Farmer Only: Will Franchy Cordero get enough playing time to draft as a $1 OF?

11:36
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but I like Olivares.

11:37
Jeff Zimmerman: The Royals are interesting in that besides Perez and maybe Mondesi, they are just a bunch of 1 War players with no upside. To start winning, they need to add some real talent somewhere in the lineup.

11:37
viceroy: Is Randy top 100? Where would he be in OF

11:38
Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll easily go in the top 100 but I have no idea among OFer’s (I don’t ever rank players in a position).

11:38
Alabama Only: Framber Valdez or McCullers?

11:40
Jeff Zimmerman: Valdez for me but they are close

11:41
Buck Farmer Only: when does Kelenic get called up?

11:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Definately

11:41
bobsyouruncle: Will we see players struggling to adjust to losing in-game video replay bounce back?

11:42
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure on how much I buy the struggles were from video. They may just bounce back from normal regression.

11:42
samja: Kim Ng has to be one of the most qualified first-time GMs ever right

11:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Easily

11:42
Billy Butler’s 3B Glove: Who have you finally given up on?

11:43
Jeff Zimmerman: A Berrios or Urias breakout. Both have hit a wall

11:43
Isolated Thinker: How much does playing in Buffalo over Toronto affect Blue Jays’ ADP/projections?

11:44
Jeff Zimmerman: It shouldn’t matter with projections since they take into account park factors. Many drafters ignore projections so I could see the Jays get a little too much love.

11:45
Peter: Do you think there will be more/bigger values in drafts this year with over-reactions to 2020 performance? Wondering if keeper leagues should have a higher net value threshold when deciding on keepers as a result…

11:45
Jeff Zimmerman: I think there will be ton of values for those willing to dig deep.

11:46
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m just not sure if people will ignore or overweight 2020. That is the best part of the upcoming season.

11:46
Alex Jones: 10 NL only OBP league, keep 1 of the 3

11:46
Alex Jones: $1 Varsho, $1 Cronenworth, $4 Nimmo

11:46
Jeff Zimmerman: Crone

11:46
Billy Butler’s 3B Glove: Should leagues drop IP minimums by 10%?

11:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Possibly even more. My AL-only went from 1100 to 900 (10 pitchers).

11:47
Disappointments: In my league, Javy Baez’s price stills seems influenced by his potential more than his production. (It’s an OBP league.) Who are some other players, particularly vets, who you see as getting a price bump for potential more than production?

11:48
Jeff Zimmerman: On the vet side … hummm.

11:49
Jeff Zimmerman: Trout in roto leagues

11:49
Jeff Zimmerman: There used to be several like Altuve and Correa, but I’m having problems picking some out now

11:50
Jon: 12 team 5×5 roto. Already keeping degrom ($36), Acuna ($41), Wander ($4), Bichette ($20), Tucker ($17), and Woodruff ($16). Which of the following 2 would you keep? Judge $28, Grisham $5, Torres $18, or Vlad $18.

11:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Grisham and …… Vlad. I don’t like the second options at all.

11:51
RMR: Not sure if you do any dynasty leagues, but if so, what’s your rough rankings look like for FYPD (OBP if possible)?  I’m struggling with how to rank these guys after the top 3 (Tork, Veen, Martin).

11:52
Jeff Zimmerman: I dropped my dynasty leagues, too much to track so I’m not your person to ask.

11:52
Billy Butler’s 3B Glove: If KC stays in-house, who closes?

11:53
Jeff Zimmerman: For now, I think it’s Staumont. Possibly Barlow

11:55
Jeff Zimmerman: That looks like it for the day. Talk to everyone next week. -Jeff





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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