Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 10th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone! Had to move to Thursday, but here we go!

Scotty: Logan Gilbert or Brendan McKay in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I’m going with McKay, but Gilbert is definitely to be fully aware of for the future

Greg: Small sample and fewer innings than most, but what’s your read on Plesac? Can he be a top 30 SP next year?

Paul Sporer: I buy into him a good bit bc of the pitch mix changes that have fostered his strikeout surge (drop in FB, surge in SL). I also really buy into CLE’s pitching development so that adds to my interest. I don’t know if he’ll make my top 30, but he won’t be too far out of it if he doesn’t

Kyle: What’s your analysis on Tristan McKenzie? Long term keeper or sell high?

Paul Sporer: I’d be open to selling high just due to the nature of pitching and his injury history. However, like I said, , I love CLE pitchers and he’s been the best prospect we’ve seen come through their org so if you don’t get a price you’re interested in, there’s no shame in keeping him and riding it out

ScottTINSTAAPP: Are we trusting Pablo Lopez ROS after yesterday’s debacle?

Paul Sporer: It’s back to back bad starts, so I think it has to be team dependent. I don’t think you can trust him if you’re protecting ratios

Scotty: You’re still high on McKay even though he just had shoulder surgery?

Paul Sporer: OMG, I completely forgot about his shoulder surgery there for a second like a really smart person. I knew he was just moved from the COVID list and out for the year, but I forgot the real reason he’s out for the year. Yeah, I’m shifting to Gilbert. Pardon me on the brain fart

Sam: are brandon belt’s improvements this year real

Paul Sporer: They are real, but are they lasting? That’s the real question and obviously unknowable, but I feel confident saying that his surge isn’t a fluke, espec. with Oracle playing better for hitters, too

Kyle: Is Cronenworth a top 12 2B preseason next year?

Paul Sporer: I think so, I’m quite high on him: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rake-cronenworths-star-turn/

Frank: Buy or sell — Jesse Winker a top 30 OF in 2021.

Paul Sporer: Sell, but top 50

Steve: Gallen or Snell? Mixed 12 team H2H, keep 6 forever, std categories along with QS.

Paul Sporer: I think Gallen will edge him out, but they will be within a few spots of one another

Big Tuna: Charlie Morton is still ramping up and finishes with BOS, BAL, NYM. Are you starting him outside of that BAL start?

Paul Sporer: I’d start him for BOS and BAL, tbd on NYM – the MLB’s best team in wRC+

Reece N.C. Baez: You’ve mentioned on the pod that you don’t buy catchers and relievers in dynasty leagues. How do you go about rostering them, then? Just dealing from other areas where you have positional strength/volume?

Paul Sporer: Meant more that I cheap out in that I won’t buy prospect Cs and relievers du jour like Nick Anderson, etc…

Frank: I’m a contender and will be for the next few years in a dynasty league. I also have Scherzer on my roster. How would you recommend handling it? I’ve tried selling him for some young studs but no one seems to be biting. Since I’m competing, do I just ride it until he falls apart?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think you just ride it out.

Sean: Is Adam Duvall for real?

Paul Sporer: He is who he is, a solid power hitter who’s had a pair of amazing games in close succession. He has 2 30-HR seasons under his belt, so he’s a known commodity

gjl: Better Brewer in 2021: Burnes or Woodruff?

Paul Sporer: Ooooh, that’s close. I really dig both, but Burnes has the better raw and swing miss stuff so I’ll lean his way for ’21 after his strong changes this year

Rocco: If i had to drop one of the following — who do you cut first?  Manaea, Dunning, Sheffield, or Gonsolin….who gets the axe?

Paul Sporer: Probably Sheffield for his volatility

Razor Ramon: Julio Urias has been wildly inconsistent. Is he just a mediocre, streaky pitcher? Or should we still be holding for a breakout?

Paul Sporer: I think wildly inconsistent is a severe overstatement. He has a couple 4 ER outings among his 8 outings. I still think there’s a ton of talent here and I buy him as a potential stud rest of the season and for ’21

Hey mare: How are you liking Jeimer Candelario?

Paul Sporer: It makes me extremely happy. Big fan. I didn’t buy in preseason this year, he had to show me something before buying, but snapped him up off waivers in a pair of leagues the second he showed the hint of something.

Michael: Is Pineda universally underrated? His last 90 IP he has a 2.84 ERA with more than 90Ks. Why no love?

Paul Sporer: That’s kinda cherry picking 10% of his career work. He is a 4.00 ERA with a good WHIP and a K per inning. There was no hype bc he was suspended, but he’s been discussed and well regarded since returning. He has these runs somewhat regularly and then allows a ton of HRs to even it back out

Pigeon: Understanding that 2019 was very likely a career year, what is your early take on Ketel Marte looking ahead to 2021? Should I be looking to sell at a discount now in a keeper league, or is some level of rebound likely?

Paul Sporer: I kinda feel like the wrist was lingering all year but was playable. Now that they’re toast, he decided to hit the IL. That’s my speculation on it. As such, I’m willing to buy back in if the news tracks well on his health this offseason

Big Tuna: Is Pomeranz 12-team viable now that Rosenthal is in town?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. Great ratios & Ks with decent shot at sneak wins and the occasional save

Jerry Seinfeld: Sporer? This guy looks like he SPORED out of a Sequoia, am I RIGHT???

Paul Sporer: Savage.

Gio: Dobnak droppable?

Paul Sporer: Yes, gets both Chicagos coming up

Guest: Is it just the SSS or has this been an all-time season for waiver wire pickups? Candelario, Kyle Lewis, Corbin Burnes, all guys that went undrafted or might as well have.

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely SSS-related. Consider we wouldn’t even be in June yet in a normal season

Tony Gonsolin: Should I be started in a 10 team roto against Hou. Next is at Coors so may be dropped.

Paul Sporer: I’m starting him v. HOU, but I’d hold on dropping him for at COL. I wouldn’t start him there, but I’d rather reserve. He’s been so good that I’d want that final start v. OAK

Blow Jays: The trio of Robbie Ray,  Stripling, and Villar haven’t really come through for the Jays. Are any worth owning in AL only (past this week when Bo comes back)? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: It’s 15 innings and 36 PA! Plus none of the three were doing THAT well prior to the trades so they never should’ve been as saviors. I’m OK dropping the pitchers given their upcoming starts but I’d hold Villar if any SBs could help me

Max: Tim Anderson. We look at that BABIP and always think regression is just around the corner, but he keeps hitting. What’s your confidence level that there will be a high level of production in the future (if not at his current scorching pace)?

Paul Sporer: I figured his speed would keep his BABIP on the high end, but not this high! It’s a marvel that he’s been able to maintain a .412 BABIP even for 151 more PA. We should continue to look at him as a high AVG hitter and go from there

Paul Sporer: Sorry, had to take care of something really quick

Guest: With TX souring on Odor, finally, do you think Solak is their 2B optoin in 2021? And do you think his power starts to develop?

gjl: Why does FanGraphs keep telling me to buy on Solak. You can’t make me. I won’t do it.

Paul Sporer: TEX still has 2 more years of Odor, unfortunately, but I do think Solak can take over that job. And I recommend buying him, gjl, he’s so good! There’s pop in that bat. Wish we had a full six months of him to analyze

GOAT: In a keep forever league, when would you contemplate selling Trout? I’d rather sell a year too early than two years too late (like the Scherzer owner above).

Paul Sporer: Now is the time if you’re OK being early. Price will start coming down (not to pennies or anything) as soon as next year with him knocking on the door of 30 and the SBs disappearing

omar207: Is this the beginning of the end for Hader? I need an SP, what kind of return [who] should I target?

omar207: …the Hader q was a Dynasty league

Paul Sporer: I can’t really answer who you can get, that’s entirely league dependent, but I do think it’s worth considering a trade as you never want to hold an RP too long in a dynasty league, even a great one like him

sean: any cause for concern on brandon lowe?

Paul Sporer: Nah, he’s come down a bit as expected. I’d be buying like crazy in a standard season right now

HappyFunBall: Have to bring Carlos Martinez off the DL.  Which to keep, him or Rich Hill?

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer Martinez, muuuch better schedule

Dorn: Is Fernando Tatis, Jr. a good baseball player?

Paul Sporer: Too early to tell!

Marco Gonzales: What am I doing right? And can it last?

Paul Sporer: Getting ahead, not walking anybody, and running hot. I think he’s more a high-3.00s ERA guy, but I’ve been a fan since ’18 and really like to take the discount on him since his lack of Ks scare folks off. Build the right rotation around him and he’s a great piece

JD Martinez: What round will you take me in next year?

Paul Sporer: 3rd-4th

Dustin May: What can’t I strike guys out? I have elite stuff but without K/9 am I destined to just be a fringe top 40 SP?

Paul Sporer: Doesn’t have a K pitch. His 2-seamers/sinkers are sexy, but they aren’t swing and miss pitches

gjl: Why does everyone talk about Brandon Nimmo like he sucks? He’s actually……pretty good!

Paul Sporer: Probably bc most leagues are still AVG so his amazing OBPs don’t DIRECTLY help fantasy managers outside of runs scored, which is probably the most overlooked fantasy stat. But ya, he’s a damn solid player

Dane’s mom: Is Dunning a top 50 SP for 21? Could he would he be if he finishes the year as he’s started?

Paul Sporer: I can’t go that high, but I spoke well of him on today’s pod: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-850-202…

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I have get going. I appreciate y’all coming out and filling up the queue despite being a day late and I know y’all are still waiting on those SPs ranks. I had to go to my mom’s unexpectedly this week and it cost me two days of work. Sorry to make excuses, but that’s just where I’m at. I am still working on them, but I’m such a damn tinkerer. Hell, I had Pablo lookin nice last week before 2 straight duds. At any rate, hold tight with me, the SPs will be ranked!

Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!