The 2016 regular season is officially in the books and that means that for the next couple of months, it’s review time! I published a boatload of predictions and player lists in the preseason and I plan to recap every single one of them. First, I’ll start with perhaps the most enjoyable one, the bold predictions. Refresh your memory with the full explanations behind my predictions. Typically, I consider getting just three of the 10 correct to be a job well done. Let’s see how I did.

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After crediting myself with 4, 5 and 5 correct bold predictions over the last three years, this years predictions are proving a bit too bold. We’re only half way through the year, and I can pretty easily write off almost all of my bold predictions. It’s not a good place to be.

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In the spirit of the All-Star Break, I figured this was as good a time as any to check in on my “10 Bold-ish Predictions, The 2015 Edition.” Like some of my colleagues have done, I’ll simply state the prediction and discuss the player/s progress — or lack there of — towards said bold prediction.

1. Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn will be top 75 starters
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With the All-Star break upon us, this is as good a time as any to take a midseason look back at my 2015 bold predictions. My goal with these is to bat somewhere around .300, which is exactly what I did last year.

Get too many right, and the predictions probably weren’t bold enough for the nature of these columns. Swing and miss on all ten? Probably need to dial back the predictive aggressiveness next time. With that in mind, let’s see how I’ve done so far this year…

1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.

Not a chance. Soler got off to a slow start, hitting just four homers before landing on the disabled list with an ankle injury in early June. The 23-year-old just returned last week, after more than a month on the DL. At this point, there’s no hot streak in the world that would make this prediction a reality.

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I had two goals going into my initial Bold Predictions: To go really bold, and to not repeat what the other RotoGraphers had done. I think I accomplished both and now that we’re halfway through season the season, I’ll see how the predictions look and revise the ones where I missed big.

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One time, I made some bold predictions about the 2015 season. They were, by and large, pretty terrible, as most bold predictions usually go. However, not all of them were complete losses, and it seems appropriate anyway to review them at the season’s midway point. In addition to brief analyses for each player where applicable, I also provided completely arbitrary percentages of probabilities that my remaining predictions will hit.

1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.

Dude swings so hard, he fractures his wrist. It’s incredible, and aside from getting hit in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball last year, Stanton has suffered non-freak injuries in all of his professional seasons that have caused him to miss significant time — hence, the basis of this prediction. He ranks third of all outfielders, according to the ESPN Player Rater, and six weeks of missed time gives me a solid chance here. A wrist injury is by no means a death knell for a hitter’s power, but there’s reason to believe, aside from reasons related to regression, he doesn’t match his production through the season’s first three months — as in he hits closer to 10 or 12 home runs rest-of-season rather than 15 to 20.

Probability: Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this year, I presented some bold predictions to you, the readers, and since we are now halfway through the season, it’s time to revisit them to see how things are progressing.

1a. Clayton Kershaw will be the No. 1 fantasy player…
It’s going to take a shit-hot second half to propel Kershaw to the top of the board. His ERA needs to sit closer to 2.00 than 3.00, which it is currently above. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve never done a mid-season check in on my bold predictions, but I’ve also never gotten a single one right, so there’s that. Without further self-deprecation, let’s take a look at where I stand on my preseason predictions.

1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
Originally I had this pegged specifically for 120 runs, but the comment section told me Donaldson would be hitting fifth most of the season, despite my original thoughts. Since I’m a pretty easy going guy, I decided to make this a flexible post and included the 130 RBI possibility. The commenters were correct for the first week, but then after a bit of moving around, Donaldson has settled in at the two hole. At this point the Blue Jays have played 77 games and Donaldson has scored 67 runs and tallied 48 RBIs. Good thing I made this an “or” rather than an “and” post, as I’m about 50 percent confident Donaldson will actually score 120 runs. Given that neither Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista are showing any sign of slowing down at ages 32 and 34 respectively, I’m optimistic I can get this one correct. Read the rest of this entry »

Life isn’t all about rainbows and butterflies. With that in mind, my bold predictions include some positive outlooks for a pair of post-hype sleepers, some young hurlers, a sophomore everyone is in love with and a veteran second baseman. However, they also feature some less than rosy prognostications for a speedy second baseman, a late-blooming multi-position eligible Pirate and a pitcher trading homer-friendly Great American Ballpark for the homer-suppressing Marlins Park. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s my favorite time of the year here at RotoGraphs, the season of bold predictions. (My least favorite time, naturally, is late September, when I have to atone for these forecasts.) As usual, the trick here is to balance imagination against reality, the impossible versus the attainable, the speculative against the demonstrable. It’s a tough task that, for me, often results in happy predictions, but then again, it’s March — ’tis the season to indulge in some fantasy baseball fantasies, right?
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