Archive for 2021

2021 Closer Tiers

Closers are a mess this year. Sure, that was probably last year’s intro (well, I didn’t do this article, but I definitely commented about how 2020’s pool was a mess, too) and 2019’s and perhaps even 2018’s as managers have become smarter with reliever usage meaning they will use their best guys in the highest leverage situations more often as opposed to just saving them for the ninth. This presents an interesting conundrum wherein I appreciate the usage on a baseball level because it is absolutely the right way to manage a bullpen, but I hate it from a fantasy perspective because it adds more uncertainty to an already volatile part of our game.

The Tampa Bay Rays are obviously the gold standard here. Is “gold standard” the right phrase for this? Do you want to be the gold standard for pissing off fantasy managers? Let’s be honest, they don’t care and they definitely shouldn’t, they are just trying to get wins. Anyway, the Rays have set the bar here and other teams are following suit because frankly it works. I don’t subscribe to the idea that literally anyone can close, but I also realize that many more relievers are cut out for it than the consensus believed 5+ years ago when many more teams had a locked in 9th-inning guy.

Nick Anderson has a case as the very best reliever in baseball and yet he notched just six saves in 2020 with Diego Castillo getting four and 10 other relievers getting 1-2. In 11 of his 19 appearances, the Rays deployed Anderson in the 7th or 8th inning with the remaining eight being in the 9th or later (didn’t pitch until the 10th in one game and actually took the loss). No other team is as extreme as Tampa Bay, but there are a few assumed closers heading into 2021 who could get the Anderson treatment and their ranking will reflect that.

Jump to any Tier:

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Episode w/ Anthony Bass (Miami Marlins)

The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Anthony Bass, Relief Pitcher on the Miami Marlins

Interview

  • The 2020 season experience
  • The current offseason
  • Differences in pitching philosophies between ball clubs
  • Pitching in Japan
  • Learning the split finger from teammate Shohei Ohtani
  • Preparing for a game – as a starting pitcher vs. a relief pitcher
  • Incorporating anlaytics into pitching preparation in 2021
  • Bass’s change-up
  • Past pitching coaches
  • Marlins to watch out for in 2021
  • Pitchers innings limits in 2021
  • Bass’s pitching role on the Marlins
  • Don Mattingly
  • How the NL East will shape up in 2021

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00:18:21

Thrifting with Prospects

Last week I did a podcast where I went thrift shopping with The BAT X to find some bargain players with strong projections, but this isn’t that. Maybe I could’ve come up with a different name to avoid the potential confusion, though this intro should suffice. What we are doing here today is checking out some prospects who have seen their prices plummet.

Oftentimes prospects are super hyped before they even step foot on a major league field as we can dream on them and wishcast them to be the next huge breakout from day 1. That love is fleeting, though, and when a prospect struggles upon arrival the fantasy community has been known to turn their back on them swiftly and severely. It’s on to the next one for so many which creates a buying opportunity if you still believe and you usually should as these prospects are rarely given a real sample of work before sinking down draft boards.

All five of these one-time mega prospects are going pick 250 or later and have fewer than 500 MLB plate appearances under their belt. They might not hold quite as much hype as they did at their peak while prospects, but there is still a lot of upside in all five bats.

Gavin Lux – 2B – LAD | 2021 ADP: 251 | Last Top 100 Rank: #2 (2020)

Lux has just 151 PA over the last two seasons, posting just a 76 wRC+ with 5 HR and 3 SB in that time. His ADP has dropped nearly 100 picks from last year due in part to the lack of instant success and the fact that he doesn’t have a clear hold on playing time heading into 2021. The continued presence of Chris Taylor and re-signing of Justin Turner leave Lux on the bench hoping for a super utility sort of role, though manager Dave Roberts brightened the outlook in early March with comments about his playing time:

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Relief Pitcher Episode w/ Alex Fast

The Relief Pitcher Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Alex Fast

LABR Recap

  • Reactions to the LABR Mixed Auction League Draft

Strategy Section

  • Closers
    • How should we draft closers in 2021?
    • What closer tiers are the best return on investments?
    • Is it better to pick a named closer on a bad team or an uncertain closer on a good team?
  • Relievers
    • How should we set ourselves up for in-season play with relief pitchers?
    • How much are reliever ratios a consideration while drafting, as opposed to only considering the closers role (saves)?
    • When should you draft a valuable middle reliever over a named closer?

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00:49:57

Peripheral Prospects of 2019, but for 2021

In 2019, Brad Johnson and I published a weekly series in which we, each on a semiweekly basis, identified three or four or five players in the Minor Leagues who (1) had not appeared on previous top-prospect lists and (2) appeared to us to be capable of producing admirably, perhaps significantly, at the big-league level at some point for fantasy purposes.

Because of an actual force majeure (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic), Peripheral Prospects was rendered temporarily null as the Minor League Baseball season was cancelled. Alas, we published nothing about peripheral prospects. But that does not mean peripheral prospects did not thrive! Peripheral prospects indeed thrived.

I figured it would behoove me to not only review my favorite peripheral prospects from the end of 2019 but also highlight my favorite (existing) peripheral prospects heading into 2021, before a whole new batch of peripheral prospects is anointed. Yesterday, I revisited my 10 favorites from 2019; today, I’ll highlight another 10 eight whose progress I’m eager to monitor in 2021.

Presented in chronological order (and not by favoritism):

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Injury Episode w/ Stephania Bell

The Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Stephania Bell of ESPN

Tommy John Surgery

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00:57:39

Beat the Shift Podcast – Catcher & Utility-Only Episode w/ Ryan Bloomfield

The Catcher & Utility-Only Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ryan Bloomfield

Strategy Section

  • Catchers
    • How to account for Positional Scarcity with Catchers
    • Differences between 1-Catcher Leagues and 2-Catcher Leagues
    • Streaming Catchers
    • Is J.T. Realmuto worth his current draft price?
  • Utility-Only Players
    • Are Utility-Only players undervalued in drafts?
    • “Clogging the Utility Slot”
    • Utility-Only players to gain positional eligibility

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01:25:56

Beat the Shift Podcast – NFBC & Outfielder Episode w/ Matt Modica

The NFBC & Outfielder Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Matt Modica

Strategy Section

  • NFBC
    • Differences between NFBC (High stakes) vs. Home Leagues
    • Standalone Leagues vs. Leagues with an Overall Prize
    • NFBC Specific Rules
      • Limited Bench
      • No Injured List
      • No Trading
      • Semi-Weekly Lineups for Hitters
    • Are Multi-Position Eligible players more valuable?
    • Pitching is greatly pushed up in NFBC leagues
      • Is it warranted?
      • Should you follow the crowd, or alter your strategy to zag?
      • Should a super elite pitcher (deGrom/Cole) be taken #1 overall?
    • NFBC Draft Planning
    • KDS

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01:16:16

Beat the Shift Podcast – Auction Strategy Episode w/ Derek VanRiper

The Auction Strategy Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek VanRiper

Strategy Section

  • Auction Strategy
    • How Snake Drafts & Auctions differ in preparation.
    • Constructing Auction Values
      • Should you strictly hold to values?
      • What to use as a Hitter/Pitcher % split?
    • Generating Market Values
    • Nomination Strategies
      • General – It has to have a purpose.
      • Should you nominate players you want to buy, or players that you believe are overvalued?
      • The Economic Box
    • Bidding
      • Starting Bids
      • Jump Bids
      • Price Enforcing
      • The ‘9’s
    • Draft Inflation

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1:31:18

Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode (Part II) w/ Nick Pollack

The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part II) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Strategy Section

  • Simple analytics vs. advanced analytics.
  • Offseason information – what is noise, what is real?
  • Blind spots of projections for pitchers.
  • 2021 Season
    • 6-man roations
    • Starting pitcher inning limits
    • The Tampa Bay Rays
    • What if the season is delayed?
    • Ramp-up from 2020 short season

Starting Pitcher Strategy

  • General strategy
  • Pitchers that we would more likely roster in auctions vs. snake drafts (& vice versa).

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01:49:47