This year, I went bolder. I went more precise. I tied success to specific numbers.
I’m guessing that will tank my completion percentage, which has hovered around 33-40%. Let’s check the tape. I’m nervous.
Well, it is that time when we look back to see how bad were our 2015 BOLD preseason predictions. Let me see if I can improve on last year’s three for 10 results.
Note: I will use the rating from ESPN and Yahoo! to determine the player’s ranking.
1. Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw will not be the #1 ranked fantasy player for 2015.
Well, I started out fine. Kershaw came close by being the 3rd overall pitcher with Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke ahead of him. Kershaw was his normal self, but Greinke and Arrieta had career seasons. Trout was a little further down the hitter rankings at #7. His biggest issue was an injured wrist which limited his production.
1 for 1
2. Pedro Alvarez will lead the National League in home runs.
Nope. He ended up tied for tenth in the NL with 27 home runs. The 27 was more than most people expected, but not #1. I should have stated HR/FB% in which he was #1 in the NL (and AL) with a min 400 PA. Alvarez needs to find his way to the American league where he can bat every day.
1 for 2
This was my first foray into the Bold Predictions (emphasis on bold) so let’s see how I did:
1.) Nathan Eovaldi breaks out in New York.
Eovaldi lowered his ERA and had a pretty 14-3 record but a 4.20 ERA and only 121 strikeouts in 154 innings pitched does not constitute as a break out. In spite of increased average fastball velocity (96.7 mph compared to 95.7 mph in 2014) Eovaldi’s ability to miss bats barely improved. His SwStr% rose a few fractions of a point and his K% jumped a point and a half to 18% but both marks are below the league average. I still hold out hope that Eovaldi can break out in the near future but it wasn’t in 2015.
0 for 1
Last year, I hit .300 on my Bold Predictions, which is about what I aim for. That feels like the boldness sweet spot. This year, not so much. It saddens me to report that I was overly bold this year, getting just one Bold Prediction right. However, one other was incredibly close, so I’ll say that I hit .150 this season. Still, I can and will do better next year.
I have failed you, dear readers.
1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.
Well, he was a top-100 outfielder, slotting in at No. 99 on the season. Soler battled his fair share of injuries this year, but even when he was healthy enough to play, he hit just .262/.324/.399, with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances. For the year, he registered a 0.0 WAR. Here’s hoping he turns it around next season.
The 2016 regular season is officially in the books and that means that for the next couple of months, it’s review time! I published a boatload of predictions and player lists in the preseason and I plan to recap every single one of them. First, I’ll start with perhaps the most enjoyable one, the bold predictions. Refresh your memory with the full explanations behind my predictions. Typically, I consider getting just three of the 10 correct to be a job well done. Let’s see how I did.
After crediting myself with 4, 5 and 5 correct bold predictions over the last three years, this years predictions are proving a bit too bold. We’re only half way through the year, and I can pretty easily write off almost all of my bold predictions. It’s not a good place to be.
In the spirit of the All-Star Break, I figured this was as good a time as any to check in on my “10 Bold-ish Predictions, The 2015 Edition.” Like some of my colleagues have done, I’ll simply state the prediction and discuss the player/s progress — or lack there of — towards said bold prediction.
1. Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn will be top 75 starters
Read the rest of this entry »
With the All-Star break upon us, this is as good a time as any to take a midseason look back at my 2015 bold predictions. My goal with these is to bat somewhere around .300, which is exactly what I did last year.
Get too many right, and the predictions probably weren’t bold enough for the nature of these columns. Swing and miss on all ten? Probably need to dial back the predictive aggressiveness next time. With that in mind, let’s see how I’ve done so far this year…
1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.
Not a chance. Soler got off to a slow start, hitting just four homers before landing on the disabled list with an ankle injury in early June. The 23-year-old just returned last week, after more than a month on the DL. At this point, there’s no hot streak in the world that would make this prediction a reality.
I had two goals going into my initial Bold Predictions: To go really bold, and to not repeat what the other RotoGraphers had done. I think I accomplished both and now that we’re halfway through season the season, I’ll see how the predictions look and revise the ones where I missed big.
One time, I made some bold predictions about the 2015 season. They were, by and large, pretty terrible, as most bold predictions usually go. However, not all of them were complete losses, and it seems appropriate anyway to review them at the season’s midway point. In addition to brief analyses for each player where applicable, I also provided completely arbitrary percentages of probabilities that my remaining predictions will hit.
1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.
Dude swings so hard, he fractures his wrist. It’s incredible, and aside from getting hit in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball last year, Stanton has suffered non-freak injuries in all of his professional seasons that have caused him to miss significant time — hence, the basis of this prediction. He ranks third of all outfielders, according to the ESPN Player Rater, and six weeks of missed time gives me a solid chance here. A wrist injury is by no means a death knell for a hitter’s power, but there’s reason to believe, aside from reasons related to regression, he doesn’t match his production through the season’s first three months — as in he hits closer to 10 or 12 home runs rest-of-season rather than 15 to 20.
Probability: Read the rest of this entry »
