Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:01
El Guapo: Is Paddack a key part of Padres rotation in 2021?

11:02
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to interesting to value in 2021. He’s likely the 4th or 5th starter with several nice arms in the minors.

11:03
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s close to being a Matt Boyd/Robbie Ray clone. Two pitches and the fastball gets hit around.

11:03
El Guapo: Is Teoscar a top 30 OF next year?

11:03
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to be drafted as one.

11:04
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve done some digging on him and I’m not sure I buy into the breakout. I want to see how the park effects effect his projections first. Buffalo was Coors East

11:04
Le Tired: Hi Jeff, thanks for the chat! Trying to decide on final 2 keepers. 15-keeper, 12 team, $150 salary, roto but counts walks and QS. Options are:

11:04
Le Tired: sorry, hit return too early. Options are: Yandy, Solak, Cronenworth, Gausman, Dunning, all for $2, Melancon for $5.50. Offense is stacked (Betts, Soto, Lindor, Belli, Seager, Rendon, more) pitching is weak (Snell, Ryu, Gonsolin are only 3 pitchers). What do you think?

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Right now, it’s Dunning and Solack

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: I might add Gausman depending on where he signs.

11:05
Jimbozo: Is Jared Walsh for real? Top 200 guy at least for 2021?

11:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I just hope the Angels don’t mess with his playing time. Pujols needs to be sitting.

11:06
Pump up the Jam: What do you make of Ketel Marte? Top 5 2B option still?

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: First, the 2B position might be a wasteland or OK depending on sites position requirements.

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: I like Marte and will be interested to see how far he drops in drafts.

11:08
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’ll end up in the 3-10 range.

11:08
Ed: Hi Jeff. Do you think Donaldson has one more big year in him? Top 12 3B in redraft? Or thereabouts?

11:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Quick answer is yes but let me dig for for sec …

11:09
11:11
Jeff Zimmerman:

11:11
Jeff Zimmerman: I like this 5-year BABIP and wOBA charts

11:11
Jeff Zimmerman: The issue I see here is that his peaks are getting lower and lower.

11:12
I Used to be Mel Clark: 16 Team, 10-Cat, Keep Forever (No Cost) – I can keep 3. Who do you keep out of Realmuto, Moncada, Meadows, Devers, Harper?

11:13
Jeff Zimmerman: Moncada, Devers, Harper. Meadow is a platoon bat (i.e. Joc Pederson) and I never keep catchers.

11:13
Gus: In a 16-team dynasty league, would you trade Alec Bohm and AJ Puk for Ozzie Albies? I have Machado at 3B (Ke’Bryan Hayes, too) and Odor at 2B.

11:13
Jeff Zimmerman: In a heart beat

11:13
Duchess: Interesting tidbit today about Rowdy Tellez. Very small sample but didn’t seem to fare to badly against lefties either. Think we are looking at a level-up here?

11:14
Jeff Zimmerman: The news is coming in as a nice sleeper and his StatCast numbers were off the charts.

11:14
DH: Where are you ranking Ty France for next year? Is he a viable starter in a 16 team league?

11:14
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. He could be trade once the W.S. is done.

11:15
Jeff Zimmerman: I think Seattle has to make some moves, especially in the outfield

11:15
Derrick: What do you think of Kershaw moving forward? Is his 2020 resurgence legit?

11:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Resurgence? He’s been the same for the 3-4 seasons. Good in the few innings he throws and will have back issue constantly pop up.

11:16
Curtis: Do you think this postseason will influence the Dodgers to sign another veteran starting pitcher in 2021?

11:17
Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will get one, but the SP is a disaster. Beat writers keep adding Stroman in as the second best option behind Bauer.

11:18
Deathclaw: Banking on Ryu as a top 25 guy next year? Nothing he does screams that he should be doing what he does other than craftiness similar to Kyle Hendricks

11:19
Jeff Zimmerman: Ryu’s production is fine. He doesn’t allow walks or home runs while striking out a resonable number of batters.

11:19
Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll easily go in the top-25 pitchers and deserve to.

11:19
B: Is Luke Voit a legit keeper in a top 50 way?  He was injured in the postseason makes me worried

11:20
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s close. I think he’s similar to Matt Olson and Pete Alonso. Lot’s of homers and nothing else.

11:20
Jon: Dom Smith: Long-term keeper or sell high?

11:21
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s time to sell high. I’m still not sure about his playing time.

11:21
Bryan in Boise: how big of a step forward will Nico Hoerner make in 2021?

11:21
Jeff Zimmerman: He has to hit the ball hard

11:22
Jeff Zimmerman: and get the ball in the air.

11:23
Jeff Zimmerman: In Barrels per batted ball, he 247 out of 257 (qualified hitters)

11:24
Curtis: Which player has the biggest gap between fantasy value and real life value?  are pitchers more likely to be the answer?

11:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Closers will be numbers, not starters

11:25
Jeff Zimmerman: Next will be low OBP hitters who can steal bases (Mondesi and Villar)

11:25
Erik Guy: In a 12 team dynasty 9 player keeper league, am I crazy to want Arozorena in the first round next year?  I’m in complete rebuild after a 2019 win, and a 2020 league postponement. Is there anything in this small sample size suggesting he is the real deal? I keep hearing the Mookie Betts comp.

11:26
Jeff Zimmerman: It comes down to your other options but I could see drafts where he’s #1

11:26
Teo: How will you calculate SGP for next year? Do you average multiple years to hedge for changes in the ball (e.g. 2018/2019)? Will you factor 2020 standings in at all?

11:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Tanner Bell and I are working on it now for The Process

11:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Our thoughts are to start with 2019 and make some adjustements where we think it’s needed.

11:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll have a better idea in a week or two as we dive through some changes.

11:28
Deathclaw: Is there any difference between Trent Grisham and Kyle Tucker?

11:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Not a whole lot

11:28
Deathclaw: Will you have shares of Musgrove next year? Had the most interesting sample of his career this year.

11:29
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not on my do not draft list, but it comes down to his cost. His 2020 was surprisingly decent.

11:29
Joey T: First year ottoneu player, any advice on arbitration?

11:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Just hammer the top teams as much as possible and start getting the rookie prices up.

11:30
Steve: Biggio 2b/ss/of or Gleyber ss In Nfbc

11:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Neither right now.

11:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I think I can wait on non-SB SS and Biggio’s AVG is a killer

11:31
Deathclaw: Can Will Smith be the next top catcher in baseball

11:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Not while he’s on the Dodgers. I think they will almost limit his playing time and he won’t DH with all the options on the team. The Catcher/DH’s will be the best guys going forward.

11:32
Curtis: Which player’s postseason will cause him to be either overvalued the most for 2021?  How about undervalued?

11:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Randy A is easily number one on overvalued

11:34
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure on undervalued … Bieber with the bad start.

11:34
Deathclaw: Who are some affordable or sleeper options for speed that you may target next year?

11:34
Jeff Zimmerman: You tell me … I need some.

11:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Keep an eye on Gimenez’s playing time in NY. If a fulltime player, he could be worth 20+ SBs

11:35
Benny: Do you have any info. as to how fantasy leagues will deal with positional eligibility requirements for next year?  Minimum starts?

11:35
Jeff Zimmerman: The only place I’ve head from is CBS who moved theirs down to 10

11:35
Deathclaw: Is David Dahl worth another shot later in drafts? The injuries are so depressing.

11:36
Jeff Zimmerman: No, let someone else deal with the injury and platoon mess. He’s completely unstartable outside of COL

11:36
Guest: In a keep 8 league with QS and k/bb as added categories, how do you rank Clevinger, Snell, Burnes, Bundy?

11:37
Jeff Zimmerman: Damn … that’s tough

11:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s your order but maybe Burnes over Snell

11:37
B: Who to leave out ten team roto keeper:  Goldie, JDM, Verdugo, Ketel?

11:38
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s time to move on from JDM

11:38
Dinelson Lamet: Are you scared off by my injury? Should I be kept?

11:39
Jeff Zimmerman: Until he throws in ST, I will not roster him on a team.

11:39
Remember to Vote: Will Buxton be underrated due to his injuries?

11:39
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s getting there.

11:40
Jeff Zimmerman: But there is always someone who jumps on that upside and he’s gone by the 10th round

11:40
Remember to Vote: Best Royals pitching prospect to stash?

11:40
Jeff Zimmerman: Singer

11:40
Remember to Vote: What rule change should all fantasy leagues make?

11:40
Jeff Zimmerman: Replace Wins with IP

11:40
Remember to Vote: How did The Process come together?

11:41
Jeff Zimmerman: I had a bunch of extra time after my divorce and Tanner had a ton of ideas, so we combined it and will keep working on it.

11:41
Remember to Vote: Biggest closer landmine in each league?

11:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Everyone

11:42
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s a nightmare out there.

11:42
Bubic Plague: Any AL catchers to target on the cheap?

11:43
Jeff Zimmerman: Samuel Huff of Texas

11:43
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Which player are you still irrationally positive on?

11:43
Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton. I think he’s a blast to watch … when he plays

11:44
Curtis: Other than “grit” and “determination”, etc… are there any aspects of baseball that haven’t been “analyticized”?

11:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Health … at least for he public. Not enough data.

11:45
Jeff Zimmerman: Desire to improve

11:45
Nick: What’s the level of concern for Yelich?

11:45
Jeff Zimmerman: High

11:45
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s the strikeouts

11:46
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d like to hear on a reason why but he seems to be too proud to state why.

11:46
Dented Garbage Can: Will Odorizzi bounce back?

11:46
Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t count on it.

11:46
Guest: I’m in a 30 team dynasty league and my OF depth is rather sick in terms of prospects. Of this list who which two would you trade away for assets: Drew Waters, George Valera, Misael Urbina, Kristian Robinson, and Jasson Dominguez

11:48
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d put this out this quote and see how bites. Usually there is someone higher on one of the guys but the problem is finding out who.

11:48
B: Okay how to order on roto keeper:  Bohm, Robert, Teoscar, Alonso, Yordan.  Verdugo?

11:49
Jeff Zimmerman: Robert …. Yordan, Alonso, Bohm, Teoscar …. Verdugo

11:49
sam: do you play fantasy football? If so, where do you get your news? Don’t know of an nfl rotographs 🙁

11:51
Jeff Zimmerman: I have a handful of leagues. I listen to the Late-Round and Establish the Run pods. Quick and to the point. I get news from Rotowire (from baseball subcription) and Football Guys (so worth the premium sub).

11:51
Guest: Jeff you have preached not giving too much credence to 2020 performance.  Who are you fading from these top ’20 performers:

11:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Start at the top of this BABIP list and work your way down:

11:52
VR: Keep 3: Walsh, Ohtani (espn), Cronenworth, Framber Valdez, Ian Anderson, Lance McCullers. 12 Teams 8 keepers  (my first five are lindor, yordan, jRam, giolito, Snell)

11:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m all upside here and Valdez, Anderson, and Ohtani. I could see going Walsh instead of Anderson

11:53
Vote: Rank these SP: McCullers, Framber Valdez, Ian Anderson, Stroman, Gonsolin. Are any top 100 players overall?

11:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Top 100: Valdez and Anderson. Then McCullers, Gonsolin, Stroman

11:54
Isolated Thinker: Which players have the best argument for the 2021 consensus #1 overall pick?

11:55
Jeff Zimmerman: Betts, Trout, Soto, Cole, Bauer, Bieber, Tatis, Acuna

11:55
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s not so set IMO and I won’t mind a lower pick this year.

11:55
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Buy low on Jo Adell?

11:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe … he has to be basically free

11:56
Peppercorn: How much do you think the 2earlymocks shape the first few months of early drafting?

11:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Some. I like looking at 200 on to find sleepers. Steamer and Zola’s projections will matter more.

11:57
Ontilt1377: 14 team roto, 10 keep, $300 budget, – pick 1 – $35 JDM, $5 Teoscar or $5 Winker?

11:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Teoscar

11:57
Guest: RE: BABIB list – no one is buying Conforto or Adames and you’re crazy if you fade Tim Anderson, Freeman, Soto, Lemahieu, Story, Tuner because of a high BABIP.  Is there any actionable information there other than watch out for Mondesi and Teoscar?

11:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Then I’m crazy.

11:58
Gary: Who do you better for 2021: Clint Frazier or Alec Bohm?

11:58
Jeff Zimmerman: I think Bohm on talent and playing time.

11:58
B: Do you think Alonso will bounce back?  Average risk?  Who would you prefer, him or Dom Smith?

11:59
Jeff Zimmerman: I like Alonso, but not at his 2020 prices. I think he needs to go around Matt Olson

11:59
whiney: How would you rank/value Altuve for 2021 points league?

11:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Decent. 2B is such a wasteland

12:00
Big Joey: 12 team mixed, H2H, 7×7 (extra categories are OBP, SLG, L, Hlds on top of the traditional 5×5)… Keep-forever (6 total). Bellinger, Eloy and Garret Cole are an easy 3, but I need 3 more from this group: M Ozuna, Voit, Albies, G Torres, Fried, Y Alvarez, DJ LeMaheu.

12:01
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d go off age with Albies, Torres, and Alvarez. Now, if you are going for it next year, I’d add DJ in place of Alvarez

12:01
Zuleta: Only 1 SB for Trout this year, is it time to take him out of the #1 overall discussion with other 5 cat contributors available?

12:02
Jeff Zimmerman: My thoughts are that he provides a great base and the 1 SB could jump to 10.

12:02
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m guessing it’s Soto, Betts, or a SP for me

12:02
Big Joey: Are you worried about Gleyber Torres long-term? Does this guy become a superstar in the next few years?

12:04
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure how. He’s basically Xander Bogarts but maybe a little worse. Good, not elite.

12:04
Jeff Zimmerman: The chat is done and I’ll be back next week.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Nice chat. I didn’t realize how “well” Mondesi hit the ball last year. By his standards, an 89 wRC+ is quite good. He was coming off an injury, and ended the season on absolute fire. He hit all of his HRs in September with a .356 batting average and 6 home runs with a 188 wRC+, and a .311 iso. He also more than doubled his walk rate, and cut his K rate. By my calculations he was actually the 32nd overall player…which was, surprising. With that said, his early season struggles would of caused people to make rash moves probably, and winning SBs by 1 is the same as winning it by 20, but, maybe there is some value there next year.