Third Base ADP Market Report: 1/21/2021
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
Alex Bregman (-6.99)- Like many of the Astros, Bregman is coming off of one of his worst seasons in the Majors. There wasn’t a huge change in skills which makes some wonder how much the sign stealing may have helped him in recent years. I don’t expect him to be as bad as he was in 2020, but I also don’t expect a bounceback to 2019 or even 2018 numbers which still puts me out on him at his current price.
Top 200 Players Rising
Tommy Edman (+18.49)- See the last piece in this series on second basemen.
Andres Ginmenez (+41.26)- See the last piece in this series on second basemen.
Top 200 Players Falling
None
Top 300 Players Rising
Austin Riley (+22.41)- There appears to be a lot of smoke around who the Braves may sign in free agency, but there hasn’t been any real chatter about them signing a third baseman. So, it appears they may be ready to roll with Riley full time. He is still just 23, so I am not eliminating the idea that he can improve his profile, but Riley appears to be what he is at this point, a cheap power source. He is a good guy to draft later if you like punting batting average or have a safer team average due to earlier draft picks.
Kyle Seager (+17.31)- Seager is not a league winner type player, but he is about as consistent as they come in terms of a safe floor. Prior to the shortened 2020 season, he hit at least 20 home runs in every season since his 2012. He also has been extremely durable throughout his career. Outside of 2019 when he only played 106 games, he has never missed any real time in his career and played all 60 games in 2020. You can pretty much pencil in 20-25 homers with a .240 average and not worry you won’t get at least that.
Eduardo Escobar (+37.89)- Escobar climb is a bit of a correction after his early ADP was a bit too harsh after his disappointing 2020. There were warning signs coming into last year, but his stellar 2019 and his multi positional eligibility masked the poor StatCast numbers. That being said, he got unlucky in the BABIP department and his contact numbers were above average.
Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (+20.99)- IKF has jumped up over 80 picks from the beginning of draft season. He was a trendy sleeper heading into 2020 because of his catcher eligibility and a full time role in the infield. Now he has lost that catcher eligibility, but has dual-eligibility at SS and 3B. The Rangers have already committed to him being an everyday player, so he should rack up plenty of plate appearances. He offers pretty much no power, but enough speed and average to make himself interesting in deeper formats as a player that can cover all over the infield for teams.
Top 300 Players Falling
Brian Anderson (-12.62)- Anderson has been a favorite of a lot of people in the industry for a few years now and I have never understood why. He is about as boring as you can be. The 11 homers in 2020 is great, but he did it on an inflated HR/FB% and with a meager 87.4 mph exit velocity. On top of that, he lost his outfield eligibility. If you like lower 20s home run and a .250-.260 average then he is your guy, but that’s not my cup of tea.
| 12/1/2020-1/21/2021 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 | 11/1/2020-11/30/2020 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.19 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 3B | 6.25 | 8 | -2.19 |
| 23.83 | Manny Machado | SD | 3B | 20.75 | 20.19 | -3.64 |
| 33.76 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 28.75 | 26.59 | -7.17 |
| 38.83 | Nolan Arenado | COL | 3B | 36.75 | 34.37 | -4.46 |
| 43.29 | Alex Bregman | HOU | 3B | 32.75 | 36.3 | -6.99 |
| 44.38 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 3B | 50 | 45.3 | 0.92 |
| 44.71 | Anthony Rendon | LAA | 3B | 40.75 | 42.67 | -2.04 |
| 56.14 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 2B, 3B, OF | 57 | 55.41 | -0.73 |
| 84.38 | Yoan Moncada | CWS | 3B | 93 | 87.48 | 3.1 |
| 89.52 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN | 3B | 91 | 85.22 | -4.3 |
| 95.19 | Jeff McNeil | NYM | 2B, 3B, OF | 109.25 | 97.7 | 2.51 |
| 99.69 | Max Muncy | LAD | 1B, 2B, 3B | 104 | 97.52 | -2.17 |
| 101.81 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 1B, 3B | 106.5 | 106.67 | 4.86 |
| 119.36 | Matt Chapman | OAK | 3B | 113 | 115.85 | -3.51 |
| 126.55 | Tommy Edman | STL | 2B, 3B, SS, OF | 133.75 | 145.04 | 18.49 |
| 131.69 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | 158.5 | 139.37 | 7.68 |
| 142.62 | Kris Bryant | CHC | 3B | 123.5 | 134.7 | -7.92 |
| 158 | Gio Urshela | NYY | 3B | 143.25 | 154.81 | -3.19 |
| 173.52 | Andres Gimenez | NYM | 2B, 3B, SS | 223.75 | 214.78 | 41.26 |
| 198.07 | Josh Donaldson | MIN | 3B | 191.5 | 190.89 | -7.18 |
| 198.83 | Jean Segura | PHI | 2B, 3B | 217.25 | 198.15 | -0.68 |
| 214.48 | Justin Turner | LAD | 3B | 222.75 | 222.67 | 8.19 |
| 216.21 | Brian Anderson | MIA | 3B | 195.75 | 203.59 | -12.62 |
| 217.33 | Austin Riley | ATL | 3B | 267 | 239.74 | 22.41 |
| 218.14 | David Fletcher | LAA | 2B, 3B, SS | 221.25 | 219.74 | 1.6 |
| 218.88 | J.D. Davis | NYM | 3B, OF | 207.25 | 210.48 | -8.4 |
| 239.93 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 1B, 3B | 226.5 | 242.48 | 2.55 |
| 240.4 | Willi Castro | DET | 3B, SS | 239 | 245.33 | 4.93 |
| 250.05 | Kyle Seager | SEA | 3B | 263 | 267.44 | 17.39 |
| 259.26 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 1B, 2B, 3B | 271.5 | 255.59 | -3.67 |
| 291.52 | Eduardo Escobar | ARZ | 3B | 339.5 | 329.41 | 37.89 |
| 293.79 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | TEX | 3B, SS | 378.25 | 314.78 | 20.99 |
| 308.29 | Joey Wendle | TB | 2B, 3B, SS | 323.75 | 309.78 | 1.49 |
| 309.31 | Edwin Rios | LAD | 3B | 374.25 | 351.11 | 41.8 |
| 373.26 | Evan Longoria | SF | 3B | 420 | 430.52 | 57.26 |
| 380.02 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 394 | 401.96 | 21.94 |
| 389.19 | Maikel Franco | KC | 3B | 341.25 | 338.63 | -50.56 |
| 410.86 | Mike Brosseau | TB | 1B, 2B, 3B | 440.5 | 425.3 | 14.44 |
| 416.79 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 3B | 372.25 | 416.41 | -0.38 |
| 432.69 | Carter Kieboom | WAS | 3B | 470.5 | 455.74 | 23.05 |
| 458.38 | David Bote | CHC | 2B, 3B | 576.75 | 542.67 | 84.29 |
| 462.36 | Chad Pinder | OAK | 2B, 3B | 577 | 564.37 | 102.01 |
| 463.17 | Rio Ruiz | BAL | 3B | 477.25 | 486.81 | 23.64 |
| 463.48 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | TB | 3B, OF | 471 | 503.33 | 39.85 |
| 470.33 | Marwin Gonzalez | MIN | 1B, 2B, 3B, OF | 471.75 | 478.33 | 8 |
| 500.62 | Isaac Paredes | DET | 3B | 601.5 | 575.07 | 74.45 |
| 508.81 | Asdrubal Cabrera | WAS | 1B, 3B | 472.25 | 481.56 | -27.25 |
| 524.02 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 3B | 499 | 527.33 | 3.31 |
| 541.69 | Travis Shaw | TOR | 1B, 3B | 435.5 | 477.11 | -64.58 |
| 552.07 | Matt Carpenter | STL | 3B | 588.5 | 606.78 | 54.71 |
| 552.1 | Erik Gonzalez | PIT | 3B, SS | 697.5 | 636.3 | 84.2 |
| 565.67 | Brad Miller | STL | 3B | 617.75 | 615.85 | 50.18 |
| 569.19 | Nolan Jones | CLE | 3B | 672 | 620.67 | 51.48 |
| 594.71 | Jedd Gyorko | MLW | 1B, 3B | 631.75 | 616.37 | 21.66 |
| 605.67 | Josh Harrison | WAS | 2B, 3B | 657.75 | 673.96 | 68.29 |
| 613.67 | Josh Jung | TEX | 3B | 729.5 | 733.19 | 119.52 |
| 626 | Jake Lamb | OAK | 1B, 3B | 676.5 | 656.3 | 30.3 |
| 627.21 | Abraham Toro | HOU | 3B | 632 | 614.3 | -12.91 |
| 648.14 | Johan Camargo | ATL | 2B, 3B | 683.25 | 698.59 | 50.45 |
| 648.4 | Yolmer Sanchez | BAL | 3B | NA | NA | #VALUE! |
| 719.14 | Phillip Evans | PIT | 3B | 738.5 | 736.07 | 16.93 |
| 726.21 | Todd Frazier | NYM | 1B, 3B | NA | 737.04 | 10.83 |
| 733.98 | Joe Panik | TOR | 2B, 3B, SS | 720.25 | 734.3 | 0.32 |
| 734.31 | Jonathan India | CIN | 3B | 691.5 | 749.44 | 15.13 |
| 736.36 | Eric Sogard | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 735.5 | 749.3 | 12.94 |
| 737.17 | Jason Vosler | SF | 3B | NA | NA | NA |
| 740.4 | Nolan Gorman | STL | 3B | NA | 733.74 | -6.66 |
| 745.86 | Ehire Adrianza | MIN | 3B, SS | NA | 750.59 | 4.73 |
| 746.12 | Wyatt Mathisen | ARZ | 3B | NA | 724.59 | -21.53 |
| 748.55 | Adeiny Hechavarria | ATL | 2B, 3B | -748.55 | ||
| 750.26 | Brandon Drury | TOR | 3B | NA | NA | NA |
| NA | Brock Holt | WAS | 3B, OF | NA | 748.96 | NA |
| NA | Jose Rojas | LAA | 3B | NA | NA | NA |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Looking at this list….I see opportunity in Nolan Jones, Moncada, and maybe Jeimer Candelario for undervalue plays in the A.L universe.