Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman by Jeff Zimmerman October 20, 2020 11:01 El Guapo: Is Paddack a key part of Padres rotation in 2021? 11:02 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to interesting to value in 2021. He’s likely the 4th or 5th starter with several nice arms in the minors. 11:03 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s close to being a Matt Boyd/Robbie Ray clone. Two pitches and the fastball gets hit around. 11:03 El Guapo: Is Teoscar a top 30 OF next year? 11:03 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to be drafted as one. 11:04 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve done some digging on him and I’m not sure I buy into the breakout. I want to see how the park effects effect his projections first. Buffalo was Coors East 11:04 Le Tired: Hi Jeff, thanks for the chat! Trying to decide on final 2 keepers. 15-keeper, 12 team, $150 salary, roto but counts walks and QS. Options are: 11:04 Le Tired: sorry, hit return too early. Options are: Yandy, Solak, Cronenworth, Gausman, Dunning, all for $2, Melancon for $5.50. Offense is stacked (Betts, Soto, Lindor, Belli, Seager, Rendon, more) pitching is weak (Snell, Ryu, Gonsolin are only 3 pitchers). What do you think? 11:05 Jeff Zimmerman: Right now, it’s Dunning and Solack 11:05 Jeff Zimmerman: I might add Gausman depending on where he signs. 11:05 Jimbozo: Is Jared Walsh for real? Top 200 guy at least for 2021? 11:06 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I just hope the Angels don’t mess with his playing time. Pujols needs to be sitting. 11:06 Pump up the Jam: What do you make of Ketel Marte? Top 5 2B option still? 11:07 Jeff Zimmerman: First, the 2B position might be a wasteland or OK depending on sites position requirements. 11:07 Jeff Zimmerman: I like Marte and will be interested to see how far he drops in drafts. 11:08 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’ll end up in the 3-10 range. 11:08 Ed: Hi Jeff. Do you think Donaldson has one more big year in him? Top 12 3B in redraft? Or thereabouts? 11:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Quick answer is yes but let me dig for for sec … 11:09 Jeff Zimmerman: I hope this graph works: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/josh-donaldson/5038/graphs?statArr=5… 11:11 Jeff Zimmerman: 11:11 Jeff Zimmerman: I like this 5-year BABIP and wOBA charts 11:11 Jeff Zimmerman: The issue I see here is that his peaks are getting lower and lower. 11:12 I Used to be Mel Clark: 16 Team, 10-Cat, Keep Forever (No Cost) – I can keep 3. Who do you keep out of Realmuto, Moncada, Meadows, Devers, Harper? 11:13 Jeff Zimmerman: Moncada, Devers, Harper. Meadow is a platoon bat (i.e. Joc Pederson) and I never keep catchers. 11:13 Gus: In a 16-team dynasty league, would you trade Alec Bohm and AJ Puk for Ozzie Albies? I have Machado at 3B (Ke’Bryan Hayes, too) and Odor at 2B. 11:13 Jeff Zimmerman: In a heart beat 11:13 Duchess: Interesting tidbit today about Rowdy Tellez. Very small sample but didn’t seem to fare to badly against lefties either. Think we are looking at a level-up here? 11:14 Jeff Zimmerman: The news is coming in as a nice sleeper and his StatCast numbers were off the charts. 11:14 DH: Where are you ranking Ty France for next year? Is he a viable starter in a 16 team league? 11:14 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. He could be trade once the W.S. is done. 11:15 Jeff Zimmerman: I think Seattle has to make some moves, especially in the outfield 11:15 Derrick: What do you think of Kershaw moving forward? Is his 2020 resurgence legit? 11:16 Jeff Zimmerman: Resurgence? He’s been the same for the 3-4 seasons. Good in the few innings he throws and will have back issue constantly pop up. 11:16 Curtis: Do you think this postseason will influence the Dodgers to sign another veteran starting pitcher in 2021? 11:17 Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will get one, but the SP is a disaster. Beat writers keep adding Stroman in as the second best option behind Bauer. 11:18 Deathclaw: Banking on Ryu as a top 25 guy next year? Nothing he does screams that he should be doing what he does other than craftiness similar to Kyle Hendricks 11:19 Jeff Zimmerman: Ryu’s production is fine. He doesn’t allow walks or home runs while striking out a resonable number of batters. 11:19 Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll easily go in the top-25 pitchers and deserve to. 11:19 B: Is Luke Voit a legit keeper in a top 50 way? He was injured in the postseason makes me worried 11:20 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s close. I think he’s similar to Matt Olson and Pete Alonso. Lot’s of homers and nothing else. 11:20 Jon: Dom Smith: Long-term keeper or sell high? 11:21 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s time to sell high. I’m still not sure about his playing time. 11:21 Bryan in Boise: how big of a step forward will Nico Hoerner make in 2021? 11:21 Jeff Zimmerman: He has to hit the ball hard 11:22 Jeff Zimmerman: and get the ball in the air. 11:23 Jeff Zimmerman: In Barrels per batted ball, he 247 out of 257 (qualified hitters) 11:23 Jeff Zimmerman: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2… 11:24 Curtis: Which player has the biggest gap between fantasy value and real life value? are pitchers more likely to be the answer? 11:24 Jeff Zimmerman: Closers will be numbers, not starters 11:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Next will be low OBP hitters who can steal bases (Mondesi and Villar) 11:25 Erik Guy: In a 12 team dynasty 9 player keeper league, am I crazy to want Arozorena in the first round next year? I’m in complete rebuild after a 2019 win, and a 2020 league postponement. Is there anything in this small sample size suggesting he is the real deal? I keep hearing the Mookie Betts comp. 11:26 Jeff Zimmerman: It comes down to your other options but I could see drafts where he’s #1 11:26 Teo: How will you calculate SGP for next year? Do you average multiple years to hedge for changes in the ball (e.g. 2018/2019)? Will you factor 2020 standings in at all? 11:26 Jeff Zimmerman: Tanner Bell and I are working on it now for The Process 11:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Our thoughts are to start with 2019 and make some adjustements where we think it’s needed. 11:27 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll have a better idea in a week or two as we dive through some changes. 11:28 Deathclaw: Is there any difference between Trent Grisham and Kyle Tucker? 11:28 Jeff Zimmerman: Not a whole lot 11:28 Deathclaw: Will you have shares of Musgrove next year? Had the most interesting sample of his career this year. 11:29 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not on my do not draft list, but it comes down to his cost. His 2020 was surprisingly decent. 11:29 Joey T: First year ottoneu player, any advice on arbitration? 11:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Just hammer the top teams as much as possible and start getting the rookie prices up. 11:30 Steve: Biggio 2b/ss/of or Gleyber ss In Nfbc 11:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Neither right now. 11:31 Jeff Zimmerman: I think I can wait on non-SB SS and Biggio’s AVG is a killer 11:31 Deathclaw: Can Will Smith be the next top catcher in baseball 11:32 Jeff Zimmerman: Not while he’s on the Dodgers. I think they will almost limit his playing time and he won’t DH with all the options on the team. The Catcher/DH’s will be the best guys going forward. 11:32 Curtis: Which player’s postseason will cause him to be either overvalued the most for 2021? How about undervalued? 11:33 Jeff Zimmerman: Randy A is easily number one on overvalued 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure on undervalued … Bieber with the bad start. 11:34 Deathclaw: Who are some affordable or sleeper options for speed that you may target next year? 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: You tell me … I need some. 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: Keep an eye on Gimenez’s playing time in NY. If a fulltime player, he could be worth 20+ SBs 11:35 Benny: Do you have any info. as to how fantasy leagues will deal with positional eligibility requirements for next year? Minimum starts? 11:35 Jeff Zimmerman: The only place I’ve head from is CBS who moved theirs down to 10 11:35 Deathclaw: Is David Dahl worth another shot later in drafts? The injuries are so depressing. 11:36 Jeff Zimmerman: No, let someone else deal with the injury and platoon mess. He’s completely unstartable outside of COL 11:36 Guest: In a keep 8 league with QS and k/bb as added categories, how do you rank Clevinger, Snell, Burnes, Bundy? 11:37 Jeff Zimmerman: Damn … that’s tough 11:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s your order but maybe Burnes over Snell 11:37 B: Who to leave out ten team roto keeper: Goldie, JDM, Verdugo, Ketel? 11:38 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s time to move on from JDM 11:38 Dinelson Lamet: Are you scared off by my injury? Should I be kept? 11:39 Jeff Zimmerman: Until he throws in ST, I will not roster him on a team. 11:39 Remember to Vote: Will Buxton be underrated due to his injuries? 11:39 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s getting there. 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: But there is always someone who jumps on that upside and he’s gone by the 10th round 11:40 Remember to Vote: Best Royals pitching prospect to stash? 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Singer 11:40 Remember to Vote: What rule change should all fantasy leagues make? 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Replace Wins with IP 11:40 Remember to Vote: How did The Process come together? 11:41 Jeff Zimmerman: I had a bunch of extra time after my divorce and Tanner had a ton of ideas, so we combined it and will keep working on it. 11:41 Remember to Vote: Biggest closer landmine in each league? 11:42 Jeff Zimmerman: Everyone 11:42 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s a nightmare out there. 11:42 Bubic Plague: Any AL catchers to target on the cheap? 11:43 Jeff Zimmerman: Samuel Huff of Texas 11:43 Dayton Moore Talking Head: Which player are you still irrationally positive on? 11:43 Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton. I think he’s a blast to watch … when he plays 11:44 Curtis: Other than “grit” and “determination”, etc… are there any aspects of baseball that haven’t been “analyticized”? 11:44 Jeff Zimmerman: Health … at least for he public. Not enough data. 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Desire to improve 11:45 Nick: What’s the level of concern for Yelich? 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: High 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s the strikeouts 11:46 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d like to hear on a reason why but he seems to be too proud to state why. 11:46 Dented Garbage Can: Will Odorizzi bounce back? 11:46 Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t count on it. 11:46 Guest: I’m in a 30 team dynasty league and my OF depth is rather sick in terms of prospects. Of this list who which two would you trade away for assets: Drew Waters, George Valera, Misael Urbina, Kristian Robinson, and Jasson Dominguez 11:48 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d put this out this quote and see how bites. Usually there is someone higher on one of the guys but the problem is finding out who. 11:48 B: Okay how to order on roto keeper: Bohm, Robert, Teoscar, Alonso, Yordan. Verdugo? 11:49 Jeff Zimmerman: Robert …. Yordan, Alonso, Bohm, Teoscar …. Verdugo 11:49 sam: do you play fantasy football? If so, where do you get your news? Don’t know of an nfl rotographs 🙁 11:51 Jeff Zimmerman: I have a handful of leagues. I listen to the Late-Round and Establish the Run pods. Quick and to the point. I get news from Rotowire (from baseball subcription) and Football Guys (so worth the premium sub). 11:51 Guest: Jeff you have preached not giving too much credence to 2020 performance. Who are you fading from these top ’20 performers: 11:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Start at the top of this BABIP list and work your way down: 11:51 Jeff Zimmerman: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y… 11:52 VR: Keep 3: Walsh, Ohtani (espn), Cronenworth, Framber Valdez, Ian Anderson, Lance McCullers. 12 Teams 8 keepers (my first five are lindor, yordan, jRam, giolito, Snell) 11:53 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m all upside here and Valdez, Anderson, and Ohtani. I could see going Walsh instead of Anderson 11:53 Vote: Rank these SP: McCullers, Framber Valdez, Ian Anderson, Stroman, Gonsolin. Are any top 100 players overall? 11:54 Jeff Zimmerman: Top 100: Valdez and Anderson. Then McCullers, Gonsolin, Stroman 11:54 Isolated Thinker: Which players have the best argument for the 2021 consensus #1 overall pick? 11:55 Jeff Zimmerman: Betts, Trout, Soto, Cole, Bauer, Bieber, Tatis, Acuna 11:55 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s not so set IMO and I won’t mind a lower pick this year. 11:55 Dayton Moore Talking Head: Buy low on Jo Adell? 11:56 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe … he has to be basically free 11:56 Peppercorn: How much do you think the 2earlymocks shape the first few months of early drafting? 11:57 Jeff Zimmerman: Some. I like looking at 200 on to find sleepers. Steamer and Zola’s projections will matter more. 11:57 Ontilt1377: 14 team roto, 10 keep, $300 budget, – pick 1 – $35 JDM, $5 Teoscar or $5 Winker? 11:57 Jeff Zimmerman: Teoscar 11:57 Guest: RE: BABIB list – no one is buying Conforto or Adames and you’re crazy if you fade Tim Anderson, Freeman, Soto, Lemahieu, Story, Tuner because of a high BABIP. Is there any actionable information there other than watch out for Mondesi and Teoscar? 11:58 Jeff Zimmerman: Then I’m crazy. 11:58 Gary: Who do you better for 2021: Clint Frazier or Alec Bohm? 11:58 Jeff Zimmerman: I think Bohm on talent and playing time. 11:58 B: Do you think Alonso will bounce back? Average risk? Who would you prefer, him or Dom Smith? 11:59 Jeff Zimmerman: I like Alonso, but not at his 2020 prices. I think he needs to go around Matt Olson 11:59 whiney: How would you rank/value Altuve for 2021 points league? 11:59 Jeff Zimmerman: Decent. 2B is such a wasteland 12:00 Big Joey: 12 team mixed, H2H, 7×7 (extra categories are OBP, SLG, L, Hlds on top of the traditional 5×5)… Keep-forever (6 total). Bellinger, Eloy and Garret Cole are an easy 3, but I need 3 more from this group: M Ozuna, Voit, Albies, G Torres, Fried, Y Alvarez, DJ LeMaheu. 12:01 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d go off age with Albies, Torres, and Alvarez. Now, if you are going for it next year, I’d add DJ in place of Alvarez 12:01 Zuleta: Only 1 SB for Trout this year, is it time to take him out of the #1 overall discussion with other 5 cat contributors available? 12:02 Jeff Zimmerman: My thoughts are that he provides a great base and the 1 SB could jump to 10. 12:02 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m guessing it’s Soto, Betts, or a SP for me 12:02 Big Joey: Are you worried about Gleyber Torres long-term? Does this guy become a superstar in the next few years? 12:04 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure how. He’s basically Xander Bogarts but maybe a little worse. Good, not elite. 12:04 Jeff Zimmerman: The chat is done and I’ll be back next week.