Archive for 2021

1/5/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

2021 OUTFIELD, PT. 3

• Prospect OFs: Dylan Carlson 139, Ryan Mountcastle 142, Daulton Varsho 155
• Better Bay Area Buy: Mike Yastrzemski 141, Ramon Laureano 142
• Power Studs: Jorge Soler 143, Joey Gallo 167
• These 3 Are Unrelated: Anthony Santander 155, Michael Brantley 159, Ian Happ 160
• Speedsters: Victor Robles 160, Victor Reyes 187, Leody Taveras 19

Read the rest of this entry »

Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. This will be a running series this winter, check it out the other installments below.

• Part 1

Joey Gallo | TEX – OF – 77 wRC+

Gallo has been a fantasy darling for a while now spurred by back-to-back 40 HR seasons in 2017-18. The catch was a combined .208 AVG in those seasons so you had to plan around that deficiency if you wanted the power. Then in 2019 his BABIP soared to a career best .368, fueling a .253 AVG in the process, though it was just 70 games as injuries limited him. What I think was lost on many was that a .500 BABIP against lefties really drove the gains for Gallo.

In other words, it was fraudulent.

Read the rest of this entry »

Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. We will investigate some of them today and if you find this exercise worthwhile, we can make it a series!

Victor Robles | WAS – OF – 65 wRC+

Robles had the standard “better in fantasy” season in 2019 as his 17 HR and 28 SB overshadowed his uninspired .255/.326/.419 line. His proponents (of which I am one) acknowledged the poor batted ball profile but felt that it was premature to lock the 23-year old into his 2019 levels. Oh, he wasn’t locked in… turns out he could get worse!

Read the rest of this entry »

With an abbreviated season in 2020, many leagues will have different benchmarks for positional eligibility in 2021. For instance, I am already in four different leagues that will use different games played benchmarks for position eligibility in 2021. Read the rest of this entry »

I remember entering 2020 drafts thinking the UT-only pool was interesting given some star power headlining it and some sneaky later round guys who could earn eligibility elsewhere but still had to be drafted in the UT spot. It’s always been a soft market given that a lot of fantasy managers are afraid to fill the UT spot too early. OK, maybe “afraid” is overstating it, but they are certainly reluctant to do so just in case a late round gem at a position they already have filled comes available.

It turns out that 2020 had nothing on this 2021 UT-only market. It’s booming! The NFBC is using 7 games in 2020 for eligibility so keep that in mind as we look at this pool. First, a quick look back at the 2020 UT-only factors:

• Nelson Cruz – 66
• Yordan Alvarez – 128 (after getting COVID & knee issues arose)
• Shohei Ohtani – 144
• Khris Davis – 184
• Miguel Andújar – 273
• Nick Solak – 284

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I wrote up a team of guys who could be top 75 players next year. It is a different way to write about breakouts and I want to run it back today with some deeper breakouts. These guys have a real shot at being top 150 players in 2021 which for reference is where guys like Jorge Soler and Yasmani Grandal are being drafted meaning these would be high impact pieces of your team if they panned out.

Max Stassi, C 336 ADP

His awesome 2020 was undercut by only playing 31 games so you may not have noticed that he hit 7 HR and 20 RBI with a .278/.352/.533 line in 105 PA. With Jason Castro gone, the job is clear for Stassi to take on full time and sit just once a week for rest. Stassi has a strong glove reputation and the bat might be catching up.

Read the rest of this entry »

11/19/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Robinson Canó’s awful choices (6:33)
• Cody Bellinger shoulder surgery (13:39)

Read the rest of this entry »

Introduction

On June 23, Commissioner of Baseball Robert D. Manfred, Jr. announced that Major League Baseball would begin its 2020 regular season on July 23^rd. It submitted a 60-game regular season schedule for review by the MLB Players Association. The proposed schedule featured divisional play, with the remaining games being played against their opposite league’s corresponding geographical division.

That 60-game proposal came to fruition. It was an unusual season to say the least. The St. Louis Cardinals did not play a game from July 30^th through August 14^th. Doubleheader games were all seven innings each, and extra innings started with a runner on 2^nd base. The designated hitter was in effect for the National League, and so on, and so forth. In the end, the season came and went, and the Los Angeles Dodgers were crowned as champions of the Fall Classic.

Now we are squarely in the midst of the baseball offseason. Most fantasy baseball players are on holiday from their annual game, eagerly awaiting one of the most important ingredients to their annual draft preparation …

Projections.

For many (including myself), player projections are the backbone that form the strategies and planning for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. Understanding how player statistics are forecasted for the coming season is the essential part of fantasy preparation.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a recent episode of the podcast, I spoke with Alex Fast about some potential breakout starting pitchers at different levels and I really enjoyed that so I want to do the same for hitting. Today, we are going to identify some players who be the next Top 75 players. Just to give you an idea of that range, hitters like Pete Alonso and Adam Duvall were just inside in the Top 75 while Eric Hosmer and Kevin Pillar were juuust outside. So these are solid fantasy contributors for sure.

Sean Murphy, C | 205 ADP, 280 Player Rater

Murphy has been strong in two small MLB samples, totaling exactly 200 PA of a 132 wRC+ with 11 HR. The 27% K rate is born of no plan at the dish or a stark inability to make contact meaning there could be some improvement there, pushing his .237 AVG northward. The power will drive this profile and be a huge factor in whether or not he can reach this level while he also needs to be much closer to his MiLB .267 AVG, too.

Read the rest of this entry »

11/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

2021 2B PREVIEW

On the Rise

• Jake Cronenworth (5:00)
• Dylan Moore (13:17)
• Tommy Edman (24:12)
• Nick Madrigal (31:00)
• Nick Solak (37:50)
• Gavin Lux (42:00)
• Andrés Giménez (47:37)
• Garrett Hampson (52:12)
• Ty France (55:55)

Read the rest of this entry »