Bold Predictions Revisited: Quest for an 0-fer

When I wrote my 10 Bold Predictions in March, I knew they were bold. And when I reviewed them in July, I knew they were not going well.

But this poorly? Yikes.

1. Brandon Moss hits a career high 35 HR.
At least I am not the only one who whiffed badly on this. Everything was lined up for a big year for Moss, and the power was actually mostly there – right up until he was traded to a team that didn’t need him and played sparingly the rest of the way. He ended up at 19. 19 is less than 35.

0 for 1

2. Brandon Belt will be a top 12 1B.
According to my CBS league, he was 16th. One of the 15 better is Buster Posey; another is Todd Frazier; a third is Chris Davis. None of those guys were being used at 1B due to other eligibility. So really he was…13th. And he got hurt and lost ~20% of his season. He also earned OF eligibility in most leagues. There is a world in which I could say, “Brandon Belt was top 12 among players who were used at 1B in fantasy leagues assuming a full season of health.” But this is not that world. On the plus side, if you bought on Belt based on this advice, you should have ended up quite happy, as he was a very valuable OF and a solid 1B when healthy.

0 for 2

3. Brandon Phillips is being drafted WAY too high.
I basically said he would not be a starting quality MI. Uh. Well. 12 HR, 23 SB, and easily a top 10 2B, let alone MI.

0 for 3

4. Brandon McCarthy will out-perform his projections.
As I said in July, technically his K/9 and xFIP far surpassed projections. But not sure that counts in his 23 innings. Also, despite only throwing those 23 innings, he gave up at least one HR to every player in the NL.*

*Note: I did not look this up to confirm, but it feels accurate.

0 for 4

5. Brandon Maurer will earn double digit saves and be a keeper closer for 2016.
Maurer was a solid middle reliever and would have probably been just fine as a closer, but after I made this projection, the Padres added Craig Kimbrel and that was that.

0 for 5

6. Dalton Pompey isn’t a good hitter, but is a fantasy stud.
Do I get half credit for the “not a good hitter” part? I still believe in Pompey as a a target for speed in 2016. But this year was a failure on a grand scale.

0 for 6

7. James Paxton will be a top 30 SP.
Paxton was not only too hurt to be a top 30 SP, he was pretty mediocre when he did get on the mound. 7.5 K/9, 4.31 FIP. Nothing to see here.

0 for 7

8. Drew Pomeranz will be the most valuable A’s SP.
As per my mid-season Bold Prediction report card:

Dear Sonny Gray,
I am sorry I doubted you.
Sincerely,
Chad

0 for 8

9. Gregory Polanco goes 15/30.
He was at 3/17 on July 20 when I did my mid-season recap. Over the next 2.5 months, he went 6/10, which is actually roughly a 15/30 pace (15/25 actually). But it also adds up to a 9/27 season.

0 for 9

10. A.J. Pollock disappoints, then becomes a sneaky mid-season acquisition/pick-up.
This was an odd one. I totally bought the hype on Pollock, but then felt it went overboard. I figured he would be a solid top 50-75 player, but owners would panic after non-elite (but still solid) early season. Well, he posted a .320/.373/.400 April and a .309/.361/.509 May. He only had 1 HR and 4 SB in April, before popping 4 more HR and 8 more SB in May. So – what do you think? You can argue that he disappointed in April and that anyone who jumped on him real fast might have been able to get him cheap, right? The problem is, that line was not bad enough to make anyone panic. Had May looked like April…maybe. But, alas, no one was trading him or picking him up mid-season – and if they were, there was nothing sneaky about it.

0 for 10

Hey, if you are going to fail, fail big.

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Chad Young is a product manager at Amazon by day and a baseball writer (RotoGraphs, Let's Go Tribe), sports fan and digital enthusiast at all times. Follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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Note to self – do the opposite of all the bold predictions in 2016