Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 16th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Let’s talk some baseball!

Travis: Would love to hear your thoughts about the difference between Corbin Burnes and say a Nick Pivetta.  Both had homer issues, one of them solved it and the other didn’t.  What were the differences between the two that you identified at the time?  Did you expect this outcome?  (Another one to consider is Luis Castillo’s 2018)

Paul Sporer: Burnes actually made alterations in an attempt to fix his HR issues whereas Pivetta just kept doing the same stuff. Burnes has completely revamped his arsenal to fuel these improvements this year

Greg: Bo Bichette a top 15 asset in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Pretty close for sure

Larry: I thought I hit the jackpot with Dustin May this year. What’s your level of confidence that he can miss more bats?

Paul Sporer: He needs a swing and miss pitch. Nasty sinkers & 2-seamers are fun and GIF-able, but not a strikeout pitch

Pete: Montas a top 20 dynasty SP? Any concerns about him long term after this year?

Paul Sporer: Love Montas and he seems to be in the clear from the back, but I’d lean more top 30 than top 20

Sonny: Have to start one: Bichette v Cole or Segura v dG tonight?

Paul Sporer: Better player – Bichette

Alex: What do you think of Alec Bohm in a large keeper league? Is he a major building block or just a solid bat?

Paul Sporer: I like him and the development of his power will determine which path he takes. He’ll be a solid fantasy player regardless, but to be a major top tier 3B, that pop needs to come through

BlueJayMatt: Derek Fisher has to get DFA’d right? Abysmal defending, real softball stuff

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s not offering too much and will likely be gone from TOR soon

Sonny: Have to win this week to keep title chances alive, any targets to blow out remaining FAAB? Walsh, DJ Stew, and Duvall all available. Rank them in OBP/RC/K league?

Paul Sporer: I’d go for Duvall.

Travis: There always seem to be relievers who break out, like Devin Williams.  If you see a pix mix / velo change like he had, how many innings at what K rate do you want to see before you grab a guy?  I think for Williams, I grabbed him after like 4IP because his whiff rate was so high.

Paul Sporer: There is no set number, you just have to check the RP pool early on ever year and identify some of those high K/swinging strike rate guys and jump on some of the gems. There are so many paths to that success so it’s hard to key in on one thing. Williams has been SO damn fun to watch, though

gl: Is Profar finally 10-team relevant?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, still fringy in 10-teamers

Scott: Trust Caleb Smith tonight? Protecting ERA

Paul Sporer: I don’t trust him if I’m protecting ERA

Strategic benching: I am new to roto but find myself in first by a comfortable but not inevitable margin in my league’s one-off redraft (our h2h dynasty is on pause). When should I start strategically benching and any tips for how to go about it?

Paul Sporer: Not sure that’s a viable strategy this year given that we’re playing such a short season. I wouldn’t mess with that kind of chicanery.

DynastyDecisions?: I hate having to drop players in dynasty leagues during the playoffs. I had to drop Gausman with the elbow issue and now he’s on another teams roster….Another owner had to drop Clark Schmidt, should I waste a move for this year to grab him?

Paul Sporer: Ehh, I wouldn’t be bending over backwards to roster Schmidt

Guest: I need a QS tomorrow: Canning vs AZ, T. Anderson vs SEA or Eovaldi @ MIA

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure Canning & Eovaldi will be given the six innings so by process of elimination, I’ll take Anderson

seth lugoat: do you buy my breakout?  am i degrom lite?  second best pitcher on the mets??

Paul Sporer: I do buy it, he has the velo & depth of arsenal to hold up. I was actually pretty high on Lugo when he went to the rotation in ’17 and it flopped but another two years of awesomeness in the pen and now he gets another crack at starting. He’s a stud

gl: No that he’s getting ABs in SEA are you a Francophile?

Paul Sporer: I highlighted Ty France last week – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/hitters-available-under-40-cuttable-at-6…

Brock: Tyrone Taylor is mashing in a tiny sample size. Are you intrigued?

Paul Sporer: Moderately. He’s probably more than a 4th OF, but not a stud starting OF. Ride it out for ’20 and we can reassess this offseason

Armadillofury: Is Moncada droppable now?

Paul Sporer: Nah. He’s talked about how COVID has hampered him throughout, but I’m still hanging on unless it’s a super shallow league with great options on the wire

Sum: hey Paul! on Sunday, do you like Gonsolin @ COL or Dunning @ CIN?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Gonsolin fan, but I have to go Dunning there. I can’t put my late season fantasy hopes on someone in Coors

D: Looks like Corbin Burnes deserves to at least be in the CYA convo this year. How much of that talent do you think he can bring going forward. He frontline for you?

Paul Sporer: What’s the CYA convo?

Filet MinYoan: Teoscar – SSS or legit breakout?

Paul Sporer: A mix. There weren’t major changes in his approach or anything, but he was smacking the piss out of the ball so it wasn’t just a fluke or anything. He’ll be overdrafted next year for sure

Guest: How legit is Mountcastle? .300 avg + 20 homers next season?

Paul Sporer: That’s possible as an upside, but not a baseline projection. I’d lean more .275 for AVG proj.

Curtis: Is the Dodger offense underachieving overall?

Paul Sporer: 5th in wRC+, 3rd in R… I’d say no

Deathclaw: Is Dom Smith a top 10 1B next year? How you feel about him?

Paul Sporer: Big fan for sure. Not sure if he’s Top 10 bc I haven’t done a 1B rundown yet, but it’s not a particularly deep position so it’s certainly possible

Father figure: Keeper for next year: Dinelson Lamet or Ian Anderson?

Paul Sporer: While I’m known as not a huge Lamet guy, I’m still definitely taking him here

biggy: Is Luke Voit a small sample size all star?  He’ll probably go top 30 as a result of this year…….legit?

Paul Sporer: .280/.375/.543 as a Yankee in 839 PA. He’s a legit stud as far as I’m concerned. Couldn’t recommend him enough this year and I’ll be buying back in next year, too

Guest: Hi  Paul. Red Saux have Eovaldi, E-Rod (hopefully no covid related heartt problems and a shortened season Sale for 2021 starting corps. How can they possibly build a starting rotation and be competitive for next year?  (Separate question) What would you do as GM?

Paul Sporer: They have to start developing some pitching for sure, but they’ll also be able to buy some off the market as guys they want become available. If they get a top 2 pick, they could get Rocker or Leiter in the draft

biggy: CYA convo is Cy Young Award

Paul Sporer: I thought it was Cover Your Ass, lol. I’ve never seen Cy Young as CYA… usually just Cy or CY. At any rate, yes Burnes is in the convo. It’s gonna be a tight race and I think it will come down to this last week and a half as every start matters

Deathclaw: Will Smith’s numbers and metrics are incredible in a small sample. Chance henis evolving into a top C?

Paul Sporer: Even with the requisite small sample caveats, he’s a top C for sure. Part of that is the disastrously shallow pool, but also his performance is doing plenty to drive it, too

viceroy: Don’t know if you remember me celebrating trading Mondesi for Schwarber and Schwarber smacking 2 bombs immediately. Since the trade, Mondesi hitting 340 with 7 steals… and more HR than Schwarb 🤦

Paul Sporer: Damn, that’s tough. Mondesi has been SO back n forth this year. Every time I leave him for dead in terms of fantasy, he goes off. In a standard season, I’d just set it and forget it, but with his catastrophic lows, I’ve been open to cutting him more than once this year only to see him rebound a bit. Maddening.

tim: Is Ohtani a keeper still? 8 keepers, 12 team league, daily moves

Paul Sporer: Certainly a consideration for the top 96. It definitely depends on your other options, but I wouldn’t just dismiss him based on the lame OPS and pitching flop this year

Scott: Comfortable rolling out Brady Singer tonight?

Paul Sporer: For sure. If you can’t start him v. DET, he shouldn’t be on the roster

Guest: All things equal, do you trust Wainright tonight?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I do. He’s pitched very well and Milwaukee has been pretty lame offensively

thebearproofsuit: after his latest spectacular HR robbed, his third,  can we put a fork in the Kyle Lewis is bad at defense narrative?  i know you’re on board, …spread the word.

Paul Sporer: What some forget or just don’t know bc they don’t follow prospects closely is that Lewis would’ve been a MEGA super-heralded prospect if he had been healthy coming up. That’s the only thing that slowed him down. He’s an absolute G

JACK flaherty???: what is wrong with me and should people stay away if i was dropped?

Paul Sporer: I mean, it’s one bad start. He had a 3.08 ERA before getting decimated by MIL so I’m not sure there are fundamental issues with him. If someone cut him, I’m definitely scooping him for the PIT & MIL starts still on the board

Viceroy: JDM worth dropping? My team is second to last in runs, home runs and middle of the pack in avg home runs

Paul Sporer: You can in 10- or 12-teamers as there’s likely some v nice bats on the wire

Guest: Would you be rolling with Gallen vs Hou after this two recent blow ups?

Paul Sporer: Without a moment of hesitation

normal person: whats your obsession with otters? it seems a little over the top and weird for a 40 year old.

Paul Sporer: Only thing worse would be being so pressed by what someone else likes that you anonymously log into a chat to cry about it.

Paul Sporer: https://imgur.com/D8ASY4F

Curtis: Which player do you think has moved up the most from last year’s draft position to next years (at this point in the season)?  Who comes to mind?

Paul Sporer: Here are a few who come to mind immediately w/their Summer Main Event ADP: Dom Smith 442, Yas 314, Winker 329, K.Lewis 333, Sixto 447

Joe: Talk me off the ledge of cutting Lux in ottoneu league

Paul Sporer: Is someone you pick up really gonna make a difference in 10 days v. what Lux can be in ’21 & beyond?

pat burrell’s ghost: dear paul! thank you for always doing this, i have some questions about a 10 team roto redraft, 6×6 (avg and also obp): is it safe to consider dropping realmuto if i picked up sean murphy? the hip flexor strain has me concerned with like 11 days left in the season. a second question is: flaherty’s latest disaster caused him to get dropped, is he worth scooping up in a redraft? thank you again!

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate it, espec. since Murphy is the pickup. Even if JTR comes back, he’s unlikely to make you completely rue the decision. And I’d definitely scoop Flaherty

otters everywhere: tell the cretins we see what they say about us. we are watching, and we are listening.

Paul Sporer: Steeb, relax

Steve Nebraska: Re: milwaukee’s lame offense… Tell that to Flaherty. Hahaha

Paul Sporer: LOL, blind squirrel… I mean, let’s be clear, they could rip Waino, but he’s done enough to earn the trust

Guest: Can we take a moment to pray that Pillar has a MONSTER game in coors vs Friers today.  I could really use it…

Paul Sporer: I know a few folks who scooped him hoping for some Coors greatness

Curtis: How similar will next year’s first round fantasy draft picks be to this season’s (let’s say a 10 team league)?  Given the nature of this season, does next year have the potential to have a lot of turnover as owners panic and/or change their philosophies?

Paul Sporer: Oh I think we’ll see quite a bit turnover

Steven: I Need Ks in NL only, are you fan of Drew Smyly? Big velo bump in relief so far.

Paul Sporer: Ya I dig him. He can absolutely miss a good number of bats, espec. v SEA

Guest: Bro Nate Lowe getting some run lately and seems to be picking right up where he left off. Rays gotta get him regular PT next year no?

Paul Sporer: LOL at a Ray getting regular PT, that’s adorable 😏

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, I’m a fan and think he’ll get plenty of burn vR. I like both Lowes for the Rays (a third is on the way in Nate’s bro Josh, too)

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!