Reviewing 2015 Bold Predictions – Jeff Zimmerman

Well, it is that time when we look back to see how bad were our 2015 BOLD preseason predictions. Let me see if I can improve on last year’s three for 10 results.

Note: I will use the rating from ESPN and Yahoo! to determine the player’s ranking.

1. Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw will not be the #1 ranked fantasy player for 2015.
Well, I started out fine. Kershaw came close by being the 3rd overall pitcher with Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke ahead of him. Kershaw was his normal self, but Greinke and Arrieta had career seasons. Trout was a little further down the hitter rankings at #7. His biggest issue was an injured wrist which limited his production.

1 for 1

2. Pedro Alvarez will lead the National League in home runs.
Nope. He ended up tied for tenth in the NL with 27 home runs. The 27 was more than most people expected, but not #1. I should have stated HR/FB% in which he was #1 in the NL (and AL) with a min 400 PA. Alvarez needs to find his way to the American league where he can bat every day.

1 for 2

3. Martin Prado will be more productive than Kris Bryant.
Yea, I missed on this one badly. Prado was horrible, Bryant was great. Also, I didn’t expect Bryant to have as much playing time as he ended up with.

1 for 3

4. The Red Sox outfield mess will never resolve itself and no Red Sox outfielder will be among the top 30 outfielders.
I was close, but Mookie Betts was able to lock down a full-time role and came in as the #12 outfielder. The next closest was Hanley Ramirez at #69.

1 for 4

5. Bruce Rondon will be the Tigers closer by the All-Star game.
Nope, but sort of close. He did become the Tigers closer in early August but then proceeded to pitch his way out of the job and got set home.

1 for 5

6. Alex Rios will be a top 20 outfielder.
Oh, that was a bad chose. I should have gone with a Kendry Morales rebound instead.

1 for 6

7. Nick Markakis will out produce Yasmany Tomas.

I got another one right.
Markakis #55
Tomas #84
Here is another comparison of their seasons. I still don’t have much faith in Tomas.

2 for 7

8. Stephen Drew will be the highest valued Yankee infielder.
Nope.
Alex Rodriquez #60
Mark Teixeira #82
Didi Gregorius #158
Chase Headley #160
Greg Bird #263
Stephen Drew #298
I had the right idea that the Yankees infield would not be great, but had way too much faith in Drew.

2 for 8

9. Jordan Zimmermann and Ryan Zimmerman will be the top pitcher and hitter on the Nationals.
Missed because Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper decided to become top 10 players.

2 for 9

10. Finally, David Wiers will break his streak of horrible Bold Predictions and get three, count that three, right this year.
According to David, he will get three, maybe even four right this year. Crazy.

3 for 10

I am on par with my previous predictions and showing to real improvement for falling off. Well, there is always next year.

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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PR
Guest
PR

note to self: the negative predictions are always more likely

McNulty
Guest
McNulty

Stating that the best player will not be the best player is not a bold prediction. It is just a statement of probability.

Tiger Woods
Guest
Tiger Woods

Really? That’s news to me.