Mike Podhorzer’s 2015 Bold Pitcher League Leaders – A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed my 2015 Bold Hitter League Leaders. And they were laughably bad. I haven’t actually looked at my pitcher picks as I type this and I cannot for the life of me remember them. So, let’s hope they turned out better. Here are my original explanations.

American League

ERACarlos Carrasco

Carrasco’s strikeout rate jumped even higher and he remained stingy issuing the free pass. But poor HR/FB rate luck resulted in an ERA nearly a full run higher than his SIERA. And hey, he finished second among qualified AL starters in SIERA! He may be undervalued next year, though those 216 strikeouts will ensure he isn’t overlooked.

0 for 1

WHIPMichael Pineda

Even with a ridiculous .332 BABIP, Pineda still managed a perfectly respectable 1.23 WHIP. Of course, that was nowhere near the league lead. Pineda suffered poor fortune on all three luck metrics and given health concerns that may never go away, will almost assuredly be undervalued next season.

0 for 2

StrikeoutsDrew Hutchison

A bold strikeout league leader is very difficult because the pitcher has to not only punch out a high rate of the batters he faces, but also pitch lots of innings. Unfortunately, Hutchison did neither of those two and finished with just 129 strikeouts. I double dipped with him as a bold prediction as well and he made me look silly. Somehow though, he wasn’t on any of my fantasy teams. I’m still willing to speculate next year.

0 for 3

WinsR.A. Dickey

The logic was there — over 200 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball on a top offensive squad. The Jays were easily the top scoring offense in baseball, averaging 5.5 runs per game. But naturally, Dickey got the short end of the stick, as his run support was a relatively meager 4.45 runs per game. Yet his teammate Mark Buehrle enjoyed 5.97 runs of support. I had the right idea, but it didn’t work out.

0 for 4

SavesBrett Cecil

Choosing a bold saves leader is kind of stupid. We know that essentially any closer with the job at the beginning of the season could theoretically lead the league in saves and naming any of those closers isn’t bold. And yet I somehow managed to land on a closer who saved five games all season, losing his job in quick fashion. But he finished the season with a 2.48 ERA, which goes to show you how ridiculously quick managers’ hooks are when it comes to the closer role. Imagine if a starting pitcher was demoted to the bullpen or the minors after one bad start!

0 for 5

National League

ERAGerrit Cole

My best pick yet! Cole finished fifth in the NL in ERA en route to a true breakout season. Of course, his peripherals were identical to 2014, and yet his ERA dropped by a full run. So as you might guess, it was really just better fortune. In this case, it took the form of a decline in HR/FB rate to an unsustainably low mark. That said, he should remain a top NL pitcher.

0 for 6

WHIPMike Fiers

The thought process here was a fly ball pitcher with strong control who should suppress BABIP and strikes out a high rate of batters to keep them off base. Unfortunately, his walk rate jumped and strikeout rate declined, so his 1.25 WHIP was a bit higher than I was projecting.

0 for 7

StrikeoutsJacob deGrom

This was my way of saying that I thought deGrom was for real. But actually leading the league in strikeouts was going to be a monumental task. Pitching just 191 innings made it impossible, even though he struck out 27% of the batters he faced. Who could have imagined that deGrom would actually improve his already fantastic skills from his surprise breakout in 2014?

0 for 8

WinsBrandon McCarthy

Well hey, I admitted that this may have been the most ridiculous bold league leader. And I was right about that! McCarthy made just four starts, dealt with a severe case of gopheritis and then went under the knife to fix his elbow. Who knows what he’ll be when he returns.

0 for 9

SavesHector Rondon

Remember my comments above about Cecil. Rondon is yet another example. How he ever lost his job to begin with boggles my mind. With 30 saves, even if he held the job all year, he had no chance to lead the league in the category. But the choice here was a “yes, I think he’s for real and could be a top tier closer for a non-top tier price” declaration. With a 1.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, I think he did deliver on that.

0 for 10

Overall, this was certainly better than the hitting predictions, which I figured. There’s much more randomness to the 5×5 pitcher stats that it makes it easier to come close or even get one correct.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Avi
8 years ago

To be fair, they weren’t that bad. Except it’s very hard to project breakout closers. Familia might have been the best “out of left field” performer but he only got the job after Jenrry Mejia decided to get himself suspended.