Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 23rd, 2020 by Paul Sporer September 23, 2020 Transcript is live! 1:02 Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Let’s talk some baseball 1:02 Guest: What’s your outlook for Pearson in dynasty? Elbow concerns scare you enough to sell at all? 1:04 Paul Sporer: I always have some concern with young arms in dynasty, but I’m more apt to buy than sell right now as his price has taken a hit 1:04 JC: Keep Winker, Edward Cabrera, or Nate Pearson next year? 1:04 Paul Sporer: Need more context… team count, league type, etc… 1:06 JC: 12 team points league. I’m loaded and playing for now. 1:06 Paul Sporer: I’d keep Winker 1:06 Bobby: Start/ sit Bundy vs Dodgers last day of the season 1:07 Paul Sporer: Depends if you’re protecting or chasing. I’m apt to start him as I don’t know that the Dodgers will have the A-team out 1:07 Joe: For steals this week, Pillar or JBJ? 1:11 Paul Sporer: I’ll go Pillar… likely talking 1 maybe 2 SBs from either 1:12 B: Remember when you recommended cutting Vlad one week into the season? How has he done since then? 1:16 Paul Sporer: It’s kind of embarrassing that you think this a dunk. He’s gone .263/.344/.462 with 6 HR which is fine, but how good do you really think this would play in a 10- or 12-team league? Burning & churning in shallower leagues will result in sometimes cutting someone who gets back on track. I don’t regret the recommendation in the slightest. But hey, go off… I’m sure you’re enjoying his awesome .697 OPS in September! 1:16 MD: Start or sit Dane Dunning against the Cubs Saturday? I’m protecting ERA and WHIP and chasing Ks 1:17 Paul Sporer: I’d actually go for it. The Cubs offense really isn’t doing all that well 1:17 Dave: Protecting a lead in 12 team mixed this week- start Lynn vs. Houston? 1:17 Paul Sporer: Yes, don’t sit your studs 1:17 Eyebrows: Thoughts on Alejandro Kirk in a 12-team dynasty? Is he a must add? His A-ball stats are eye-popping, but don’t know how likely it is he’s still with the major league team next year. 1:19 Paul Sporer: No, not a must-add. I’m reluctant to really go after Cs aggressively in dynasty even on the high end like Sean Murphy and Adley Rutschman, let alone a more off the radar guy like Kirk. I’m intrigued, but not goin’ nuts 1:19 RD: What will Trent Grisham’s ADP be next year? Top 50? Top 60? 1:20 Paul Sporer: His min will probably touch those heights, but I think his average will be more in the 80-90 range 1:21 B: I don’t own any Vlad and was genuinely just curious how fantasy analysts handle that kind of thing. I’m sure y’all get crap all the time for that kind of fairly bold move so early on. 1:22 Paul Sporer: It absolutely read like an attempted dunk and I’m not sure I’ll believe otherwise. At any rate, like I said I stand by the reco 1:22 Yelich: Am I still a first round pick in a ten-teamer next year? 1:32 Paul Sporer: Not necessarily in a 10-team (sorry got a phone call from a family member) 1:33 Paul Sporer: I’m not letting Yelly get beyond the 2nd round, though 1:33 Dave: Bryce and Justin Turner this week— you running them out there if they’re playing? Or do the injuries make you leery? 1:34 Paul Sporer: Yes if they’re playing, they’re in my lineup 1:34 Guest: What’s your take on Keston Huira long term? Rebound in 2021? 1:39 Paul Sporer: I had some trepidation about him coming into the season bc I felt his K% and BABIP were a bit ignored as potential issues. That said, I don’t think he’s a .215 hitter so even w/the BABIP coming down and K% staying high so if the price plummets, I’ll buy, but I suspect he’ll remain top 60 1:39 TMH: Casey Mize…how do you see him performing next year? Still a top prospect? And does Matt Manning break camp with the Tigers next year? 1:41 Paul Sporer: Still a top prospect for sure and I’ll be happy to draft him at what I think will be a fair price next yr. Manning almost certainly won’t break camp but he will be up relatively early 1:41 Don Juan: Thanks for kicking ass this year. You are one of the best and you entertained and helped all year. 1:41 Paul Sporer: Thank you so much, I appreciate that! 1:42 Pat G: Can you build too strong of a team in a Dynasty league? One where your current production and future seems so insurmountable that leaguemates just decide it isn’t worth the effort to try and catch you? 1:43 Paul Sporer: I mean, I guess that’s possible. If that happens, I’d suggest finding a league that’s closer to your competition level the next time. It’s fun to win, but I think there is a breaking point where you’re playing in a league you’re too good for and it loses its luster for sure 1:44 NJB: Does Trevor Bauer make a good point about playing in the NL Central not being his fault to why he (Yu & Burnes too) makes a case for the Cy Young? 1:48 Paul Sporer: I haven’t seen what he said but I know the Central schedule is being used against Burnes, too. It’s not their fault, but I don’t think it’s entirely unfair to at least consider it. I was advocating for picking on the Central all draft season and I’m happy w how it’s worked out. deGrom & Lamet are right there with the Central guys and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to land on one of them over Burnes/Bauer/Darvish 1:52 Joey bart simpson: I’ve got 38 innings left…figuring roughly 5-6 starts plus relievers. Got Clev, Bieber, Burnes, Ian Anderson, Gallen, Castillo, Gonsolin, Nola going. Who do I sit? Wins/WHIP most important 1:54 Paul Sporer: Think you play all the guys going these next couple days and assess where you stand day to day. I think Gonsolin’s start could be short as a playoff tune up so he might not even get a shot at a win and then Nola gets a trip to TB which isn’t great so maybe he’s the odd man out on Sunday 1:55 Bruno: Do you always play stud hitters against aces? For example, today I have Eloy and TAnderson against Bieber. I’m inclined to play them, even though I have reserves choices (such as France and DJStewart and DomSmith). 1:56 Paul Sporer: I’m a start your studs kind of guy. Now it just so happens that among your reserves is a stud in Dom Smith, he’s been insane this year and last so you could feasibly start him over Eloy, but I don’t find myself ever sitting premium bats for solid but unspectacular guys like France & Stew 1:56 Kip: I benched Max and Ryu this week in favor of 2 start Skubal and Smyly in points league finals. Was scared of both losing their start in our championship week. How dumb am I? 1:57 Paul Sporer: Dumb isn’t the right word, but I think it was a bit wrongheaded bc both pitch earlier in the week so I didn’t see that shutdown fear with either 1:57 john wick: what are your thoughts on brandon lowe long term? worth keeping in a keep 8 forever league? 1:58 Paul Sporer: Big fan. Really like his talent and think he’ll be a solid fantasy contributor for the next few years. Def a keep 8 guy 1:58 Siri: Starting Sixto tonight? H2H categories league with QS, IP, ERA and WHIP. 1:59 Paul Sporer: At the risk of being snarky, is that really a question? I know he was bopped a bit last time out, but that only moved his ERA to 2.75… def still starting 1:59 Biggy: Has your love for Cronenworth cooled off along with his BA? 1:59 Paul Sporer: No, still a big fan long-term. I absolutely expected some pullback after that blazing hot start. 2:00 Rodney: More Alejandro Kirk, or ALL the Alejandro Kirk? 2:00 Paul Sporer: Some Alejandro Kirk. I get the cult appeal, but let’s not go crazy 2:01 Guest: Does Buster Posey have value in one catcher leagues next year? 2:01 Paul Sporer: Maybe 15+ teams 2:01 Biggy: You in on Verdugo as a top 50 dynasty player? 2:01 Paul Sporer: I’m not THAT high on him 2:01 Chamaco: Top 5 xwOBA are: Freeman, Soto, Corey Seager, Harper, and…Jake Cronenworth. How would you value Cronenworth in dynasty leagues? 2:02 Paul Sporer: The next Zobrist – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rake-cronenworths-star-turn/ 2:05 jpmags: Any word on Nelson Cruz injury status? 2:07 Paul Sporer: Still day-to-day with the knee and I suspect they’ll be cautious 2:08 Ricky: How are you valuing Austin Nola in keeper leagues? He’ll lose multi-positional eligibility and hasn’t hit as well in SD. Top 10 rather than Top 5 at catcher? 2:13 Paul Sporer: I’m not worried about him losing multi-elig. bc he gains C which is all we really wanted. My main interest in him was that he could be a non-catching catcher and though we didn’t get that, I’ll still take him as a high quality catcher. I think he’s in that 5-10 range because the position is so bad right now 2:17 D: If Jared Walsh can find 450-500 PA how valuable (standard roto) do you think he can be? 2:19 Paul Sporer: Solid power option (.260, 30 HR) 2:19 Guest: Which young arm do you keep: gallen or luzardo? 2:20 Paul Sporer: Damn, got me in a corner as I love both…. I’ll go Gallen 2:20 DH: Is Ty France a keeper in a 16 team dynasty? 2:21 Paul Sporer: I’d say so, yes. He’ll almost certainly have a full time role next year with Seattle 2:21 Guest: gut feel, where is gerrit cole ranked amongst SP for 2021? 2:21 Paul Sporer: Top 3 2:21 Feddy: Drop Wilmer Flores for Josh Fuentes in a league with limited weekly acquisitions and streaming is important? 2:22 Paul Sporer: Yes, SF has a tougher schedule w/SD this weekend 2:22 Hey Jedd Move Away From There: Are you starting Gyorko over mid-tier 3B options at this point? 2:24 Paul Sporer: Kinda depends who exactly, but he’s in that mid-tier mix for sure 2:25 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out today and all season! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!