Archive for 2021

The 2021 ATC Projections have arrived at FanGraphs!

The Average Total Cost projection system (ATC) gets its name from the fact that it “averages” many other projection systems together. ATC also happens to be my initials.

ATC is a “smart” projection aggregation model. While most other aggregation systems typically apply equal weight to all underlying data sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. The method is similar to what Nate Silver does with his political forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com. Read more about how ATC works in last year’s introductory ATC article.

ATC’s advanced methods have paid off. Last year, FantasyPros ranked ATC as the most accurate baseball projections, even more accurate than their own. Annually, I conduct my own projections review using a game theory method, which has consistently shown that ATC has outperformed other projections. You can read the results of last year’s study here.

Starting this year, ATC will include three new volatility metrics to be described later in this article. Aside from introducing the concepts behind these new metrics, we will also discuss how a fantasy manager might use them in practice.

First, let’s quickly remind everyone on where to find the ATC projections at FanGraphs.

Viewing ATC

There are currently three ways to view and utilize the ATC projections on the site.

• Full Projections
• Individual Player Pages
• Auction Calculator

Read the rest of this entry »

The keystone is an interesting position in 2021. It definitely has some depth that you really start to see once you get in the trenches and start drafting. There are also a ton of bargain versions of players where they are slightly worse and thus projections are a bit lower, but their talent profiles are close enough that you have a real shot to spike the star-level season from the cheaper version. This isn’t unique to 2B and I’ll likely point it out in a few comments in the upcoming SS and 3B rankings, but it was almost unavoidable here as I saw it popping it up a lot.

• Justin’s list

I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your 2B plan? do you want an extra 2B for MI or do you prefer SS? who is your sleeper at the position?

Here’s my list.

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It’s been just over four months since my last SP update so this was overdue. I’ll have an article and a podcast discussing these in more detail. For this piece, I’ll just have the rankings and then respond to your comments. Blue bar starts a new tier. Let me know what you think!

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Jeff wrote a great piece earlier today on bad hitters who go early in drafts. These are often speedsters who can be huge pieces to a fantasy lineup or find themselves out of a job six weeks into the season. I figured I would do a quick follow up on the other ends of the spectrum and identify 10 players going later (150+ ADP) with OPS totals at .800 or better.

Only one of these guys will do anything for your SB count, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be drafted with Jeff’s speedsters to offset their OPS struggles.

Read the rest of this entry »

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »

Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. We will investigate some of them today and if you find this exercise worthwhile, we can make it a series!

• Part 1
• Part 2

Miguel Sanó | MIN – 1B – 99 wRC+

Sano wasn’t exactly a complete dud for his teams in 2020, essentially amounting a league average bat, but the expectations were a good bit higher as he was coming off a 137 wRC+ in 2019 and 121 career mark through 2019 (2051). His 13 HRs put him among the top 30 in baseball and was tied for the 8th highest total. They saved his season in the wake of a .204 AVG and 44% K rate. The AVG was only his second worst (.199 in 2018), but the strikeout (44%) and walk (9%) rates were career worsts.

His raw power still delivered a rosy StatCast profile, sitting in the 99-100th percentile in Barrel, HardHit%, and Exit Velocity. We have seen runs like this before, the difference now is that it’s a “season”. This feels more like the ebbs and flows of this profile. His ADP of 192 since the New Year is more than fair. It both leaves plenty of room for upside and affords you enough rounds before you have to pick him to insulate yourself from his batting average issues should you want to take on the power infusion. The downside and health issues are covered within this draft price. Buy.

Josh Bell | WAS – 1B – 77 wRC+

On the heels of an excellent 2019 breakout, expectations were high for Bell going into 2020. He didn’t just regress back to 2018, he fell apart with a .669 OPS, 27% K rate, and 10% BB rate in 223 PA – all of which stand as single season worsts for Bell, but there is no way I’m weighing anyone’s 2020 as a truly full season. Even in his 2019 breakout he had a stretch that wasn’t too far off his entire 2020. From July 6th to August 27th, he posted a .688 OPS in 170 PA, though his 21% K and 14% BB rates were much more in line with his career marks (19% and 11%, respectively).

Bell has moved up 20 picks since his trade to Washington, currently sitting at pick 163. That’s still ahead of Sano, Rhys Hoskins (173), Christian Walker (197), and Jared Walsh (199) – all of whom I prefer over Bell. As such, I’m just passing on him here. I don’t put a return to 2019 levels out of the realm of possibilities, but it’s a low probability play with some combination of 2018-19 looking more likely which would yield a .260s AVG with a mid-20s HR count, and a strong chance to be north of 80 in both R and RBI. That is a pretty solid projection, but I just prefer the potential power output from the other four, especially with them all being cheaper.

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What do you think? Are you buying back in on these two? What is your general plan at 1B?

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Read the rest of this entry »

1/15/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host/Producer

2021 STEAMER GEMS

• Franmil Reyes (2:43)
• Jesse Winker (7:22)
• Brandon Nimmo (13:36)
• Alejandro Kirk (18:35)

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The biggest trend in pitching right now is moving away from the fastball. With another 2-point drop, fastballs account for just half the pitches thrown, down from 64% back in 2002 when we started keeping the data. It slowly trickled down to 58% by 2011 and held there for five years before the current downturn that has seen at least a 1-point drop every year since 2016.

We are going to look at the pitchers with the biggest drops in usage and see what’s going on and how well it served them. Looking at 131 pitchers from 2020, just one pitcher added 10 points to his usage (Nick Margevicius 64%) while a whopping 24 shaved 10 points off from their previous season (some missed 2019 so I compared to their 2018). Six came from the Pirates (Joe Musgrove, Chad Kuhl, Derek Holland, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault, and Chris Stratton) as the departure of pitching coach Ray Searage seemed to foster a change away from heaters.

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